Friday, December 17, 2004

Box Score Bloopers

Kudos are in order to Big Ten Wonk and Hawkeye Hoops, who have both hinted at the potential of Ohio State, using statistical measurements of their play early this season. Last night the Buckeyes produced on the national stage, with a 77-71 win against Texas Tech in Dallas.

You shouldn't draw too many conclusions from one game, but based on their first nine games, it's apparent Thad Matta is getting results already. It's no longer a stretch to consider that the now 7-2 Buckeyes can win 20 games this season, even without any postseason action.

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Recently, there's been some discussion on quite a few the of my favorite hoops blogs about the use of various statistical measures in basketball. The fact that we're dealing with the college game as opposed to the NBA provides an additional layer of confusion in that we have to find a way to account for the level of competition. Yet another problem with the college game that can easily be overlooked is the quality of the data. This can't be taken for granted, especially for teams from the more obscure conferences.

For instance, take a look at this game between Lehigh and Columbia from December 6th. Notice that Lehigh guard Jose Olivero went an astounding oh-for-36 from three point range. You have to admire his persistence. You also have to admire that his coach is still giving him the green light not only after the tenth miss, but after the 20th, the 30th, and the 35th. Hey, you gotta shoot your way out of a slump.

How about this. Go check out the national free throw percentage leaders on CBS Sportsline. The leader is listed as Western Kentucky's Antonio Haynes. He's made all 41 of his attempts. But a closer look at Antonio's season turns up this game, a December 4th affair between the Hilltoppers and Murray State in which Haynes made eight free throws on only one attempt! Talk about efficient. For the game WKU made 18 out of 16, for 112.5%. Note to self: never again cringe when a coach says that his team must give 110%. Because it's possible.

Finally, among the national assists leaders is Morehead State's Ramon Kelly with 6.1 assists per game. That's not unusual. However, Kelly's performance against Maryland-Eastern Shore last Saturday really vaulted him up the list. In the giving spirit this holiday season, he dished out 33 assists! Jose Olivero might want to take a lesson from this guy.

None of these events really happened, but they did in the world of SportsTicker, the company that provides stats to all of the major websites. (Oddly, it's owned by ESPN which means the internet presence of CBS, Sports Illustrated, FOX, and USA Today are getting their info from the enemy.) Olivero really went 0 for 3 from long range, Haynes went 8 of 10 from the line, and Kelly only had three assists. However, on any major sports website, except the NCAA's, you'll see these wacky figures presented as fact.

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ESPN has a great doubleheader tomorrow with Kentucky/Louisville at noon Eastern, and Texas/Wake Forest at 2 pm. I'm looking forward to seeing how Wake fares against Texas. The Deacons are coming off of two questionable performances - a tight win against Temple followed by an ugly win against 2-6 Elon.

The Temple game is forgivable, as John Chaney's club has been respectable against their typically brutal schedule, and the Owls are notorious for making things interesting against more talented opponents. The Elon game set off the alarm bells. If Wake can't be competitive at home against Texas, the label 'disappointment' goes on their file. With UNC, Duke, and Georgia Tech staking out ground as the top three in the ACC, a loss to Texas may keep the Deacons out of the top ten for the remainder of the season.

Thursday, December 16, 2004

One Day at a Time

Day one of the post-Majerus era at ESPN did not go so well. Doug Gottlieb, whom I have praised in the past, botched a rule interpretation at the end of the DePaul/Northwestern game. He stated that the privilege of running the baseline on the throw-in after a made basket is lost after a second timeout. It sounds stupid and it was - Gottlieb was dead wrong. We all know Rick Majerus wouldn't have screwed that up. Anyway, I guess I must move on. Sigh. It's just so hard. To Gottlieb's credit, he stuck to his guns, even though the official who would have made the call on a violation was Tim Higgins. The same Tim Higgins who has worked like 20 Final Fours.

Following up on yesterday's post, where I singled out three conferences for their unusual performance so far, the Missouri Valley is finally getting attention from local scribes. The most substantive, fact-laden piece yesterday was written by Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star (link). I'm still waiting for the fluffy piece on the Sun Belt, or the one exposing the Mountain West as a true mid-major.

While the RPI is still not all that useful for individual teams at this point in the season, it is useful when evaluating conferences. Over the previous three seasons, it was rare for a conference to take a major jump or fall in the rankings between December 15th and the end of the season. Only three conferences ranked between 5th and 15th on 12/15 have made a move of four or more spots by the end of the season. That's three out of 33 possibilities. So there's little hope for the MWC, currently 15th, to crack the top ten, where they have resided in every year of their existence. And the MVC, currently seventh, is looking good for their first top ten finish since 1999.

Wednesday, December 15, 2004

Let’s Play Four

I can't begin any post today without announcing how disappointing it is to hear that Rick Majerus will coach USC next season. It's a great move for USC, but a blow to humanity, as Majerus will likely never appear as a analyst on a college basketball game again. Fortunately one of his rare TV gigs was captured for posterity in a game diary I did on the Michigan/Georgia Tech game a couple of weeks ago. Had I been able to see the future, I would have devoted more words in that post to the magnificent job he did that night, and less on game action. Rick, you will be missed. May your oh-fense be filled with dunks and lay-ups.

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Siena beat Youngstown State 79-78 in four overtimes last night. Quadruple overtime is something that happens roughly once in every 3000 games. The last time was on January 8, 2003 when Akron fell to Ohio 112 to 104. Ohio played in an astounding seven OT games that season (one short of the single-season record) with a total of 12 overtime periods (two short of that record).

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Since its birth for the 2000 season, the Mountain West Conference has enjoyed the perks of an unofficial automatic bid for its regular season champion. Along the way, champs with RPI ranks of 50, 64, and 70 have received at-large bids. This season may be the first where the conference tournament is the only way to get a bid. It's so bad for the MWC that UNLV's win at Auburn on Saturday was, without question, the premier victory for any conference member so far. And we are almost two-thirds of the way through the non-conference schedule.

No other MWC team has a win over a team that will be considered for an at-large berth, and it's doubtful even that Auburn will. The only realistic at-large chance within the conference is New Mexico. But they'll need wins over both Tennessee and Wake Forest to make up for a dreadful non-conference schedule.

So where are the MWC's usual second bid and occasional third bid going? From history, we know that the extra bids are likely to end up in the hands of the major conferences. But there's a chance a bid could go the MAC or WCC. And it's pretty obvious now that the Missouri Valley is a multi-bid league, barring some unbelievable parity within the conference.

An MVC team with as many as four conference losses will almost surely get a bid, and I expect any five-loss teams to get serious consideration. Even teams that aren't expected to compete for the conference crown got impressive wins over the weekend - Evansville winning at Western Kentucky [correction: game was at Evansville], and Illinois State coasted over Marshall. There's still time for all the good to be undone over the next three weeks of non-conference play, but based on the season-to-date, that's not something you should expect.

The one conference that could use a little more publicity is the Sun Belt. The conference sits tenth in the RPI due to member schools upgrading their schedules across the board, with respectable results to go with it. But an at-large from there is a longshot. Now if Louisiana Lafayette could knock off NC State tonight...