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    Bubble Analysis

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, February 29, 2004


    Two weeks until the speculation can end. Conference tournaments will decide the fate of most teams that still have questions about their at-large status.

    (One question mark means you're in, but shaky. Two question marks means you're out, but can get in with a strong finish.)

    ACC (6 teams in) – Duke, North Carolina St., Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Maryland(?), Florida State(??).

    Plenty of folks think 6-10 in ACC play is good enough to receive a bid. My rule of thumb is any team has to be within a game of .500 to earn an at-large bid.

    This statement can be found in Michael Wilbon’s column in Sunday’s Washington Post. I love how he applies his own ‘rule of thumb’ to the selection process. How about this: let’s apply the committee’s rules and go from there? Here are the only two rules the committee is given when…

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    Rebounding 2’s vs. 3’s

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, February 26, 2004


    Here’s what I have come up for offensive rebounding percentages (OR%) for each type of missed shot. This is based on all games involving at least one D-1 team played between January 1 and February 21.

    3 point shot: 21.0% (21% of missed 3 pointers are rebounded by the offense) 2 point shot: 41.1% Free throw: 20.3%

    Keep in mind these are NCAA-wide averages. Individual teams will be better or worse than these percentages depending on their personnel and who they play against.

    If you question the validity of the numbers (which you should), just watch a few games with this in mind and see if it’s believable.

    I was going to post a bunch of statistical mumbo-jumbo on the meaning of this, but I will refrain for now.

    The one thing I’ll point out is this: The results give the 3 point shot an interesting symmetry. They’re…

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    Bursting Day

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, February 25, 2004


    Kent State lost at Buffalo 82-68 tonight, a team that had no previous top 100 wins. There's no way to give Kent any benefit of the doubt here, they got waxed from start to finish by a bad ballclub. This effectively ends the Golden Flashes at-large chances, barring possibly a run to the MAC championship against Western Michigan.

    Richmond got knocked off by Rhode Island, and now probably needs a win over St. Joe's in the A-10 tourney to get in.

    Elsewhere, Florida State missed a golden opportunity to sew up a bid by losing at Wake Forest in overtime. They blew a 15 point lead with 10 minutes to play.

    The one team the helped itself was DePaul, getting the road win at Louisville. CUSA has been a sharing conference this year, with good RPI teams Louisville and Cincinnati freely giving away games to the rest of the league.…

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    Maryland, My Maryland

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, February 24, 2004


    Big games tonight include Alabama @ Auburn, Oklahoma State @ Missouri, and Clemson @ Maryland. Alabama, Missouri, and Maryland all need wins in these games.

    Maryland’s FG percentage in their last five games: 36, 40, 39, 32, 37. The good news for the Terps is that Clemson has not held anyone remotely close to those numbers in their ACC road games this year (47, 47, 45, 45, 49, 50).


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    Turning the Tables

    BYU shoots 82% (14-17) in the 2nd half to pull away from Air Force. Meanwhile, UTEP hangs on to beat Hawaii.

    Like Air Force, UTEP is trying to go from worst to first in its conference in an unlikely attempt to make the tournament. Last year, the Miners were 6-24 overall with an RPI rank of 301! UTEP leads the WAC by a half game over Rice, but has 3 road games to close out the season.


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    Bracket Buster Continued

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, February 23, 2004


    Air Force at BYU is getting ready to tip off. BYU has won all but one of its last 61 games at the Marriott Center. In their previous meeting, Air Force shot over 70% and ripped BYU from start to finish. This game is much more important to BYU, although Air Force is in no position to coast.

    In WAC action, UTEP is comfortably ahead of Hawaii at the half in a very important game for the Miners.


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    Bubble Analysis

    Bubble teams should be rooting against Alabama, Maryland, and Florida State...

    (One question mark means you're in, but shaky. Two question marks means you're out, but can get in with a strong finish.)

    ACC (7 teams in) – Duke, North Carolina St., Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Florida St., Maryland.

    Right now Maryland is 13-10 with 8 losses to the top 15. They are 4-7 in conference with 4 games remaining, 3 at home, and 2 of those against the 8th and 9th place teams in the conference. If they get to 6-10, they’ll probably still need a win in the ACC tourney to get in. But the other home game is against Wake Forest, and that is somewhat winnable as well. For now I put them down as safe.

    Florida St. faces some difficulty at 6-7 and with road games against Wake and Ga. Tech, and a…

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    Bracket Buster 2: The Wrath of Kann

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, February 22, 2004


    ESPN gave us much better Bracket Buster matchups this year, due to the wise decision to include more teams in the event. The best game was played in Kalamazoo, Michigan of all places. The Broncs' 'Zoo is where Western Michigan center Anthony Kann drained a 13 footer as the horn sounded to send the game to OT. Then the Broncos closed out a victory to keep their at-large hopes alive. The MAC also got good news from a win by Kent St. over Creighton. This nearly assures the conference of two teams in the dance if both win out in the regular season.

    Other thoughts:

    1) Alabama upset Mississippi State today. I have never considered Alabama a bubble team. They are not a lock either - they are really playing for their own automatic bid. They have the #1 strength of schedule and will hold that distinction on Selection Sunday.…

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    George W Winning Votes

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, February 18, 2004


    George Washington beats Dayton tonight and further muddies the bubble situation from the Atlantic 10. Richmond, GW, and Xavier are all fighting for bids. It's possible two of them will get in. It's possible none of them will get in. But it's most likely that one and only one will get a bid. Whomever finishes 2nd in the A-10 West should get the bid. Here's how the conference standings look now:

    Team/Record (Remaining games)

    Dayton/10-2 (@#57 Xavier, vs. #154 LaSalle, vs. #93 Rhode Island, @ #179 Duquesne)

    GW/9-3 (@ #179 Duquesne, vs. #43 Richmond, @ #57 Xavier, @ #154 LaSalle)

    Richmond/7-5 (vs. #154 LaSalle, @#93 Rhode Island, @#62 GW, vs. #141 UMass)

    Xavier/6-5 (vs. #38 Dayton, @#187 St. Bonny, vs. #179 Duquesne, vs. #62 GW, @#79 Temple)

    The schedule favors Richmond a little, but they have two games to make up on GW. No doubt the February 28th game between…

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    Perfect Record, Perfect Schedule

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, February 17, 2004


    There's a growing sentiment across the country that St. Joe's non-conference schedule does not deserve the lofty ranking it is getting from the RPI (or just about any other objective system out there).

    But consider this, of the Hawks 11 non-conference opponents, all of them have winning records entering Tuesday's play.

    They're the only team in Division 1 that can claim this. Four other teams have just one non-winning team on their non-conference schedule, but they are all (Belmont, Austin Peay, Delaware State, The Citadel) from far lesser conferences than the Atlantic 10.

    SJU non conference opponents and records

    Gonzaga 21-2
    Boston U. 19-4
    Old Dominion 15-8
    San Francisco 14-12
    Penn 12-8
    Boston College 17-8
    Drexel 15-8
    California 11-10
    Pacific 16-7
    Delaware 15-9
    Villanova 12-9

    Read more...

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