Saturday, March 19, 2005

Boeheimian Rhapsody

So the madness got put pack in March tonight. A fun night unless you had a rematch of the 2003 final in your Final Four.

It just so happened that the Vermont/Syracuse contest was the first game that I tried to take notes on using the Oliver possession scoring method. I really struggled with it, but the end result was a fairly detailed play-by-play on what happened. The game was a defensive slugfest until Syracuse's Terrence Roberts was hit with an absolutely atrocious technical for hanging on the rim with 8:58 left. Honestly, there will be about 50 dunks in the tournament where a guy is on the rim longer than Roberts.

After the two free throws, Vermont was up 36-31. At his point, Jim Boeheim decided to throw on a full-court press after a made basket or backcourt dead ball. Here were the results of the five Vermont possessions when that happened, assuming my records are accurate:

1P) Shot clock violation after an airball.

2P) Backcourt turnover.

3P) Timeout used when they couldn't inbound the ball, then committed a backcourt turnover.

4P) Sorrentine missed three.

5P) Backcourt turnover.

That's five possessions, no points, four turnovers, three times failing to advance the ball past mid-court. With 3:47 left, Syracuse tied it at 45 and Boeheim took off the press on the ensuing Vermont's possession. Result:

1NP) Coppenrath made lay-up.

After two Warrick made free throws, the press was employed. Result:

6P) Hehn missed shot.

Then after a Warrick dunk, the press was taken off again...

2NP) Mopa Njila made shot.

Syracuse went back down and tied it again at 51. Again no press followed. Result:

3NP) Coppenrath made shot.

For those keeping score: Press = six possessions, zero points. No press = three possessions, six points.

Syracuse pressed on Vermont's final possession of regulation, and the result was a Vermont turnover, although it occurred when Mopa Njila stepped on the baseline just before making a lay-up.

Syracuse showed the press once in overtime. It resulted in another UVM timeout, and ultimately a Sorrentine miss.

After the game, Boeheim, who has always been a total class act in defeat, said he took the press off because he was concerned about fatigue. It's totally Monday morning quarterbacking on my part, but it's strange that fatigue enters the equation to quit on a successful strategy with a minute to go in regulation.

Other observations:

- I watched the post-game press conference and when Boeheim faced a question about his team's 24 turnovers (10 by Warrick!), he expressed that he was surprised that they were so careless with the ball. Naturally, whenever you turn the ball over on more than a third of your possessions, that's exceptionally bad. But to illustrate his point he referred to his team's low turnover totals in two games against Connecticut.

As readers of this blog know, UConn is among the nation's worst teams at forcing turnovers. Their defense is solely in the business of blocking shots, to the extent that UConn rejects one out of every seven of their opponent's shots. It was news to me when I discovered that UConn eschews the turnover back in December, but I am surprised that it is news to the Big East. This year UConn was the 4th worst of 330 D1 teams in forcing turnovers, last season they were 5th worst out of 326. So taking care of the ball against them is not a sign your team is particularly careful with the rock. (For reference: Central Florida committed only nine turnovers against the Huskies on Friday.)

- Gerry McNamara went 4 of 18 from the field. I wonder what it will take for him to shake his reputation as a deadly marksman. McNamara led the nation in three point attempts this season, but only one other player in the top 25 in attempts was less accurate than McNamara. Now I know that McNamara is the only long-ball threat on the team and so defenses focus on him, the result being he doesn't get many open looks. But nonetheless, his 4-for-18 games are more common than the 12-for-18 games that make legends.

On a totally unrelated note, I have to pass on this fascinating bracket in the ESPN contest, thanks to a post on a Virginia Tech message board. The guy had a perfect first round going into the final set of games on Friday night - 28 for 28. And he got three out of the four late-night games correct. A great start, right? He finished the first round with 31 of 32 games correct. The one he missed was Kansas...whom he had winning the championship. This guy went from being the luckiest bracketeer in the nation, to having lightning strike him.

Friday, March 18, 2005

Let’s Get Technical

For the second consecutive year, the basketball committee showed that it puts more emphasis on conference tournaments that any other games during the season. It also puts the ACC tourney above any others. Last season, Maryland earned a four seed based on three ACC tournament games. This season, Georgia Tech earned a five seed based on three games in the ACC tournament.

Georgia Tech elevated its play at the MCI Center. Georgia Tech also happened to be without an injured Isma'il Muhammad for those three games. Coincidence?

               Off.
Player         Rtg. %Poss %Shots %Min  PPG   TO% FTA/M FTA/FGA OR%
Jack, J........113  22.2   20.2  84.7 15.5  26.3 .132   .447   1.0
Elder, BJ......103  24.0   31.0  45.4 13.0  15.1 .073   .161   4.7
Bynum, W.......104  24.2   25.3  67.0 12.5  20.0 .154   .417   2.5
Schenscher, L..108  20.4   20.3  65.0 10.2  20.6 .108   .365  11.5
Muhammad, I.... 94  23.2   20.5  54.5  9.0  23.4 .162   .540   9.3
Morrow, A......112  19.4   26.1  30.3  5.5  12.8 .046   .121   6.7
Dickey, R......106  23.0   19.7  23.8  5.1  25.0 .205   .711  12.0
McHenry, A..... 96  11.1   10.2  59.1  3.8  25.9 .038   .252   3.4
Smith, J.......107  13.1   10.8  16.8  3.1  19.3 .089   .563  11.5
West, M........108  13.5   12.2  22.8  2.0  13.8 .112   .633  10.9

I've defined most of these stats before, but there are some new ones. They're simple, I promise.

First, a couple to measure the player's ability to get to the line.
FTA/M = free throw attempts per minute played.
FTA/FGA = free throw attempts per field goal attempt.

Then this one to measure offensive rebounding ability.
OR% = percentage of the team's missed shots that are rebounded by that player. Playing time is factored in so that this only accounts for shots taken while the player is in the game.

Muhammad ranks as Tech's weakest player offensively while using more than his fair share of possessions. The drain on Muhammad's rating is his 47% free throw shooting, and the fact that he gets to the line a fair amount. Normally getting to the line is a good thing, but not when you can't make half of your free throws.

In the interest of full disclosure, Tech's improvement on offense at the ACC tourney in some respect was due to great offensive rebounding, which is Muhammad's strength. So it's not fair to give all the credit for improved play to Muhammad's absence, especially when you consider that many of his vacated minutes were used by one of the three guards. But if you picked Georgia Tech to go deep in the tourney because you are expecting Muhammad's return to make them even better than they were in the ACC tourney, prepare yourself for disappointment.

Other observations on Georgia Tech...

1) Why isn't Ra'sean Dickey getting more time? The freshman forward is efficient offensively and a beast on the offensive boards. Look for him to become more familiar to ACC fans next season.

2) I don't have a lot of experience with offensive rebound percentage, but a Jarrett Jack offensive rebound is more rare that a JR Giddens free throw. Only one out of 100 Georgia Tech missed shots end up in Jack's hands. Obviously a point guard isn't going to crash the boards, but without any offensive rebounds to speak of, Jack is third leading rebounder on the team.

3) I like to look at turnover percentage to get an idea how the guards are used. In this case Jack is clearly the point with his high TO%, and Elder is purely a shooter with his low TO%. I know you probably already knew that, but it's nice to see the numbers back it up. Despite the TO% disparity, Jack's offensive rating is much higher than Elder's. From what I have seen, this is rare. Almost always the shooting guard has a better offensive rating than the point. It tells me that while Tech was unspectacular when Elder was injured, if it had been Jack that went down, we wouldn't be talking about the Yellow Jackets as a NCAA team right now.

Finally, I would be remiss if I didn't mention that Ike Diogu's season ended tonight in a first round NIT loss to UNLV. He scored 29 points including 8 for 11 on free throws. His made free throws gave him 248 for the season, breaking the Pac-10 record of 243 that he set last season. Fittingly, his season ended at 2:02 AM EST, once again depriving eastern fans a chance to witness that marvel that is Diogu.

Thursday, March 17, 2005

Game Diary: Utah State/Arizona

I'm going to keep tabs on this game in almost real-time. Hopefully this one will break the game diary trend and be competitive into the second half. But by doing a 3/14 game, obviously I am taking my chances.

14:01 - Arizona 10, USU 7 - Turnovers are the story so far with USU point guard David Pak giving it away on three consecutive possessions before getting lifted in favor of backup Chris Huber. Salim Stoudamire and Jaycee Carroll have each connected on one three in two attempts in the matchup of two of the best long-range shooters in the country.

11:31 - USU 12, Arizona 10 - Stoudamire has forced a couple of shots. While USU stays hunkered down in a zone, they do make sure to keep pressure on the ball, regardless of how far Salim drifts away from the arc. Nate Harris, #2 nationally in FG%, has carried USU so far, with six points on four attempts. All-everything Spencer Nelson has looked jittery and spent a about three minutes on the bench so far.

6:43 - Arizona 20, USU 17 - 22 possessions so far, so we're on pace for about 67 in the game - the average college game has about 69. Shortly before the time out, Tim Brando remarks that the pace is "frenetic." USU coach Stew Morrill puts Pak back in the game, and he has taken good care of the ball since his return. After the commercial break, Brando again talks about the "frenetic" pace.

3:13 - Arizona 24, USU 24 - USU's last possession eats up about a minute as they rebound consecutive three pointers, and then Pak makes a bomb to tie the game. Still awaiting the first points for Nelson, who badly missed a layup during the last stretch.

0:40 - USU 29, Arizona 26 - Glancing at the other scores, it looks like we will have a 15 seed and two 14s all with half-time leads. Maybe the madness is beginning.

Halftime - USU 29, Arizona 26 - The half ends with a total of 30 possessions, hardly a frenetic pace, and slightly tilted towards the defense. Spencer Nelson has spent a lot of time on the bench, with zero points, two rebounds and no assists. Not the scenario one would envision the Aggies holding a halftime lead. Neither sharpshooter, Carroll or Stoudamire, has been effective. Stoudamire is 1 of 5 on threes, and was stripped by Huber before he could launch one on the last possession of the half. 

If USU can keep the 2nd half around 30 possessions, I really like their chances.

2nd Half

14:55 - Arizona 36, USU 31 - A 10-2 run coming out of the half for Arizona. The message from Lute was to attack the basket, and Channing Frye has seven of those points after scoring only four in the first half.

11:50 - Arizona 42, USU 34 - This is the second game I have seen today where CBS has related a team's offensive drought in terms of possesions, which is encouraging. In this case it was the fact that USU scored only 2 points on its first 11 possessions of the half. A Carroll trey on the 12th possession ends a 14-2 Wildcat run. USU has committed seven fouls in the half, compared to four in the first half, and this is a product of Arizona's renewed focus on scoring in the paint.

6:52 - Arizona 52, USU 43 - With Shakur on the bench, the Aggies break their drought with an eight point burst in 3 possessions, but the fine tradition of the game diary is continuing with Arizona separating. Nelson has four fouls and two points, and has never been able to get involved in the offense.

2:22 - Arizona 60, USU 46 - The defensive domination by Arizona continues, with a Carroll three the only Aggie points in the last 4:40. Utah State is 6 of 24 from the field in the 2nd half.

Final - Arizona 66, Utah State 53 - Great defensive effort by Arizona in the second half, which was still played at USU's pace (31 possessions), but the result was lopsided in Arizona's favor (40-24). With Spencer Nelson a no-show offensively, the Aggies had only one weapon, Jaycee Carroll, and that's not enough against a well-rounded team like the Wildcats.