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    It Doesn’t Matter

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, October 29, 2004


    The announcement that the NCAA will track a new "adjusted RPI" has generated a little buzz recently. Seth Davis came out of summer hibernation to write about it, Andy Katz followed, Joe Lunardi has piled on some thoughts of his own, and now local beat writers are in the mix.

    Here's the truth: this alternate formula that is designed to reward road play will have almost no impact on the selection process, and it will have absolutely no impact on scheduling. I'll post a few things over the next few days to prove this. But first I have to establish some basic points so we're all on the same page.

    Today's issue is from the Davis column:

    However, that ranking will be evaluated separately from the standard RPI, which is based 75 percent on who a team plays, and 0 percent on where.

    While the RPI formula literally factors…

    Read more...

    Take your pick

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, October 22, 2004


    Who would you rather have as your point guard...

     TO% A% Pts/40 FTA/FGA Player A 4.5 9.9 11.3 .292 Player B 3.6 9.3 16.7 .388 

    TO% = percentage of possessions a turnover is committed
    A% = percentage of possessions the player gets an assist
    Pts/40 = Points scored per 40 minutes of playing time
    FTA/FGA = Free throws attempted per field goals attempted

    As I will always preach, context is important. Both of these players played on teams that weren't very deep, but had one future NBA starter in the front court, and had a very accurate and productive perimeter shooter along side them. So the context is similar.

    Naturally I am trying to get you to say "Player B." Mr. B scored about 50% more than player A, assisted about the same (6% less), and turned the ball over 20% less. Player B shot more free throws,…

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    Skedjuls

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, October 12, 2004


    Since I am tied up with a few things, my humble pre-midnight madness offering to you is your team's schedule. The link actually goes to UConn's schedule, but with a little computer savvy, you can get to the D1 school of your choice. Last year's RPI rankings are listed next to the opponents, and exhibitions have an ugly gray color.

    The interface is somewhat buggy right now, which is why I am not linking to it on my homepage yet. It's an exclusive for blog readers only. Now don't you feel special? Maybe not, but by all means when you find a mistake, drop me a line.


    Read more...

    First in the SEC West, Last in Punctuality

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, October 7, 2004


    Thumbs down to the Mississippi State athletic department. With a week left until practice begins, the Bulldogs still have not released their basketball schedule. Their key non-conference games are in Anaheim against Arizona on December 5th and at Xavier on December 18th. You'll just have to wait for the rest. They should take a cue from schools like Georgetown and Providence that are still looking to fill one game. They have posted their slate while making it clear that another game will be added soon.


    Read more...

    Deconstructing Talking Head Myth #43

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, October 5, 2004


    "offense is behind the defense early in the season"

    This is not usually true. It may be true for some teams, but not for college basketball as a whole. Here's the season-to-date scoring average for Division 1 by date over the last six seasons...

           2004   2003   2002   2001   2000   1999
    12/1  139.3  140.2  141.4  144.1  140.1  138.6
    1/1   139.6  140.8  141.9  143.6  140.5  139.0
    2/1   139.0  140.0  142.1  142.8  140.3  139.5
    3/1   138.7  140.3  142.0  142.5  140.4  139.8
    End   138.5  140.0  142.0  142.3  140.2  139.8

    In four of the last six seasons scoring peaked sometime in late December. Only in the 98-99 season was there a noticeable increase in scoring after January 1st. So offenses may be rusty for the first few weeks of the season, but there's a 50/50 chance that defense will improve more by season's end.


    Read more...