Friday, March 10, 2006

Musical Interlude

I don’t have much substance to offer amid the tourney mayhem. I’ll get something up Sunday with comments about the last few days in addition to some bracket predictions. A couple of early ones: the Valley will get five bids and Gonzaga will slip to a 3 seed.

For those of you wanting a tourney prediction method or something along those lines, check out what the folks at TeamRankings are doing with BracketBrains. A portion of the proceeds go to a good cause - me!

As a belated gift to SEC fans, Dave Gallagher submitted these log5-based chances on the SEC Tournament.

                 Quarters  Semis   Final   Champ
E2 Florida        100.00%  61.71%  36.06%  22.93%
W1 LSU            100.00%  71.00%  35.62%  21.63%
E1 Tennessee      100.00%  67.15%  40.32%  18.74%
E3 Kentucky        85.96%  53.58%  27.53%  11.77%
W3 Arkansas        81.78%  35.62%  18.61%  10.71%
W2 Alabama        100.00%  43.44%  17.09%   5.35%
E5 South Carolina  68.38%  25.90%  12.47%   4.34%
E4 Vanderbilt      72.43%  24.51%   8.40%   3.74%
W4 Mississippi St. 31.62%   6.95%   2.12%   0.43%
W5 Auburn          27.57%   4.49%   0.76%   0.18%
E6 Georgia         18.22%   2.67%   0.55%   0.13% 
W6 Mississippi     14.04%   2.99%   0.46%   0.05%

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

A Log5 Cabin

Thanks to Richard Lipp and Ed Malczewski for contributing a log5 version of tournament odds for the Big 12 and Big Ten, respectively. Head on over to the Phog Blog for the Big 12 numbers. The Big Ten is below.

Seed             Quarters Semis  Finals Champ 
  1  Ohio St.     100.00% 85.42% 60.64% 34.76% 
  3  Illinois     100.00% 70.74% 44.41% 26.03% 
  2  Iowa         100.00% 66.76% 31.74% 16.24% 
  4  Wisconsin    100.00% 55.90% 20.76%  7.95% 
  6  Michigan St.  84.23% 27.92% 12.84%  5.43% 
  5  Indiana      100.00% 44.10% 14.23%  4.70% 
  7  Michigan      63.24% 23.72%  8.46%  3.33% 
 10  Minnesota     36.76%  9.51%  2.35%  0.66% 
  9  Northwestern  58.43%  9.52%  3.09%  0.66% 
  8  Penn St.      41.57%  5.06%  1.29%  0.21% 
 11  Purdue        15.77%  1.34%  0.19%  0.02%

Line o’ the Night

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T  A F  S TO BLK Pts
Morris Almond          38 12-17  3-4  1-2  2-7  0 1  5  2  0   28
Result: Loss. SMU 61, Rice 59. 

I’d pay to see a one-on-one game between Morris Almond and Morris Chestnut.

New vs. Old RPI

While you’re waiting impatiently (You are impatient, right? Tell me you are. Please.) for my latest at espn.com to get posted, you can check out our boy Yoni’s piece on how the road rage RPI is possibly affecting the selection process. Let’s just say the CAA will owe a big thank you to the new formula if they get an at-large bid or two.

Also, reader Sean McGrath took the log5 formula and applied it to the Pythagorean Ratings to come up with some probabilities for the Big East and ACC tourneys. Enjoy.

Seed Team         Quarters Semis  Finals Champion
  1  UConn         100.00% 81.66% 61.21%  39.71%
  2  Villanova     100.00% 80.60% 52.64%  28.00%
  6  Pitsburgh      66.54% 37.86% 17.53%   7.66%
  3  West Virginia 100.00% 48.79% 19.52%   7.33%
  4  Marquette     100.00% 47.14% 14.17%   5.34%
  5  Georgetown     55.89% 30.99% 10.67%   4.56%
 12  Notre Dame     44.11% 21.86%  6.50%   2.42%
 11  Louisville     33.46% 13.35%  4.19%   1.22%
  8  Cincinnati     57.95% 11.77%  5.10%   1.70%
 10  Rutgers        51.81% 10.33%  3.33%   0.80%
  9  Syracuse       42.05%  6.57%  2.35%   0.63%
  7  Seton Hall     48.19%  9.06%  2.79%   0.63%

Seed Team         Quarters Semis  Finals Champion
  1  Duke          100.00% 83.06% 65.29%  40.83%
  2  UNC           100.00% 84.94% 66.47%  38.08%
  3  Boston Col.   100.00% 61.49% 18.74%   6.11%
  4  NC State      100.00% 54.43% 15.37%   5.34%
  5  Florida St.    67.02% 34.33% 10.01%   3.58%
  6  Maryland       61.73% 26.40%  6.65%   1.80%
  9  Clemson        51.78%  9.02%  3.97%   1.15%
  8  Miami          48.22%  7.92%  3.35%   0.93%
 10  Va. Tech       53.86%  8.60%  3.54%   0.81%
  7  Virginia       46.14%  6.46%  2.42%   0.50%
 12  Wake Forest    32.98% 11.24%  1.99%   0.45%
 11  Georgia Tech   38.27% 12.12%  2.18%   0.42%

Line o’ the Night

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T  A F  S TO BLK Pts
Karandick Ogunride     32  5-10  0-0  8-12 9-16 0 0  2  4  0   18
Result: Win. Norfolk St. 73, UMES 71.