Friday, February 18, 2005

Opponents’ Three Point Production

It's been hard to get motivated to update the stats page this morning.

First, there is the matter of Ike Diogu hitting his 200th free throw of the season in Arizona State's 75-73 win over Oregon State last night. Diogu squandered an opportunity to pad his total by missing seven of his 15 attempts.

Ike looks like he will come up short in his effort to topple the alleged modern-day record of 272 free throws established by Alonzo Mourning. With ASU on course for an NIT bid, he may get some bonus games to give 'Zo a scare. But he probably will set a new Pac 10 record, which he also set last season with 243. With NBA scouts still cool on his pro potential, maybe Diogu will be back next season to give it another try.

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The other big news was that the alma mater knocked off Duke. I've been resistant in talking about Virginia Tech even as they have surprised the ACC in game after game. Mainly because I'm a homer for the Hokies, and I try to be all about the objectivity around here. However, there are a few quirks about this team of interest to a wider audience.

1) With Thursday night's win, they created an astonishing college basketball food chain, based on games this season:

VMI > Virginia Tech > Duke > UNC

When you hear someone presenting an argument that A beat B and B beat C so A is better than C, please ask them if they also think VMI is better than UNC.

2) In 12 conference games, the Hokies have been outscored by 94 points, but sit at 6-6. Their Pythagorean winning percentage is .248, meaning with luck being equal, they should be 3-9 right now. Based on results from 2004 and 2003, it can be concluded that they have been one of the luckiest teams in the nation during conference play.

3) You can't take their string of close wins away from them, and so Tech is on the periphery of the bubble discussion. With an RPI rank of 111, they are required to win their next five games, so an at-large berth is unlikely. Tech gets a lot of flak for their loss to #311 VMI, and rightfully so. But Tech is largely anonymous, and no one seems to be aware of the mitigating circumstances surrounding that loss: Hokies center Coleman Collins did not play against VMI.

The same Coleman Collins who had 14 points, 18 boards, and 5 blocks last night.

An at-large team shouldn't lose to VMI for any reason, but do you think he might have made a difference? A one-point win would be overlooked a lot more easily than a one-point loss.

Further proof on how anonymous this team is: ESPN announcer Mike Patrick, in the waning moments of the Collins' terrific performance, referred to him as part-time N.C. State center Jordan Collins.

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The stat for today is opponents' three-point production. It is the percentage of points a team's opponents' score on three-pointers. See the results on the stats page. This figure relates closely to defensive assist percentage. Teams that allow few assists, also allow few points from three. Which would seem to mean that assists are more likely on three point shots than two pointers. Which would seem to mean that assists are less of a positive stat (at least in the team sense) than I previously thought. Assists are more of a stat to assess how a team plays rather than how well they play. Comments?

Thursday, February 17, 2005

The Year of the Mid Major

You're starting to hear it more and more. Oh, how those power conferences have really fallen. Finally, the little guy will get his revenge. The Chinese recently celebrated the Year of the Rooster and college hoops observers are starting to hail the Year of the Catamounts, Salukis, and Monarchs.

These statements have been driven in large part by the RPI - an RPI that changed its formula this season. Hey look, Vermont is in the top 20! Pacific is in the top 25! Hoo-rah! The RPI now favors teams from outside the power conferences, that should be obvious. But measuring teams by a new formula is akin to someone measuring themselves in pounds one day and kilograms the next and concluding that their diet is really working.

In a sense, it doesn't matter whether the power conferences are really worse this year, they are going to be less represented in the NCAA Tournament. But the top six conferences aren't suddenly having their worst season in recent memory. Sure the SEC is down. But the Big East is equally better. The ACC is a little worse, but the Pac 10 has rebounded slightly.

To fairly compare activity over the last two seasons, use a formula that has been the same over that time. You can use whatever system you want and you'll find out there really is no change. Naturally, I will pimp my own system for this exercise. All data is through Tuesday's games.

Top 50 Teams (Pomeroy Ratings)

        2005 2004 
ACC       6    7 
SEC       7    6 
Big XII   6    6 
Big Ten   6    4 
Big East  6    8 
Pac 10    3    2 
Total    34   33 

The non-conference records of the six conferences collectively (D1 opponents only):

2005: 593-187, .760
2004: 562-186, .751

Tuesday, February 15, 2005

No-Hitters

When you don't have anything to say, let the readers say it for you...

Ken,

Just saw your column commenting on Seth Davis saying Illinois "needed" a loss. Someone should ask Seth how teams with 1 loss have won since undefeated IU. Based on the teams I read about in the Final Four program in '97 and the fact that there have been none since then, I'd say not well. So I guess you need 2 losses.

Alan

This is so very true. Folks are obsessed with going unbeaten, but there hasn't been a one-loss champion since '76, either. There have been 17 teams to enter the dance with one loss from '77 to '04, and all of them came up short. Only three went so far as the Final Four, and only '99 Duke made it to the finals. So the evidence would seem to point against the utility of a late-season loss for the Illini.

Ken,

On Saturday the Dayton Flyers played the LaSalle Explorers and Dayton did not attempt a single foul shot.  Despite not attempting a free throw, Dayton won the game.  I can not remember a game where this has happened before and I remember you (I think) writing an article on how the importance of foul shots can be over emphasized.

So here are my questions.

How often does a game take place and one team does not attempt a single foul shot?

Thank you, I really enjoy your site.

Mike

College hoops version of the no-hitter doesn't happen very often. Over the past two seasons, there have been only four instances of a team not shooting any free throws (team with no free throws in bold).

12/04/03, Central Florida @ Florida, Result: Florida 58-38
 2/28/04, Michigan State @ Penn State, Result: MSU 67-42
11/26/04, Charleston Southern @ Notre Dame, Result: ND 54-38
 2/12/05, Dayton @ LaSalle, Result: Dayton 56-45

In what surely must be a coincidence, and not related to any type of shady referee compensation program, the road team is the one that didn't get to the line in all four cases.