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    Shot Attempt Difference

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, January 27, 2005

    The stats page has been updated through Wednesday's action. The bonus stat is Shot Attempt Difference. It represents the number of additional shots a team gets per 100 possessions as compared to its opponent. It's essentially a measure of how much of an advantage a team has in the turnover and rebounding departments.

    A shot is defined by FGA + .42 x FTA, so possessions spent at the free throw line are also included.

    I haven't had the time to scrutinize the numbers, but the top of the SAD list has a diverse group of teams. Houston's big advantage in shot attempts comes entirely from the three point line, where they make less than a third of their shots. Hence, their offensive efficiency is very low. Arizona has fewer turnovers than the opposition and has a rebounding advantage, but not as much in either category as Kentucky. Air…


    Possession Stats 101

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, January 26, 2005

    If you ever hear the level of success of a team's offense or defense described in terms of points scored or allowed per game, you should ignore it. Among stats published by the NCAA, field goal percentage is much more valuable. But among stats not endorsed by the NCAA, points per possession is better still. A couple of things I saw yesterday used points per game in a misleading way to make a point.

    Example 1) Tuesday night at halftime of the Illinois/Wisconsin game, a stat was posted in defense of Doug Gottlieb's claim that Wisconsin was the most overrated team in the Big Ten. It compared the points per game they have given up this season (60.5) to last season (57.2). (If memory serves, the numbers used were during Big Ten play only, where the gap was larger than the overall numbers I am using.)

    To which the viewer…


    Rules Experiment Report: ‘05 Edition

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, January 25, 2005

    Today, I bring you an exciting presentation about rules. (For those of you looking for hype on the Illinois/Wisconsin game, you should know the drill by now. Big Ten Wonk will not only have coverage, but coverage of the coverage, along with a steady diet of acronyms, all wrapped in a college-level vocabulary.)

    The data is in, and in what should not be a surprise to anyone, the rules experiments for the exempt games of the 2005 season were once again a failure. The numbers for games through December 31st, which include all exempt games for this season, speak for themselves:

      Exempt Regular Games Games (169) (1438) Poss/40 min 69.1 69.5 Points/Poss .969 .986 Points/40 min 133.9 137.1 3P FG% 33.7 34.8 2P FG% 47.3 48.0 3PA/FGA (%) 31.7 32.8 Fouls/Poss .272 .266 

    As a review, the experimental rules for this season included an expanded lane,…


    Bracket Bustin’

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, January 23, 2005

    A week from now, we will know the matchups in the third annual Bracket Buster, where mid-majors pool their collective RPI chips to bargain for an extra bid or two into the big dance.

    The Bracket Buster takes place on Saturday, February 19th, with ESPN2 televising the best games in a marathon. Starting times are every two hours from noon until midnight eastern, with the exception of 10 pm. The midnight game is on ESPN. From my semi-handy Bracket Buster page (it would be nice to have the teams on that page sorted by RPI Rank, but my limited database skills lack the time to pull this off), here are the top rated teams heading into Monday's action, with record and RPI Rank in parenthesis:

    Home Away Pacific (14-2, 30) Southern Illinois (15-4, 14) Kent State (13-6, 35) Vermont (13-3, 17) Nevada (14-4, 37) Wichita State (13-2, 22) Rice… 


    Turnover Percentage

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, January 21, 2005

    As many of you noticed, there was a problem with the games database for most of the day yesterday. While I'd prefer the data I provide be absolutely correct, the snafu did allow me to realize the interesting cross section of people that check the site. I got e-mails from many fans, nearly-famous people, and a "Damn, I can't believe that guy has time to check the site. Let alone care about its accuracy." Thanks for keeping me in line. Surprisingly, there was not an f-bomb in the bunch. Give yourselves a round of applause.

    The Stat o' the Week is "Turnover Percentage." Once again it's a simple one...

    Turnovers / Possessions

    It's the percentage of offensive possessions that end in a turnover. I have this yet-to-be-confirmed theory that the offense owns the bulk of the responsibility in the turnover. To be overly simplistic, there are two ways a…


    The Inbox (Is ‘Inbox’ One Word?)

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, January 20, 2005

    Cleaning out the inbox this morning...


    I'm wondering if you've ever calculated these kinds of numbers for Grinnell College. They lead all NCAA hoops squads in scoring and must top all divisions in possessions.  Any numbers on them?


    Let's look at the two most notable college teams playing non-basketball.

     Grinnell: 102.4 poss/40 min, OE = 110.1, DE = 113.6 Redlands: 115.2 poss/40 min, OE = 122.7, DE = 112.2

    Both teams are off the chart on tempo considering the fastest D1 team is averaging around 80 possessions a game on the season. The offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are not unexpected given the two teams sacrifice defense to produce offense.

    On a related note, Andy Glockner of jumped into the efficiency fray yesterday and latched on to the fact that North Carolina's high tempo and efficiency makes them so scary. In…


    Move the Line Back

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, January 19, 2005

    Wake Forest missed but one free throw in 53 attempts over the past two games against North Carolina and Florida State. Yet that miss cost them a win. Taron Downey clanked one with 4 seconds left in regulation that would have broken a 76-76 tie against FSU. The miss ended an NCAA record streak of 50 consecutive free throws made by Wake Forest. It adds further evidence that we’re in an era where free throws are like layups. Really, they need to move back that line.

    (By the way, there’s been a discernible negative effect of playing UNC. Call it The Carolina Hangover. Each of UNC’s four ACC opponents have lost their next game. Overall, UNC opponents are 4-12 in their next contest.)


    Channel 56

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, January 18, 2005

    Back in the day, when ESPN was still showing Australian Rules Football on a regular basis and college basketball was not available every night, there was an over-the-air channel that was basically what the Full Court package is now. You could see quite a few games from all the big conferences. You know, the Southwest Conference, The Big Eight, the Metro. Remember them? Plus the SEC and WAC, among others. This thing was channel 56, and if you lived in northern Virginia in the mid '80s, you know what I'm talking about.

    The thing is, while 56 was basically today's Full Court - it mostly relied on the syndicated packages for each conference - it was only one channel unlike the multi-plexed Full Court system. This meant that a lot of games were broadcast by tape-delay. The concept wasn't all bad though. When Bob Knight threw the chair across the…


    Game Diary: Boston College/West Virginia

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, January 17, 2005

    13-0 Boston College tried to maintain its unbeaten record and 11-2 West Virginia was hoping to make people forget that they had just lost to Marshall. Through the miracle of streaming video, I was able to file this report as if I were attending the game, or even merely watching it on TV. Here are my uncensored musings...

    1st half

    15:50 BC 7, WVU 5 - West Virginia has a Princetonesque offense. There are a lot of back-cuts, it's very deliberate, they take the open three, and they get few offensive rebounds. The 1-3-1 zone they employ is forcing BC to take a lot of time to get a shot themselves.

    11:49 WVU 11, BC 9 - The first player to get in any kind of foul trouble is BC point guard Louis Hinnant, when he picks up his second foul. While WVU's offense is based on the perimeter,…


    Three Point Production

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, January 14, 2005

    Today's stat is "three point production." It is...

    (Three pointers made x 3) / Total Points Scored

    View the season-to-date figures for this stat for every D1 team on the stats page.

    Three point production is just the percentage of points scored on threes. A team's offense that relies too much on the three tends to be more inconsistent than others. I think that this is due to two reasons:

    1) Three point shooting accuracy in itself is less consistent than two point shooting accuracy and free throw production. Hot nights from the perimeter will be offset by cold nights.

    2) Balance is a good thing in basketball. One dimensional teams typically don't fare well because they are easier to defend.

    (Speaking of consistency, it's time for another installment of "Ike Diogu: Chasing History." Last night, Diogu had his worst outing of the season in an 86-82 loss to…


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