Friday, March 31, 2006

Final Four Breakdown: UCLA/LSU

When UCLA has the ball (national rank listed):

       UCLA O   LSU D
AdjEff   23       4
eFG      22      32
TO%     223     184
OR%      50      30
FTs      94       4

This game is being featured as a defensive showdown, but it deserves pointing out that the offenses aren’t too shabby. You don’t get this far without being able to do a few things right offensively. Remember that on paper, GMU/UConn should have been a game in the 60s or low 70s and it became a shootout.

UCLA’s 50-45 win over Memphis got panned due to the freakishly low score. But UCLA went 20-of-39 from the line. With ten more made free throws - not an unrealistic assumption - UCLA’s offensive efficiency works out to about 91. While that doesn’t wow you, it’s a lot better that than the 76 they really had, and it’s against a team whose defense is its calling card. I’m not saying I expect UCLA to run wild on LSU, but if people are basing UCLA’s offensive potential based on 50 points against Memphis, they have been misled.

When LSU has the ball:

       LSU O   UCLA D
AdjEff   40       3
eFG     115      42
TO%     195      92
OR%      16      48
FTs     130      65

UCLA’s defense is solid all the way around, while LSU’s offense tends to rely on rebounding. Arron Afflalo is regarded as the Bruins’ defensive stopper. His natural matchup would seem to be Garrett Temple. The only problem is, offensively, Temple is by far the least active starter in the Final Four. So I’m curious as to how Afflalo will be deployed. His other options are one of the Mitchells, each of which provides quite a different set of challenges. The best option may be to have Afflalo check Temple and also be the guy most eager to double the post.

Yes, we can probably rule out a high scoring game in this one. Only 3 of UCLA’s past 14 opponents have topped 1 PPP. None of LSU’s tourney opponents have cracked 90 in offensive efficiency. If either team gets to 70, it should win going away.

Thursday, March 30, 2006

Final Four Breakdown: GMU/Florida

When the Gators have the ball (national rank listed):

       Fla O  GMU D
AdjEff   6     15
eFG      3      7
TO%    144    220
OR%     91     68
FTs     19     15

Florida has a unique combination of a high ranking in both shooting stats (eFG% and FTRate), with Duke as the only other team in the top 20 of both. But GMU brings an equally lofty status on the defensive side, with UConn and Iowa as the only others possessing top 20 defenses in the shooting categories.

While previous Mason opponents had a clearly identifiable offensive weakness on the individual level, Florida really doesn’t. Yes, Lee Humphrey and Taurean Green are much more dangerous behind the arc than inside it. But that doesn’t matter when you have Florida’s frontline. Al Horford and Joakim Noah both shoot 60+%, but Horford gets his points further from the hoop on average.

Florida turns the ball over a bit much, but maybe it’s not so surprising considering they like to play at a faster than average pace.

When the Patriots have the ball:

       GMU O  Fla D
AdjEff  53      8
eFG     21     18
TO%     77     83
OR%    233    104
FTs    223     45

Mason’s offense is the weakest unit of anyone in the Final Four. They get a lot of value out of each field goal attempt, and they better, because they don’t get many second chances or whistles. They’ve shot 51.0% from 2/41.9% from 3 during the tourney against teams currently ranked 3rd, 44th, 51st, and 55th in eFG defense.

Florida’s defense, like their offense, is well-rounded. Their team rebounding isn’t all that great considering they have two very good individual rebounders.

GMU spreads out its offense among its starters very well, but they have less depth than anyone left. They are not going to get much offense from anyone coming off the bench.

Florida prefers to play a pace of 68.7. George Mason prefers 64.5. We’d expect 66 possessions in this game. The Patriots average pace in the tournament is 64. It is extremely important that they keep the pace down in this one. Florida is patient in the halfcourt, but does like to run when possible. If this thing ends up with around 60 possessions, then GMU doesn’t have to worry as much about foul trouble. But additionally, Florida fares worse in slow games.

Pace Opponent  Result
 56  G'town   W, 57-53
 57  S. Car.  W, 49-47

Those two games are the only times Florida has played in a game under 60 possessions, and each time the game came down to the last possession. Probably because their transition opportunities were limited.

George Mason has specialized in containing transition. They’re going to need to continue that against Florida. The closer the pace gets to 70, the more likely the Gators advance.

Tuesday, March 28, 2006

All I Have Today…

Is the week in lines:

Tuesday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
Renaldo Balkman        42  4-9   0-1  0-1  6-13  3 4 5  1  1    8
Result: Win. South Carolina 69, Florida State 68. (OT)

Ah, what the hell. I’ll give Renaldo my first ever Defender of the Year Award. Just to be different.

Wednesday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
Isaiah Hunter          33 10-19  4-9  5-7  0-6   3 0 0  1  0   29
Result: Win. Old Dominion 61, Hofstra 51. 

Thursday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
LaMarcus Aldridge      37 11-15  0-0  4-8  7-13  2 2 0  1  0   26
Result: Win. Texas 74, West Virginia 71.

Friday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
Craig Smith            45  6-11  0-0  2-6  4-14  7 4 2  7  2   14
Result: Loss. Villanova 60, Boston College 59. (OT)

Saturday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
Glen Davis             39 11-19  1-2  3-5  2-9   2 2 1  2  1   26
Result: Win. LSU 70, Texas 60. (OT)

Sunday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
Will Thomas            44  8-12  0-0  3-4  6-12  2 4 1  0  1   19
Result: Win. George Mason 86, Connecticut 84. (OT)