Monday, March 28, 2005

What If…

There was no better illustration of how random chance can affect a game than on Patrick Sparks' successful three-pointer to send the Kentucky/Michigan State game to overtime. There were three main variables that could have flipped the other way from what actually occurred.

1) What if Patrick Sparks' foot is a micron closer to the basket, and so it's only a two- point attempt?

2) What if Kelvin Torbert (or "Torbit" as Jim Nantz says) is called for a foul on Sparks?

3) What if Sparks' shot falls off the rim instead of through?

Then consider each of the eight possible combinations to the yes/no answers of the above questions. Only one of those - Sparks makes a three, foul is called - potentially results in a UK win. Nonetheless, these are the things that will keep me up at night if the Spartans win two more games.

And that is not a far-fetched notion. If MSU only commits 13 turnovers against UNC, as they did against Kentucky, they are going to score a lot of points.

Sunday, March 27, 2005

Speechless (Almost)

One day, two overtime games. The first time it's happened in the elite eight in the history of the tournament.

West Virginia/Louisville: If you can't win in regulation by hitting 18 of 24 three pointers, then you just can't win. The 18 makes were a WVU record, and the second most in a tournament game. It was a performance that would have rivaled Villanova's in the '85 championship game had it resulted in a win. After three misses in OT, WVU finished 18 for 27 on threes. Here are the games (between D1 teams only) this season where a team made at least 15 three-pointers and made at least 60% of their attempts:

 2/19 Creighton (20-30, 66.7%) vs. Chattanooga
 3/26 West Virginia (18-27, 66.7%) vs. Louisville
 3/12 Louisville (15-23, 65.2%) vs. Memphis
 1/17 Georgia Southern (22-34, 64.7%) vs. Chattanooga
12/20 Cornell (15-24, 62.5%) vs. Syracuse
11/19 Texas Tech (16-26 61.5%) vs. UNC Asheville

We're talking a total of 4,752 games, and in terms of volume and accuracy, the Mountaineers output was one of the best. How snake bitten was Chattanooga? I don't care how bad your perimeter defense is, to witness what were arguably the two best three-point shooting games is some serious bad luck.

On the coaching side, Pitino mixed up the usual 2-3 zone with some man in the first half, but played the majority of possessions with zone. The man was slightly more effective. There was a six possession stretch of zone early where WVU scored 15 points, and in the process increased its lead from 6-3 to 21-7. An amazing run of 14 for 16 threes began during this time and lasted into the middle of the second half. Anyway, Pitino went exclusively man in the second half, which resulted in a faster pace and a little less offense for WVU. But overall it was a game where the offenses dominated.

Arizona/Illinois: This isn't one of those games that is explained with numbers. Illinois, down 15 with roughly four minutes to go, played like the best team in the nation at its most desperate. Anyone that doubted Illinois' claim to being the best team in the nation cannot do so anymore. It is looking more and more like the final will be the rarest of the rare: a game between the two best teams in the country.

The coaching critique in this one falls on the final play of the game. Arizona, after a timeout, ran a play for Hassan Adams. Adams got the deer-in-the-headlights look when he unexpectedly drew Deron Williams defensively, and never made what could be considered an offensive move, before heaving the ball towards the hoop just before the buzzer. Lute Olson, who fortunately has a 1997 national championship to ward off claims of being a serial choker, would have liked to draw up something to avoid Williams. However, WIlliams had been responsible for Salim Stoudamire for most of the game.

-

The two Final Four teams have adjusted offensive efficiency ranks of 4 and 5, respectively. Their defensive ranks are 9 and 15. Today's games will pit two teams with better offenses (UNC, Michigan State) against two teams that rely more on defense (Wisconsin, Kentucky).

Saturday, March 26, 2005

The Value of a Missed Shot

It sounds kind of goofy, but there is some value in a missed shot. For instance, just compare it to a turnover. There is no offensive value in a turnover because the possession ends right there. But the same is not true for a missed shot, because there is a chance of the possession continuing by an offensive rebound.

Michigan State's missed shots were valuable last night. The Spartans are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and their 16 offensive rebounds were a big reason for their impressive offensive performance against Duke. Because Duke had 22 turnovers, much was made of the Spartans' defense, and rightfully so. But offensively, State scored 78 points in roughly 74 possessions for an offensive efficiency of 105. An impressive total against the nation's second stingiest defense on a points per possession basis.

-

Pertaining to the first of today's two games, Louisville is 19-0 when they make at least ten three-pointers. Kudos to the CBS research folks for that one. West Virginia has only allowed that many bombs on three occasions this season, and never in the last 19 games. But this is partly due to WVU's games being on the slow side. About 36% of their opponents three-point attempts have been successful, which ranks a dismal 251st among D1 teams.