Most recent entries

  • Week in Review, 11/20-11/26
  • Week in Review, 11/13-11/19
  • Early hot take on the new rules
  • #ShootersClub 2016
  • Which two teams last lost longest ago? (‘15 edition)
  • 2016 preseason ratings
  • Offense vs. Defense: Block percentage
  • Offense vs. Defense: Steals
  • Offense vs. Defense: Free throw rate
  • Offense vs. Defense: Turnover percentage
  • The good stuff

    At other venues...
  • ($)
  • Deadspin
  • Slate

  • Strategy
  • Whether to foul up 3 late
  • The value of 2-for-1’s
  • Whether to foul when tied (1, 2, 3)
  • Who's the best in-game coach?

  • Philosophy
  • All points are not created equal
  • Brady Heslip’s non-slump
  • The magic of negative motivation
  • A treatise on plus-minus
  • The preseason AP poll is great
  • The lack of information in close-game performance
  • Why I don’t believe in clutchness*

  • Fun stuff
  • The missing 1-point games
  • Which two teams last lost longest ago?
  • How many first-round picks will Kentucky have?
  • Prepare for the Kobe invasion
  • Predicting John Henson's free throw percentage
  • Can Derrick Williams set the three-point accuracy record?
  • Play-by-play Theater: earliest disqualification
  • Monthly Archives

  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • July 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • November 2010
  • October 2010
  • August 2010
  • July 2010
  • June 2010
  • May 2010
  • April 2010
  • March 2010
  • February 2010
  • January 2010
  • December 2009
  • November 2009
  • October 2009
  • July 2009
  • February 2009
  • January 2009
  • December 2008
  • November 2008
  • October 2007
  • September 2007
  • July 2007
  • June 2007
  • May 2007
  • April 2007
  • March 2007
  • February 2007
  • January 2007
  • December 2006
  • November 2006
  • October 2006
  • September 2006
  • August 2006
  • July 2006
  • June 2006
  • May 2006
  • April 2006
  • March 2006
  • February 2006
  • January 2006
  • December 2005
  • November 2005
  • October 2005
  • September 2005
  • August 2005
  • July 2005
  • June 2005
  • May 2005
  • April 2005
  • March 2005
  • February 2005
  • January 2005
  • December 2004
  • November 2004
  • October 2004
  • September 2004
  • August 2004
  • July 2004
  • June 2004
  • May 2004
  • April 2004
  • March 2004
  • February 2004
  • January 2004
  • December 2003
  • November 2003

  • RSS feed

    All For One

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, February 28, 2006

    So Oklahoma pulled off an astounding fourth straight one-point victory last night. This hasn’t been done before in the limited data I have. Three straight one-point wins has only been done once since the ‘99 season - two years ago by High Point. If you have followed this streak, you have seen some examples of how luck is a large factor in determining the outcome of close games. As a further demonstration, I pulled every occurrence of a team playing two consecutive one-point games in the last eight seasons. Here were the results:

    Record Times 2-0 43 1-1 84 0-2 33

    This works out almost the way a coin flip situation should. You’d expect 25% in each of the first and last bins and 50% in the middle one. Take 3 each from the 2-0 and 1-1 and put them in the 0-2 and that’s exactly what you would have.…



    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, February 27, 2006

    Unfortunately, defensive stats are not to the point where I can consistently honor defensive specialists in a Line o’ the Night. But Saturday was a day for defenders to shine in obvious ways.

    Temple’s Dustin Salisbery shut down J.J. Redick to the tune of 11 points on 3-for-10 shooting. Hey, give John Chaney credit. His teams have given up the highest percentage of opponents points on three-pointers this season (to go with a #2 ranking last season, and #1 in ‘04). So this figured to be a game where J.J. would get his looks. But the typically stubborn Chaney showed some flexibility by using a lot of box-and-one, and when he used a straight zone, extending it farther than normal.

    San Diego’s Corey Belser once again slowed down Adam Morrison. Morrison also tallied 11 points on 3-for-11 shooting. In five career games against Belser, Morrison has been held to…


    A Look Back

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, February 24, 2006

    Back on January 5th, I jotted down some of the more unusual developments in our little Pythagorean baby. Let’s go back and look at how some of the surprising conference frontrunners have fared now that the regular season is drawing to a close. All preseason predictions cited come from Blue Ribbon.

    A-10: Xavier.

    Nice collapse by Xavier. You have to consider their season a disappointment.

    Big Ten: Illinois, with Indiana a close second.

    Illinois has struggled of late, but I wouldn’t give up on them just yet. But Ohio State has made a good case as the Big Ten’s best. And Indiana is right up there with Xavier in terms of collapses. Another point is that Pythag was down on Michigan State and they haven’t consistently shown themselves to be of Final Four quality.

    Big XII: Texas by a lot, but Colorado is a comfortable second.

    Sheesh. Well, Colorado…


    Loaded Brackets

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, February 23, 2006


    I just reviewed Joe Lunardi’s 2/20/06 bracket projection on  In general those projections usually look like a fair comparison to how the committee would seed the teams at that particular point in time.  I think that’s again the case with his 2/20/06 bracket.  However, I have to laugh when I see that Duke is seeded #1 in the Atlanta bracket.  While that’s great for Duke in terms of geography, I’m not so sure they wouldn’t rather be out West.  The Atlanta bracket includes 7 of the top 13 pythag winning% teams (Duke, Kansas, Ohio St, Pitt, North Carolina, Washington, and LSU).  I’m not a Duke fan, but I’ve got think Coach K would rather swap brackets with Memphis who’s slated to be in the Oakland bracket.

    It seems like a way around this would be to either (1) have you slot the tournament teams, or (2) have the committee…


    A Crying Notre Shame

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, February 22, 2006

    My savant skills tell me Notre Dame will be the best team left out of March Madness. In fact, there will probably be 5 to 10 at-large teams that are worse than the Irish. They have outscored conference opponents by 33 points, suggesting an 8-5 record would be more appropriate than the 4-9 one they own after last night’s loss to UConn.

    The Irish have one of the best backcourts in the country, and their offense is smoking hot. Last night was a classic example of how raw FG% can mislead you about a team’s performance. ND shot 31 of 82, for 37.8%, yet was outstanding offensively. Any time you can put up a point per possession on UConn, you have done well. The reason they got there was 16 offensive boards and only 4 turnovers. Then throw in that 10 of the made field goals were threes, and you…


    My Best Shot

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, February 21, 2006

    First off, I kind of screwed up my RPI analysis of conferences yesterday. Let’s just say that the old RPI values were off, and basically conference rank wasn’t affected much by BracketBusters. Serves me right for trying to talk about RPI.

    Second, I’m getting tired of hearing how certain teams get everyone’s “best shot”. As Gonzaga repeatedly struggles to put away the lesser competition in the WCC, analysts with high expectations for them excuse their performance with the best shot theory. But if you buy this line of reasoning, I’d say you’re on shaky ground, because what are Gonzaga’s opponents - of better quality - going to give them in March? I would say their “best shot”. And if you believe that Gonzaga will succeed against the better opponents’ best shot, you must then believe that Gonzaga themselves is not giving it their best shot in a few of these…


    BracketBusters Scoreboard

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, February 20, 2006

    A breakdown of conferences that played 5 or more games in the BracketBusters:

     RPI Pvs Now CAA 6-2 11 10 WAC 6-3 9 9 Big West 5-3 28 24 MVC 5-5 5 6 OVC 5-6 18 20 Horizon 4-5 14 15 MAC 5-7 15 16 MAAC 4-6 10 13

    George Mason and Missouri State were the top two BracketBuster teams in efficiency (adjusted Pythagorean) going into the weekend, and both got big road wins. They each control their own destiny for an at-large bid. Avoid bad losses and each is in.

    On a non-BracketBusters note, Texas was tops in efficiency and got blitzed by 13-12 Oklahoma State. On Saturday, Kansas travels to Texas in a game that should decide the Big XII regular season. It will be a game that features the #1 and #4 defenses in the nation, and can be considered close to a toss-up at this…


    Mo’ Powe

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, February 17, 2006

                               FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                          Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
    Leon Powe              38 10-14  0-0 10-14 6-10  2 2 0  3  0   30
    Result: Win. California 75, Arizona 66.


    Dan Grunfeld had a better shooting night (9-11 FGs, 11-11 FTs, 31 pts) in Stanford’s win over Arizona State. But this is more like a season-long achievement award for Powe. He has repeatedly had quality lines, but there’s always someone that does a little better. Grunfeld had easily his best game of the season, while Powe is doing something like the above all the time. Powe gets to the free throw line just as often as he did as a freshman (FTRate of 72.4 this season compared to 70.4 as a frosh), but he’s improved his free throw shooting from 61.0% to 69.7%.


    Scorekeeper’s Bias

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, February 16, 2006

    Ken- Love your website.  I visit it regularly, even though I’m on the women’s side of college basketball. That said, I saw an amazing box score last night.  Florida’s women’s team scored 63 points, won by 15… yet only had 3 assists. I thought that’d make an interesting scavenger hunt for your readers… what is the highest point total a team has ever scored with 3 or fewer assists?  I can’t imagine it topping the 63 by the Lady Gators. Regards, Andy Demetra Broadcaster University of South Carolina women’s basketball

    This was a seemingly innocuous question, but it turned up an interesting find. The two worst assist outputs of the season occurred in the SWAC, and they both occurred at Jackson State. But it’s not a coincidence.

    Counting stats at a basketball game is to some degree subjective. Arguably, the most subjective element is how to record assists. There…


    109-108…In Regulation!

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, February 15, 2006

                               FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                          Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
    DeWitt Maxwell         36 10-13  0-0  7-9  8-12  3 3 1  3  6   27
    Result: Win. Fairfield 109, St. Peter's 108.

    There were only about 80 possessions in this contest, so basically it had less defense than a high school all-star game. At least Maxwell contributed some blocks.


    Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 >