Friday, March 17, 2006

Game o’ the Day: Memphis vs. Oral Roberts

Let’s make something clear first. I am not predicting an upset here. I don’t do silly things like prognosticate. All I am saying is that it is a realistic possibility. I still stand by the 1-in-15 estimate from Monday. Vegas says Memphis is a 12-13 point favorite, and if you know anything about Vegas’ accuracy, then 1-in-15 is a good estimate based on the spread. All that means is that Oral Roberts must play one of its best 4 or 5 games of the year while Memphis plays one of its 4 or 5 worst. Clearly, if Memphis plays to its ability, there will be no suspense in this one. But here’s what has to happen for the upset to occur.

When Memphis has the ball…

           Memphis     ORU  
           Offense   Defense
Adj. Eff.     39       128    

Shooting     105        54
Turnovers    159       201
Rebounding     5        72
Free Throws   85        14
3FGA/FGA     131       278
Block %       92        79

I’ve seen people compare a bunch of raw stats between the teams to suggest this is going to be a really close game. While Memphis does not play in a very good conference, their overall schedule was significantly tougher than Oral Roberts. But these stats do tell an accurate story of the Memphis offense. They don’t shoot all that well, and commit turnovers with surprising frequency. Their specialty is crashing the boards. I mentioned Monday that a zone is surprisingly effective. Even if ORU doesn’t play zone, they should do everything in their power to encourage players not named Rodney Carney to shoot jump shots.

When Oral Roberts has the ball…

             ORU     Memphis
           Offense   Defense
Adj. Eff.    121         7    

Shooting      97         2
Turnovers    144        67
Rebounding    40        65
Free Throws   76       274
3FGA/FGA     246       104
Block %        5         8

Memphis wins with defense. John Calipari runs so many bodies out there that his players can be very aggressive. This results in sending opponents to the line far too often, but pays dividends in every other area. Memphis has the 8th best block rate in the country, but Oral Roberts is 5th best at avoiding blocks. ORU has some athleticism and decent size. They won’t be intimidated by Memphis. Furthermore, their frontline gets to the line in heavy doses, especially Caleb Green who is among the best in the nation at that (301 FTAs, 73.2 FTRate).

So here’s the recipe for an upset:

1) ORU must make a few threes. They have a couple of 40+% 3-point shooters. Slashing two-guard Ken Tutt will get a bunch of minutes. Chris Riouse is a role player off the bench and his role is strictly to shoot 3-pointers. They aren’t going to get the volume of good looks they’re used to (Memphis has the 6th best 3-point FG defense), so they’ll have to make some tough shots.

2) Get to the line a bunch. Caleb Green averages 20 a game, and a lot of those points come at the line. He should be able to get his usual production.

3) Force Memphis into jumpers. Memphis is a decent 3-point shooting team, but if they are allowed to slash to the hoop, the defense is in trouble. Even if the penetration results in a miss, it usually means second and third opportunities. East Carolina hung with Memphis for 35 minutes playing a zone. ORU may well stick to a man defense, but it better be a soft man.

Even if Oral Roberts accomplishes all of those things, they still need Memphis to be off their game. But if fellow conference-dominators GW and Gonzaga taught us anything yesterday, it’s that the lack of competition over a prolonged period can take its toll. 

Charting Thursday’s Games

Wichita State 86, Seton Hall 66 [72 possessions] - Amid all of the Selection Show hullabaloo, it was mostly lost that Seton Hall had quite a shaky case for an at-large. With a bid seemingly on the line, they went to MSG and got beat easily by Rutgers. Wichita State has a great chance to get by Tennessee and into the Sweet 16. Later in the day, Dick Enberg drinks the Billy Packer Kool-Aid and states that this was an upset. Um, it wasn’t an upset by seeding or according to Vegas. Big East 0-1.

UW Milwaukee 82, Oklahoma 74 [73] - Tim Brando noted how Oklahoma’s four consecutive one-point victories prepared them well for the rigors of NCAA Tournament play. I realize that’s a common notion, but all those close wins did was obscure the cracks in Oklahoma’s defensive infrastructure and make this seem like more of an upset than it was.

Boston College 88, Pacific 76 [71, 2OT] - BC’s defense had a so-so performance. Pacific settled for 3s a lot more than usual, but got a series of open looks at the end of regulation and in the first overtime. The Eagles are fortunate to move on, and now only have to beat Montana to make it to week 2.

Tennessee 63, Winthrop 61 [63] - A ton of people were calling for the upset in this one and it nearly happened. Tennessee is going nowhere in this tournament.

Alabama 90, Marquette 85 [68] - Jean Felix has been a bricklayer most of the season (29.6% from 3 coming in), but he returned to his 2005 form (45.3%) for one game with 31 points on 8-of-11 from 3. Big East 0-2.

Florida 76, South Alabama 50 [67] - Along with UCLA, the most impressive performance of the day. The Gators big men, Al Horford and Joakim Noah, combine for 12 assists.

Montana 87, Nevada 79 [67] - The most surprising outcome of the day, in my opinion. Montana torches Nevada for 57.1% in eFG terms.

UCLA 78, Belmont 44 [70] - Total and utter destruction. Power to the Pac 10! Belmont’s Boomer Herndon, the national OR% champ, grabs only one offensive rebound during the game, a put-back that helped build an early 18-12 lead. The losing Bruins shot 32.2% eFG.

LSU 80, Iona 64 [74] - Kudos to Iona for hanging in for a half. LSU coasts to victory with only 19 minutes of Tyrus Thomas.

George Washington 88, UNC Wilmington 85 [71, OT] - GW puts together a 19-0 run in the second half to overcome an 18-point deficit. You have to think Duke would have much rather faced the more methodical and perimeter-oriented UNCW.

Gonzaga 79, Xavier 75 [65] - A high-scoring close game. Who would have guessed that? The Zags overcame serious foul trouble to Raivio and Batista to pull this out late. The notable moment during this game was when a “Tournament Summary” graphic indicated the Big East was 2-0 so far. Is Billy P. moonlighting on the CBS production crew?

Illinois 78, Air Force 69 [60] - Seeing all of the possession stuff in SI made me think the movement was gaining momentum. But it took exactly seven minutes of CBS tournament coverage for Clark Kellogg to blurt out that Air Force had a tremendous defense as evidenced by their nation leading points per game total. Truth is, the Falcons’ defense rarely holds up against a decent offense, and that was their undoing in this one. Now the Air Force offense, that’s something to admire. A 115 offensive efficiency against the 14th-best defense, and doing it by getting one offensive rebound for the whole game? There isn’t another team this side of Morgantown that could have pulled that off.

Texas A&M 66, Syracuse 58 [61] - If you want a true example of a team that wins with D, it’s Texas A&M. Should be a fun game against LSU. Big East 0-3.

Indiana 87, San Diego State 81 [69] - These two were the circus clowns of the field. Both teams are occasionally entertaining, but you can’t take either seriously. And the last 25 seconds were representative of that notion, with bad and occasionally stupid play resulting in a thrilling finish.

Duke 70, Southern 54 [68] - A systematic victory. But Duke did get outrebounded by Southern (38.1% to 36.0%) and committed more turnovers (20 to 16).

Washington 75, Utah State 61 [65] - Theoretically, a very interesting battle of styles between fast Washington and slow Utah State. The game action left a lot to be desired. At the 15:00 mark, it was 2-0 Washington. The UW victory creates a battle of second-tier heavyweights on Saturday as the Huskies tangle with Illinois.

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Game o’ the Day: Boston College vs. Pacific

Old-timey basketball fans that lament the present-day lack of teamwork in the sport haven’t seen Boston College play. The Eagles aren’t very athletic, but score at will against just about everybody thanks to a five-man unit that can all dish the rock.

Old-timey fans that decry the lack of defense in the modern game probably shouldn’t pay much attention to BC. An opponent with a competent offense shouldn’t struggle to do better than a point per possession against the Eagles.

Yet BC has become a popular choice to escape the Minneapolis bracket. Most of ESPN’s experts have picked BC, and they’ve even bought in down in ACC Country. But it seems that the Eagles will have to make some stops if they are going to go far. Even though their offense was excellent in the ACC Tourney, their defense was shredded by UNC and Duke.

So that brings us to today at 12:20 PM, when BC embarks on a potential journey to the Final Four with a game against Pacific. Here’s a breakdown of the game.

First, when BC has the ball…

              BC     Pacific
           Offense   Defense
Adj. Eff.      5        75    

Shooting      14        54
Turnovers    105       201
Rebounding    11        72
Free Throws   40        14
3FGA/FGA     243       278

The teams are polar opposites (or mirror images?). What BC likes to do, Pacific specializes in preventing. Where Pacific is weak defensively, BC is also weak on offense.

BC has an excellent eFG% without much benefit of the 3-pointer. Pacific is better at defending inside the arc, and opponents have launched a lot of 3s against them as a result (lower ranks in 3FGA/FGA defense means more 3FGAs allowed). As a result of pounding it inside, BC gets a good chunk of its offense from free throws. Pacific’s front line isn’t all that big with nobody taller than 6-9. They don’t block many shots but they should be able to hold their own on the defensive boards.

Individually, BC is fairly balanced offensively. Jared Dudley (120.1 ORtg/22.8% Poss) and Craig Smith (117.3/24.4) lead the way. But unlike last season, BC has a diverse 3-point arsenal, with each of the players in its occasional three-guard lineup able to knock down a bomb.

One reason why BC is so effective at offensive rebounding is that shooting guard Sean Marshall has racked up an incredible 9.3% offensive rebounding percentage. The only player BC puts on the floor that is offensive dead weight is the center, which is usually John Oates (104.9/12.7). It could be Daryl Hall and it wouldn’t make any difference.

Now, when Pacific has the ball…

           Pacific      BC  
           Offense   Defense
Adj. Eff.     59       101    

Shooting      17       135
Turnovers     33       237
Rebounding   240       255
Free Throws  131        52
3FGA/FGA     225        59

This is where Pacific will have to get it done if it wants to make a game of this. BC is poor at forcing turnovers, while Pacific takes good care of the ball. A single-digit turnover game is a good starting point. While Pacific doesn’t normally grab many offensive boards, they should have some opportunities against BC. Pacific, like BC, refuses to settle for jumpers even though they have a couple of good shooters. And BC doesn’t typically allow many 3s, although opponents are accurate from there (37.3%) when they shoot it. Assuming they don’t commit many turnovers and get a few offensive boards, it should be a productive game for the Tigers.

If there’s one name you’re familiar with from Pacific, it’s Christian Maraker (111.0/26.9), a 6-9 forward. But Pacific is not a one-trick pony offensively. Point guard Johnny Gray is a also an efficient, high usage scorer (111.8/22.4, 42.8% on 3s), and center Michael White isn’t too shabby either (112.3/20.0). Also helping the efficiency equation is that four of the starters shoot better than 82% from the line, even though they don’t get to the line real often.

One other thing that works in the favor of a close game is that the pace figures to be very slow. Pacific is 266th in tempo, BC is 301st. This game will be short - probably in the neighborhood of between 58 and 64 possessions. So keep that in mind when you see the final score. If Pacific can get to 70 points, it may not be enough for the win, but it will add a little more confirmation that BC’s defensive issues are what will keep them from the Final Four.