Pitt ‘06 != BC ‘05
01.31.06
There have been a few comparisons made between this season’s Pitt squad and last season’s Boston College team. To refresh your memory, here are the similarites:
- Both are/were Big East teams.
- Both were expected to finish in the middle of the conference (Blue Ribbon had each forecasted for 6th).
- Both had a weak non-conference schedule.
- Both were among the last three unbeatens nationally.
BC went 5-5 after a 20-0 start, losing in the first round of the Big East Tournament and in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to a 12-seed. Ergo, it is implied Pitt may be headed for a similar fate, or at least you should be wary about projecting much success for them.
But I say, buy into Pitt. These teams are different. I wasn’t running the Pythagorean rankings last season, but I was curious where BC would have been at this time in 2005, when they were 18-0 and ranked #5 in the AP poll. Turns out they were 21st in Pythagorean. Pitt currently ranks 10th.
BC really played down to weaker competition a lot during the win streak. Pitt isn’t doing that. The Panthers will lose a few the rest of the way - the Big East will do that to everyone. But don’t slap the “overrated” label on them yet.
Line o’ the Night
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Aaron Gray 33 7-10 0-0 9-10 4-12 3 4 0 3 2 23
Result: Loss. Connecticut 80, Pittsburgh 76.
Gray is the best overall rebounder in the country - 7th in OR% and 3rd in DR%. And if you can rebound against UConn, you can rebound against anyone.
Questions, Questions, Questions
So this e-mail is from, um, some…body. It never hurts to sign your name, people.
Ken,
There are a few question i was hoping you could help me out with. First, I was wondering if you knew what the record is for most 40 point games in a season? Also, who you thought this year’s player of the year is? Finally, i was wondering how good a pro you think Rudy Gay will be. Personally I don’t see much from him other than his great athleticism, and without an outside shot i see him more as a Stromile Swift than a Tracy McGrady.
Record for 40 point games: Don’t know. But considering Pete Maravich averaged 40 ppg for his career, I doubt either Redick or Morrison is very close to a new record.
Player of the year: Based on last week’s performance, I’ll side with Redick for the next few days. His numbers are similar to Morrison’s, but against better competition. And he’s not as bad defensively as Morrison. Shelden Williams’ defensive impact is light years ahead of those two, but Redick is Duke’s #1 option offensively.
Rudy Gay: You know, UConn’s last game against Providence was Rudy Gay in a nutshell. If you watched the highlights of the game, you saw him finish two alley oops in spectacular fashion. If you looked at the box score you saw a 4-for-8 performace from the field, 2 turnovers, no assists in 25 minutes. Gay has great athleticism, is a terrific defender, can dunk with the best, but doesn’t have much scoring ability outside of 10 feet. Presumably the last item on that list is the easiest to develop, and that’s why Gay will go high in the draft.
But for my purposes, that one flaw does make UConn less scary in March. Speaking of the Huskies, has anybody noticed they are sixth from last in terms of how many threes they shoot? Calhoun’s teams never have been very dependent on the three, but this version is extreme. Seems like a nice team to zone, except that Rashad Anderson is a pretty solid long range shooter (just start him, already!), and UConn is 4th in the nation in offensive rebounding.
[And my bad on declaring Marcus Williams a sophomore in yesterday’s post.]
Line o’ the Night
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Maurice Sumter 40 12-16 3-5 1-2 0-7 2 0 0 1 0 28
Result: Win. Longwood 60, IPFW 59.
So Longwood coach Mike Gillian kind of nudged me into this one, but Sumter’s line was the best of the night, and I’d like to think I would have picked it anyway. (Honorable mention for fans of the bizarre: Brad Nuckles of ETSU with 13 boards, no points, and no assists.) Kudos to the Lancers for putting together their first D1 winning streak after the loss to Sav State. And this game does have an impact on you, believe it or not. It allows you to prove Savannah State is better than your arch rival.
Sav St. > Longwood > IPFW > Indiana State > Indiana > ???
I’ll let you take it from there, but it shouldn’t be too difficult to get to any other team from Indiana. Or you can cheat, and use Kenneth Massey’s tool. It says Sav State beats Duke by 30.
Measuring Intangibles
01.30.06
Maybe I’ll just answer e-mail the rest of the season, or at least this week. Send me your questions, criticisms, complaints, insults, etc.
Ken,
Jordan Farmar is “occasionally celebrated” because he’s just a sophomore and he is one of the reasons the Bruins continue to compete in spite of a rash of injuries. When they need a big play, he makes a big play. Efficiency stats are great but they don’t reflect intangibles, and can’t measure heart. He put the team on his back against Memphis, Arizona St., West Virginia, and Oregon. The Bruins came up short against Memphis and West Virginia, but without Jordan those games are blowouts. Here’s a description (from Bruin Basketball Report) of Jordan’s game against Oregon St. which encapsulates what he means to the Bruins:
[Sophomore Jordan Farmar showed again why he is one of the top point guards in the nation. Whenever the Bruins needed a score in the game Farmar would hit a jumper, drive for a basket, or pass an open man for an easy score. He finished with 13 points, 8 assists, and committed only 1 turnover in the game.]Stan
This is email is in response to my criticism of Farmar in this post.
Let me straighten out a couple of things first. I never suggested UCLA would be better without Farmar. Of course, he is a big reason for their continued success without Josh Shipp, and the Bruins would collapse without his presence.
Having said that, our e-mailer is right that I’m not much for talking about heart and intangibles. I leave that for Johnny Analyst, who “knows the game”. I focus on things that can be dissected with a combination of meaningful data and common sense. So until intangibles become tangible, they are off limits.
But I find it interesting that in touting Farmar’s heart, the supporting material is stuff that can be measured by stats. And sure, he had a terrific game against OSU. If that was the norm for Farmar, I’d be on the bandwagon. In an off-night for Afflalo (4-14 on FGs, 0-5 on threes), which admittedly has been a regular occurrence recently, Farmar came through. But let’s keep in mind, in the previous four games he produced a 44.5% eFG and had 23 turnovers. Mind you, with 32 assists.
In addition to the high turnover rate he brings, my other problem with Farmar is this:
FGA/40 Min eFG% Farmar 14.0 47.6 Afflalo 13.8 57.2
Farmar’s not a great shooter, and yet he takes the most shots on the team. If he could get others involved more often, especially Afflalo, who is the better scorer, UCLA could squeeze a little bit more out of the offense.
So to summarize: Farmar is a solid point guard. But just limiting the discussion to sophomores or freshman, I wouldn’t put him on the same level as Darius Washington or Rajon Rondo. I’d put Marcus Williams and Taurean Green ahead of Farmar also, and Devan Downey and Sean Singletary have to be in the discussion if we’re considering defense.
While Farmar’s heart may be bigger that those guys, his production is not.
Friday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Kiril Wachsmann 34 7-12 0-0 1-2 7-13 2 2 2 3 1 15
Result: Win. Iona 71, Niagara 69. (OT)
Saturday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
J.J. Redick 34 11-13 8-10 10-11 1-4 1 1 2 4 0 40
Result: Win. Duke 82, Virginia 63.
Sunday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Bobby Jones 34 1-11 0-4 2-2 4-6 3 4 3 1 0 4
Result: Loss. Stanford 76, Washington 67. (OT)