Thursday, December 09, 2004

Bye Bye Bibby

On Monday, USC coach Henry Bibby became the first head coach to be fired this season. And on Wednesday, Jim Saia became the first interim head coach to lose a game this season, as USC fell to Fresno State 71-68 at the Sports Arena.

It's been hashed and rehashed about how the timing of the move was puzzling. If AD Mike Garrett was comfortable having Bibby coach the team before the season began, what could change in four games? If he wasn't comfortable with Bibby in April, why not fire him then?

The thing is, Bibby was a pretty good coach. Sure, you're not going to find too many people who vouch for his character or that he has a warm personality, but he could coach. I could list what he did at a school with a pretty pathetic basketball history, however I'll let the USC Sports Information Department do it for me.

It's too early to second guess the choice of Bibby's permanent replacement. So I'd like to look back at coaching changes from four years ago, best and worst, but mainly the best.  I chose four years because that is usually when you'd like to see results from a new coach. There were 50 changes in the 2000 offseason. Here are the ones that turned out the best.

1) Georgia Tech. Bobby Cremins resigns, replaced by Siena head coach Paul Hewitt. Hewitt came from Siena where in three years he won 66 games with a team that won nine games the year before he arrived. The trend has been similar at Georgia Tech, with Hewitt leading a steady ascent to the top of college hoops.

2) Illinois. Lon Kruger goes to the NBA, replaced by Tulsa head coach Bill Self. Kruger didn't exactly leave the cupboard bare, but Self was able to improve on what he inherited. When he moved on to Kansas three years later, he left a foundation for greatness that Bruce Weber is enjoying today.

3) North Carolina. Bill Guthridge retires, replaced by Notre Dame head coach Matt Doherty. OK, so Doherty got fired three years later, but his recruits may well win it all this season and that should count for something. Plus, Matt Doherty was the first player I really hated growing up, and I kind of feel guilty about it.

4) Memphis. Johnny Jones (interim head coach) replaced by 76ers assistant John Calipari. Memphis was still reeling from the Tic Price debacle the previous season when Calipari came calling. Calipari's NBA career was a failure, but he has led Memphis back to respectability by relying on blue chippers that have fled (or will flee) early to the NBA. The Tigers still haven't returned to the Dana Kirk greatness of yore, but they're back to being an annual lock for the Tournament.

5) Air Force. Reggie Minton fired, replaced by Princeton assistant Joe Scott. Air Force decided to get semi-serious about hoops and fire Minton, who had coached the Falcons for 16 years and produced a record that was 145 games under .500. As opposed to Bibby, you couldn't find an acquaintance of Minton who wouldn't vouch for his character and warm personality. Scott led Air Force to it's first ever at-large bid in his fourth year and then went back to Princeton.

Worst hirings? Nolan Richardson III at Tennessee State and Perry Clark at Miami of Florida.

Wednesday, December 08, 2004

Not Flashy

The Syracuse/Oklahoma State game was a big dud. I don't care how much people want to talk about great defense, the big game last night was a replay of the 2002 NCAA Final between Maryland and Indiana, especially for the first 30 minutes. With all of that talent on the court, someone should have been making plays, but instead it was one unforced error after another. How disappointing was the game? Probably the fact that today's water-cooler talk will center around the Cowboys piling on with two meaningless buckets in the final second.

Two other games had a little more meaning when it comes to the postseason picture. Kent State may be the next mid-major darling, ending Creighton's unbeaten run with a convincing 67-58 win in Omaha. Kent already has two losses, albeit respectable ones at Marquette and at Old Dominion, and they don't have a eye-catching win. So they're going to be big fans of the best teams they have beaten, Creighton and Florida State, the remainder of the season. Two road/neutral wins against top 50 teams would be worth a lot towards an at-large bid.

The Mountain West is looking more and more like a one-bid league for the second time in their six year history. Utah State fell to the Mastodons of Indiana-Purdue-Fort Wayne 64-59 in the night's biggest upset. This hurts the MWC because USU won the Beehive State Championship by crushing both BYU and Utah. Any loss to a school with Indiana or Purdue in their name hurts the post-season profile, but the loss to IPFW is the worst of them all since they will struggling to keep their RPI rank below 300 by season's end. So it makes it that much harder for either Utah-based MWC team to justify the USU game as a "good loss."

Tuesday, December 07, 2004

The Third

Average possessions per game (2004-05) (Ranked by slowest)

1) Air Force (53.2)
2) Princeton (54.1)
3) Samford (58.4)
4) Georgetown (58.7)
5) Utah State (59.6)

When Georgetown hired John Thompson III last spring, I guess I didn't really think things through. Sure, it made sense for him to succeed Craig Esherick. The Hoyas had fallen on hard times. So JT3 was the obvious choice as someone whose name conjures up the glory years of Hoya basketball and as a bonus had established himself as a capable head coach.

But for whatever reason, I assumed the Princeton phase of Thompson's career was over. On some levels it makes sense that Thompson wouldn't change - he played in the Princeton system for four years and coached in it for nine. But he grew up watching daddy's teams, that played a more conventional style, that went to Final Fours. So I just assumed that by inheriting a cast of characters more suited to regular basketball, Thompson would immerse himself in the mainstream. And granted I am going only from box scores here, and sometimes the numbers do lie, but I don't think it's any coincidence that four games into the season, Georgetown sits right behind three Princeton systems in terms of tempo, decidely outside of the mainstream.

When Air Force coach Joe Scott went job hunting after last season, their was an unsubstantiated report in the Colorado Springs Gazette that St. John's was interested in his services. I, without any sources anywhere, concluded that this report was pure folly. There was no way that New York City's team would sign up to play the slow-down game. Sure enough, this rumor was never heard from again. The same thoughts, although I didn't think them at the time, apply to what used to be D.C.'s team.

There's only so far you can go with this system. For a program that has won national championships, it's a curious move. But there have been rumblings from the fans that the current athletic administration at Georgetown fancies itself more as Ivy League school, so maybe this fits into the master plan.

I have to point out though that this style is ideal for an underdog, which Georgetown will be on Thursday against #1 Illinois. If you think of a game as being timed in possessions, the game Thursday night will probably be about 10-15% shorter that what Illinois is used to playing. So with some hot three point shooting, the Hoyas will be able to hang with the Illini longer than most teams of Georgetown's quality.