Thursday, February 10, 2005

More on Assistststss

What you may have missed last night:

1) Miami Ohio and Kent State both won tight MAC road games, staying on a collision course for a March 2 showdown between the conference's two most deserving at-large teams. Miami's win was tainted by buzzer-beating controversy.

The headline on the above Miami link at the time of this posting:

RedHawks Pull Out Close 54-54 Win at Ball State

This article explains why the game should have gone to overtime.

[Update: the Muncie Star Press has produced a brief documentary video of the final moments.]

2) There was a rare late-season showdown to settle the debate between the nation's biggest underachievers. Missouri won, er...lost, 74-71 to UNLV.

-

I got a few thoughtful responses on a contradiction posed last Friday regarding teams with efficient offenses that don't get many assists. Dear reader Matt broke out some numbers...

Ken,

Your post about assist percentage and its correlation to efficient offense was interesting. A possible explanation for the fact that Duke and Villanova have efficient offenses but low assist percentage could be that they have 3 players that score an overwhelming proportion of their offense. Consider:

Duke

Reddick, Williams and Ewing account for 66.2% of their scoring.

Villanova

Ray, Sumpter and Foye account for a very similar 66% of their scoring.

By contrast very efficient offenses like Wake Forest and Illinois have much lower proportions for their top 3 scorers.

Wake Forest 56.2%

Illinois 52.4%

UNC which has been repeatedly lauded for their unselfish, share-the-ball attitude has a very low 50.5%.

It would seem reasonable that if a smaller number of players were responsible for a team's scoring there would be fewer opportunities for assists during the normal course of a game.

Great website!

Matt

It can't be disputed that an efficient offense without a lot of assists means that the team has players that are able to score on their own. I think this tidbit that Matt uncovered is a function of that. 'Nova is the poster child for this kind of team, with three players that can regularly create their own shot.

The third team that fell into the high efficiency/low assists bin was Texas. They never had the dominating trio to which Matt refers. But it's not a coincidence that the Longhorns offense has been noticeably weaker after losing one of their scorers, PJ Tucker. By contrast, both Villanova and Duke have withstood prolonged absences from starters without any impact. This is probably because their trio of scorers has remained healthy and their scoring ability isn't as dependent on getting help from teammates.

Wednesday, February 09, 2005

Texas Toast

I posted 32 tournament locks on Monday, and by Tuesday night, I no longer had confidence in one of them. Injury-riddled Texas is reeling after getting routed in Boulder, despite a 27 and 21 performance from Brad Buckman.

The character of the team has changed since the nearly simultaneous loss of starters PJ Tucker and LaMarcus Aldridge for the season. These were the two best interior scorers for the Longhorns, and as you might expect, Texas has become more of a jumpshooting team in their absence.

Here's a chronological breakdown of the Longhorns' shooting percentage, and percentage of shots coming from three for games this season. I've weeded out the patsies on the non-conference schedule.

FG%   3PA/FGA   Result 
45.9   34.4     vs Iowa, L 82-80 
52.4   39.7     vs Tennessee, W 95-70 
39.3   30.4     at Seton Hall, W 70-62 
48.5   35.3     at Wake Forest, L 89-88 
51.8   33.9     vs UNLV, W 89-82 
44.0   36.0     vs Memphis, W 74-67 
54.7   47.2     vs Baylor, W 79-60 
32.3   33.9     at Texas A&M, L 74-63 
40.8   36.7     at Nebraska, W 63-53 
        Aldridge Gone 
42.3   28.8     vs Oklahoma St., W 75-61 
         Tucker Gone
42.9   24.5     at Oklahoma, L 64-60 
50.0   38.9     vs Texas Tech, W 80-73 
37.3   39.0     at Kansas, L 90-65 
40.5   40.5     vs Iowa State, L 92-80 
41.3   46.0     at Colorado, L 88-79 

The most noticeable trend is with the perimeter shooting: the last four games have ranked among Texas' six highest three point attempt games (by percentage) this season. Similarly, three of Texas' six worst shooting games have occurred since the loss of Tucker.

Suddenly, the Horns have gone from a team thinking Final Four wasn't out of the question, to a team that is going to have to work hard for an at-large bid.

Tuesday, February 08, 2005

Two Utes

Ken,

Utah has won their last 14 games by DD's (10+). Is this some kind of record? What is the record for consecutive games winning by DD's? It's gotta be approaching. If they get UNLV by 10 tonight, they should get to at least 16 with CSU at home next.

Ryan

I have to confess, once Rick Majerus and the Utes parted ways, I never thought I would see the words "Utah" and "double-Ds" in the same sentence. But Ryan came through. This question lost its relevance since Utah blew a late 13-point lead to UNLV last night, and won by only four. However, in a brief internet search, I did manage to find a 23-game double-digit streak pulled off by the '74-'75 Indiana team.

The more perplexing question now is: what to make of these Utes? They're like the Cincinnati of the West. Only there's no Louisville-type team in the Mountain West Conference to keep Utah honest.

Most everybody is in love with center Andrew Bogut, but none more than Bogut himself. What's not to like about a guy averaging 20 and 12, making 66% of his shots? They have one of the best perimeter shooters in the nation in Marc Jackson, who converts 52% of this threes. These two guys contribute to Utah being second in the nation in field goal percentage.

(Which reminds me, what was USC thinking trying to hire Majerus to replace Henry Bibby? Majerus was legendary for having problems with his players, which was the biggest complaint against Bibby. Jackson quit the Utah team last season and blew a year of eligibility rather than play for Majerus.)

Thanks to a tempo that is 8th slowest in the nation, the Basketball Shrink says the Utes compare best to Georgetown, though the Hoyas are worse in the efficiency numbers. The sad fact is, we're not going to know much about Utah when it comes time to fill out brackets. But with a certified lottery pick, and inside/outside balance, they have a real chance to do the lackluster MWC proud in the tourney.