Tuesday, December 14, 2004

Whatchu Talkin Bout Willis

Yesterday, Kyle over at midmajority.com provided a link to an article written by Rice head coach Willis Wilson on collegeinsider.com. It starts,

It’s a lost art, a thing of the past. Many college basketball analysts use such phrases when describing the current state of free throw shooting. On any given night you can peruse the box scores to find the evidence. Percentages from the charity stripe have declined in recent years, but the question is why?

Readers of this blog know that this is simply not the case, and it's not like one has to dig real far to figure this out. Just go to page 43 of the official NCAA Basketball Records Book. Percentages did go down slightly in 2004, but 2003 was the third best year ever for free throw accuracy. Even '04 wasn't too shabby, what with two players chasing the all-time single-season free throw accuracy record. Southwest Missouri State's Blake Ahearn got the record by missing only 3 out of 120 free throws for a 97.5% success rate. Duke's JJ Redick came up a little short at 95.3%.

When two people chased the home run record in the same season, fans immediately suspected that either the ball was juiced or the hitters were juiced. Some folks did the research and found out that balls were flying out of parks at an unprecedented rate. When two people chased a free throw record, nobody bothered to challenge the notion that free throw shooting accuracy is declining.

There's a camp out there that thinks statistics are meaningless. Numbers can be twisted to say anything, sure. But intuition can be off the mark also. Here we have a case where I'm guessing most fans and coaches believe that free throw shooting is deteriorating, when actually the opposite is true. If our intuition can be off on a matter as simple as this, why couldn't it be off on other fundamental basketball-related beliefs?

Monday, December 13, 2004

18 Unbeatens, One By One

A look at each of the remaining unbeatens, ordered by rank in the Pomeroy ratings (yeah, so that's not too self-serving)...

Illinois 9-0 (Pomeroy rank: 1)
Best performance to date: 12/1 beat Wake Forest 91-73, but it wasn't nearly that close.
Worst Performance: 12/9 beat Georgetown 74-59 in a game that was tied with four minutes remaining...in the first half.
Fun Fact: Second in the nation in offensive efficiency (1.208 points per possesion)

Oklahoma State 7-0 (Pomeroy rank: 2)
Best performance: 12/7 beat Syracuse 74-60.
Worst Performance: 11/27 beat Sam Houston State 73-57, but trailed by six at halftime.
Fun Fact: Fourth in the nation in field goal percentage.

Kansas 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 3)
Best performance: 11/29 beat Nevada 85-52.
Worst Performance: 11/19 beat Vermont 68-61 in a game that had suspense in the final minute.
Fun Fact: According to my ratings, has played the toughest schedule of any of the unbeatens.

Duke 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 4)
Best performance: 11/30 beat Michigan State 81-74.
Worst Performance: 11/22 beat Davidson 74-61.
Fun Fact: Ranks fourth in the nation in blocked shots per game.

Pittsburgh 7-0 (Pomeroy rank: 5)
Best performance: 12/7 beat Memphis 70-51.
Worst Performance: 12/11 beat Penn State 74-61.
Fun Fact: Have scored 80 or more points in five games this season. They had four such games all of last season.

Georgia Tech 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 6)
Best performance: 11/30 beat Michigan 99-68.
Worst Performance: 11/22 beat Illinois-Chicago 60-59.
Fun Fact: Had gone 16 years making at least one three in every game until going 0 for 2 from long range against Air Force on Saturday.

Cincinnati 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 8)
Best performance: 12/9 beat Vanderbilt 88-72.
Worst Performance: 11/24 beat Northern Iowa 76-70 in double overtime. UC trailed by 18 with 10 minutes to go.
Fun Fact: They do this every year, then lose in 2nd round of NCAA Tournament.

North Carolina State 7-0 (Pomeroy rank: 15)
Best performance: 11/19 beat East Carolina 100-66.
Worst Performance: 11/29 beat Purdue 60-53.
Fun Fact: N.C. State leads the nation in offensive efficiency (against a weak schedule, though)

Wichita State 5-0 (Pomeroy rank: 34)
Best performance: 12/11 beat Providence 90-86.
Worst Performance: 11/27 beat Austin Peay 72-62.
Fun Fact: Shoot 48.2 free throws/100 field goal attempts, 21st best in the nation (yeah that's lame, it's the best I could do).

Boston College 7-0 (Pomeroy rank: 35)
Best performance: 11/26 beat Clemson 79-70.
Worst Performance: 12/9 beat Holy Cross 63-60 in overtime.
Fun Fact: According to the RPI, have played the toughest schedule of the unbeatens, for what it's worth, which is nothing.

Marquette 9-0 (Pomeroy rank: 36)
Best performance: 12/11 beat Wisconsin 63-54.
Worst Performance: 11/14 beat Western Carolina 75-64.
Fun Fact: Marquette has rebounded 45% of its own missed shots, the fifth best rate in the nation.

West Virginia 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 49)
Best performance: 11/27 beat LSU 84-69.
Worst Performance: 11/24 beat Duquesne 72-69.
Fun Fact: Has committed .192 fouls per possesion, the lowest rate in the nation.

Fresno State 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 55)
Best performance: 12/8 beat USC 71-68.
Worst Performance: 12/3 beat Grand Canyon 63-53.
Fun Fact: They're 2nd in the nation in field goal percentage defense (32.4%).

Hawaii 5-0 (Pomeroy rank: 81)
Best performance: 11/29 beat Southern Illinois 66-64.
Worst Performance: 12/26 beat Coastal Carolina 72-65. Coastal lost to Chaminade two days later.
Fun Fact: Has two players with nearly identical names, Matt Gibson and Matt Gipson.

Kansas State 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 85)
Best performance: 11/27 beat Washington State 62-53.
Worst Performance: 11/19 beat North Dakota State 70-61.
Fun Fact: Has committed .202 fouls per possesion, the 3rd lowest rate in the nation.

Hofstra 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 105)
Best performance: 12/11 beat St. John's 78-68.
Worst Performance: 11/19 beat North Dakota State 70-61.
Fun Fact: 6-0 for the first time since moving to Division 1 in 1973.

Oral Roberts 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 106)
Best performance: 12/5 beat cross-town rival Tulsa 70-47.
Worst Performance: 12/11 beat Utah Valley State 92-89 on last-second shot.
Fun Fact: Has never started a season 7-0.

Texas A&M-College Station 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 166)
TAMU-CS has beaten North Carolina A&T, Trinity University, Texas-Permian Basin, Oakland, Prairie View, and Alabama A&M - all at home. Come on Aggies, you're an embarrassment to the Big XII.

Thursday, December 09, 2004

Game Diary: TCU/Kansas

I'm planning to do a running diary on the TCU/Kansas game tonight.  It could well be a blowout, but TCU was one of my sleeper teams at the beginning of the season, so I should get to know them better. One edge TCU has on KU is depth - they have 9 players averaging double figure minutes and a tenth who's close. TCU has never beaten a top five team and has lost 44 of 45 road games against ranked teams all-time. (Thanks, TCU athletic department.)

1st half

15:40 KU 6, TCU 6 - The guard matchup was the marquee billing for this game. But so far Shropshire and Santee have been jittery with a couple of giveaways early, While Miles and Langford have shown intensity like this is a conference game.

11:52 KU 14, TCU 12 - This game has no flow so far. TCU missed one of two on their first trip to the line. On the year they shoot less than 60% on free throws, so this is a problem area. TCU coach Neil Dougherty bears a striking resemblance to the kid from 'Webster.'

7:42 TCU 24, KU 21 - It's becoming apparent that if TCU is going to stay in this game, their depth will be the key reason. They have withstood the early energy from the Jayhawks and have found a rhythm. TCU can also afford to give a few more fouls than most KU opponents, and those fouls will come in handy since KU has an speed/athleticism advantage at most positions.

3:37, KU 38, TCU 33 - KU goes on an 11-0 run, but it's punctuated by Keith Langford's third foul, and on the next trip down the court, a Bill Self technical. Nile Murry makes four free throws in a row for TCU to momentarily stop the bleeding. KU's rebounding and turnover advantage have allowed them to shoot 13 more field goals than TCU so far.

Halftime - KU 47, TCU 37 - A comedy of turnovers and blocked shots to close out the half for TCU. TCU finishes the half with 14 turnovers, which needless to say is impossible to overcome against Kansas. Were TCU not hitting a respectable 48% from the field - and few of them were layups or dunks - this game would be out of reach. The biggest surprise is that KU's Christian Moody has 6 points. Coming into the game, he had more fouls (13) than made field goals (8).

2nd half

15:59 - KU 53, TCU 45 - If nothing else, I got to see Christian Moody's career high! He's dared by the TCU defense to shot from 17 feet and connects, giving him eight points. It's pretty sound strategy to say "Hey, if somebody's going to beat us, let it be Christian Moody." The problem is Moody is beating TCU, and so are Simien, Giddens, Miles, and Langford.

13:36 - KU 55, TCU 50 - A mini-run by TCU, even amidst what continues to be TurnoverFest '04, forces Bill Self to get a timeout. I swear at one point I heard Fran Fraschilla use the term "K-hawk," but I could be hearing things.

11:52 - KU 59, TCU 52 - Fraschilla tells us the "teardrop" is so named because the ball "comes down soft." Wouldn't a better name be the "parachute" or the "pillow?" TCU is up to 19 turnovers. But they're not going to challenge Hampton's season high of 37 against Clemson earlier this year.

7:53 - KU 69, TCU 56 - The Horned Frogs finally come back to earth on their shooting, at one time missing nine shots in a row. They've missed their last six shots from three. You're not going to stay in too many games with a 1:3 assist-to-turnover ratio.

3:08 - KU 80, TCU 67 - Christian Moody!! Moody has the assist of the year so far with a no-look over the shoulder toss to Giddens who converts a three. And while Ron Franklin and Fran Fraschilla are obsessed with whether certain players can get a double-double, Moody records his first career single-double without much fanfare - on a long two that gives him ten points. TCU's Nile Murry leads all scorers named after a river or not with 20 points so far.

Final KU 93, TCU 74 - Honestly, I didn't watch much of the final minutes, insteading opting to see the close of the UConn/UMass game which had enough bizarre moments in the final 10 seconds to produce of lengthy post on its own. I did manage to see Moody grab his 10th rebound, completing a double-double. Then, and only then, did he get much deserved praise from the announcers.

As far as TCU goes, they're too dependent on jump shooter to be less inconsistent than they were last season. They can compete in CUSA because there is a vacuum after the top three, but getting an at-large bid may be a little much to ask because their big men have little finishing ability.