Blinded by the Points
09.30.05
Normally, a guy that scores a lot of points can be considered a productive offensive player. Normally, but not always.
I love Dean Oliver’s offensive rating as much as anyone, because it takes all aspects of a player’s statistical performance and states it in terms of efficiency, which we can easily relate to in terms of good and bad. If someone hands you a stats sheet, you can’t exactly compute offensive rating in your head (unless you’re Scott Flansburg). However, one can get a good idea about a scorer’s efficiency by looking at the readily available field goal percentage and the ability to get to the line. For example, compare these guys:
PPG FG-FGA(Pct.) 3FG-FGA(Pct.) FTA-FTM(Pct.) Smith, Steven…. 20.3 206-481(.428) 34-116(.293) 142-176(.807) Fazekas, Nick…. 20.7 223-444(.502) 33-101(.327) 183-232(.789)
La Salle’s Steven Smith and Nevada’s Nick Fazekas are two of the leading returning scorers in the nation, and both were among the 50 players on the preseason Wooden Award watch list. However, it doesn’t take a fancy formula to see that Fazekas was much more efficient in getting his points. He was a better shooter from the field, and while they were both excellent from the free throw line, Fazekas got there more often. Here’s how they compare in the more sophisticated metrics.
ORtg %Poss %Min Poss Pts. Smith, Steven…. 96 32.0 97.2 582 567 Fazekas, Nick…. 115 28.7 78.5 490 566
The difference in shooting percentage is captured in each player’s offensive rating. One other important difference between the two is in playing time. Smith led the nation in percentage of minutes played, and thus had many more opportunities to get his points. The final two columns represent the total possessions used by each player and the points each produced. Similar to calculating a team’s offensive efficiency, divide a player’s points produced by possessions and multiply by 100 to get each player’s offensive rating. Smith and Fazekas both produced the same amount of points, but Smith did so in 92 more possessions, thus reducing his efficiency.
Before labeling a scorer “great” merely based on the volume of points scored, look at his shooting accuracy and how often he gets to the line. There’s no doubt Smith had less help around him than Fazekas did - La Salle’s off-season rape scandal in 2004 removed what little depth the Explorers had last season. So to use these figures to say Fazekas is a better player than Smith requires a few assumptions. But to say someone who scores 20 a game in near-major conference must be a productive offensive player requires a unique set of assumptions in itself.
A Systematic Breakdown
09.25.05
Fans of the Big Blue must be restless. There aren’t enough good reasons to begin actively calling for Tubby Smith’s head. But there also aren’t enough signs to enthusiastically support him. Such is the state of a basketball program that has hung around the top ten for the last two years but at the same time hasn’t been a real threat to claim the national championship that its fans demand. The situation is uncomfortable enough that off-season rumors of Tubby going to Virginia, a team that finished dead last in the ACC, were widely considered credible.
The Wildcats face an uncertain future in 2005-06. Kelenna Azubuike turned pro and found an uncertain future himself. Randolph Morris followed the Azubuike career plan, but has decided to try to return to college after going undrafted like Azubuike. Then there’s reserve forward Joe Crawford who tried to leave in the middle of last season, but was convinced to stay. The one guy who seemed to relish his time in Lexington, Chuck Hayes, graduated. And the incoming recruiting class hasn’t received glowing reviews.
So is UK headed for a breakdown this season? To answer that question, we need a breakdown ourselves.
To know where Kentucky is going, we have to know where they came from. Fortunately, they are an easy team to peg.
2005 Rankings Adj. Pythag Rank 9 Pomeroy Rank 11 Sagarin Rank 9 AP Pre-tourney 7
It’s safe to assume Kentucky was on the bottom end of the top 10 in 2005. Next I want to know what their strengths were. Here is how they ranked in the basic categories last season.
Offense Defense Adj. Eff. 25 6 Shooting 52 47 Turnovers 45 13 Rebounding 79 174 FT Rate 168 76
These categories are based on the four factors concept with rankings here, and definitions of each category here.
Kentucky was a defense-dominated team. Sure, they were solid offensively, but they didn’t have the kind of firepower that can win a national title. Defensively, they succeeded by forcing turnovers. Anyone that has seen Rajon Rondo operate knows that he could be considered the most disruptive guard in the nation without much argument. So it’s nice to see the data agree with that observation. The frontline of Azubuike/Hayes/Morris (especially Hayes) was also formidable defensively. But it was Rondo that pushed this defense from good to great.
So let’s look at the player stats for last season and speculate on how Coach Smith will fill the holes left by the departing players. Here are the vitals for Kentucky’s players last season, with players in parentheses not returning for ‘06…
ORtg %Poss %Shots %Min TO% OR% DR% FTRate eFG% (Azubuike)..115 23.4 26.8 72.1 14.3 6.9 12.1 31.5 55.1 Sparks…...111 20.9 23.7 69.1 18.5 1.2 7.7 18.0 52.7 (Hayes).....113 21.1 20.2 72.4 17.9 12.2 19.0 39.2 51.2 Morris…...111 22.3 21.0 48.9 13.5 9.1 15.8 71.9 52.8 Rondo…....104 20.0 16.6 62.1 24.0 2.8 10.6 51.5 53.5 Bench Bradley….. 97 24.0 22.7 30.4 24.9 4.8 12.1 32.8 46.3 Alleyne…..124 13.3 12.2 19.5 16.6 6.6 17.6 65.2 65.2 Moss….....116 16.6 15.0 28.5 21.0 7.5 12.0 49.4 59.0 Crawford…. 91 17.9 19.8 25.2 19.1 7.1 11.9 26.8 42.8 Perry….... 97 17.2 20.1 28.2 15.1 9.7 11.6 22.7 42.7 Thomas…... 83 13.9 10.1 13.7 33.9 5.6 15.6 55.6 59.3 Obrzut…...100 10.9 8.3 13.0 30.5 2.0 9.9 61.9 57.1 (Carrier)... 79 12.0 13.1 11.8 27.4 2.9 5.8 6.7 41.7
You often heard about Kentucky’s depth, but it wasn’t quality depth by a longshot. No one off the bench showed the ability to pick up a sizable chunk of the offensive load. Only guard Ramel Bradley can’t be considered an offensive role player, but he turned the ball over too often and shot poorly. No one expects Hayes and Azubuike to be completely replaced, but there isn’t a candidate to impersonate those guys for long periods of time. It may be up to this guy to fill most of Hayes’ minutes…
ORtg %Poss %Shots %Min PPG TO% OR% DR% FTRate eFG% Rekalin Sims 108 31.6 35.8 69.6 19.4 14.4 9.7 27.3 38.9 44.2
Those are Sims’ numbers as a 6-9 forward for Salt Lake Community College last season. And Kentucky fans better hope that there’s not much value in them, because his shooting is horrid for a prospective power forward. Even if we ignore the sub-30% three-point shooting, Sims was a mere 44% on two-pointers. Maybe it’s not a concern since he took so many shots - 545, exceeded by only three players in D1 - that you can’t possibly translate his shooting ability to being a role player at UK. But when I see that fellow juco all-American Chaz Spicer shot over 60% on twos as a power forward, I have to think there will be a serious adjustment period for Sims to play the type of game that Hayes played.
Regarding a replacement for Azubuike, well, there just isn’t one. Not that it’s ever easy to replace the best offensive player on a good offensive team, but there are no viable options that can approach Azubuike’s production. It will be mainly a combination of Crawford and Perry, and perhaps one of them will have a breakthrough, but it’s reasonable to expect a significant drop at this position.
What about at the 5? Randolph Morris may miss half the season serving NCAA punishment for unceremoniously declaring for the draft, loosely associating with an agent, attending workouts on the NBA’s dime, and then going undrafted. It’s easy to see why Tubby Smith allowed Morris back into the fold despite being treated poorly when Morris departed. All Tubby has is a group of 7-foot projects to fill in for Morris. The key to UK offense this season may be Shagari Alleyne. Alleyne was solid, if awkward at times, in limited minutes in ‘05. Offensively, Alleyne did little more than dunk when the opportunity arose, and there aren’t any kids imitating his offensive moves on Kentucky playgrounds. He’d be expected to assert himself more with the lack of scoring options this season. If Alleyne succeeds in his November/December trial run, then Morris can move to the 4 and suddenly things don’t look so bad. Things will look bad if Lukasz Obrzut sees more than 10 minutes a game this season. Obrzut is a non-factor offensively and defensively. He played 179 minutes with a grand total of two blocks and three offensive rebounds. Did I mention he’s seven feet tall? Freshman Jared Carter should end up as the backup seven-footer.
The situation in the backcourt doesn’t change from last season, with Rondo and Patrick Sparks getting spelled by Ravi Moss and Ramel Bradley. The one thing that does change is that this group will be counted on more to provide offense. Rondo was in a great place last season, able to be a distributor for the most part. He will be forced into a bigger role on the offensive end in 2006. Can he become Chris Paul? Maybe not, but his ability to get to the hoop and to the line bode well for him to carry more of the offensive load. Sparks is dangerously close to entering Gerry McNamara-land in terms of praise-to-production ratio. He’s a good, but not great, three-point shooter. Big performances against the in-state rival and in the regional finals pushed his reputation ahead of his ability.
To summarize, Kentucky’s defense will be great. With Rondo, they’ll still force a ton of turnovers, and increased playing time of the shot-blocker Alleyne may lower the opponents’ shooting percentage further. The only way that the offense will improve is if Rondo and Alleyne eat up a much larger chunk of possessions while remaining efficient. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rondo did that, but Alleyne is another matter. As a team, Kentucky may maintain a decent shooting percentage, but rebounding and turnovers will suffer with the new players in the lineup. Even when Morris comes back, look forward to a lot of games in the 60s, and a few more in the 50s than you are used to seeing from the Wildcats.
Each year since the probation season of 1991, Kentucky has entered the NCAA tournament no worse than a five-seed. The presence of Rondo and Morris alone give them a good chance of keeping that streak going, but it may not look pretty.
Landlord’s Revenge
09.22.05
Back when I was taking correspondence courses from the Skip Bayless School of Journalism, I equated Shelden Williams with Emeka Okafor. Honestly, I don’t think I’ve received more feedback about something I’ve posted here. I can see why Bayless is so successful at his racket of providing weak evidence for absurd positions.
But I felt like I supported my absurd position well. Williams appeared to be just as effective as Okafor on both ends of the floor. Granted, Okafor ran the court better than Williams, but based on what could be measured, there wasn’t much difference between what each provided his respective team.
Much of the criticism from the piece on Williams centered on my choice of using stats from the easier half of Duke’s season and comparing them with an enitre UConn season. Among a recent spate of quality posts, Ryan made a similar comparison based on Williams’ full season stats, and as it turns out, Shelden improved just about all of his numbers after conference play began.
Skip also taught me the fine art of patting one’s self on the back.