CourtIntelligence powered by

Most recent entries

  • Week in Review VI, 1/23 - 1/29
  • Determining the best conference
  • Week in Review VI, 1/16-1/22
  • Starting over and over and over
  • Week In Review V, 1/9-1/15
  • First-year coach of the year
  • Week in Review IV, 1/2-1/8
  • Ted Valentine hates to call fouls
  • Weeks in Review III, 12/5-12/18
  • Introduction to the PASR recruiting model
  • The good stuff

    At other venues...
  • ($)
  • Deadspin
  • Slate

  • Strategy
  • Whether to foul up 3 late
  • The value of 2-for-1’s

  • Philosophy
  • All points are not created equal
  • Brady Heslip’s non-slump
  • The magic of negative motivation
  • A treatise on plus-minus
  • The preseason AP poll is great
  • The lack of information in close-game performance
  • Why I don’t believe in clutchness*

  • Fun stuff
  • The missing 1-point games
  • Which two teams last lost longest ago?
  • How many first-round picks will Kentucky have?
  • Prepare for the Kobe invasion
  • Predicting John Henson's free throw percentage
  • Can Derrick Williams set the three-point accuracy record?
  • Play-by-play Theater: earliest disqualification
  • Monthly Archives

  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • July 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • November 2010
  • October 2010
  • August 2010
  • July 2010
  • June 2010
  • May 2010
  • April 2010
  • March 2010
  • February 2010
  • January 2010
  • December 2009
  • November 2009
  • October 2009
  • July 2009
  • February 2009
  • January 2009
  • December 2008
  • November 2008
  • October 2007
  • September 2007
  • July 2007
  • June 2007
  • May 2007
  • April 2007
  • March 2007
  • February 2007
  • January 2007
  • December 2006
  • November 2006
  • October 2006
  • September 2006
  • August 2006
  • July 2006
  • June 2006
  • May 2006
  • April 2006
  • March 2006
  • February 2006
  • January 2006
  • December 2005
  • November 2005
  • October 2005
  • September 2005
  • August 2005
  • July 2005
  • June 2005
  • May 2005
  • April 2005
  • March 2005
  • February 2005
  • January 2005
  • December 2004
  • November 2004
  • October 2004
  • September 2004
  • August 2004
  • July 2004
  • June 2004
  • May 2004
  • April 2004
  • March 2004
  • February 2004
  • January 2004
  • December 2003
  • November 2003

  • RSS feed

    Bubble Analysis

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, February 29, 2004

    Two weeks until the speculation can end. Conference tournaments will decide the fate of most teams that still have questions about their at-large status.

    (One question mark means you're in, but shaky. Two question marks means you're out, but can get in with a strong finish.)

    ACC (6 teams in) – Duke, North Carolina St., Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Maryland(?), Florida State(??).

    Plenty of folks think 6-10 in ACC play is good enough to receive a bid. My rule of thumb is any team has to be within a game of .500 to earn an at-large bid.

    This statement can be found in Michael Wilbon’s column in Sunday’s Washington Post. I love how he applies his own ‘rule of thumb’ to the selection process. How about this: let’s apply the committee’s rules and go from there? Here are the only two rules the committee is given when…


    Rebounding 2’s vs. 3’s

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, February 26, 2004

    Here’s what I have come up for offensive rebounding percentages (OR%) for each type of missed shot. This is based on all games involving at least one D-1 team played between January 1 and February 21.

    3 point shot: 21.0% (21% of missed 3 pointers are rebounded by the offense) 2 point shot: 41.1% Free throw: 20.3%

    Keep in mind these are NCAA-wide averages. Individual teams will be better or worse than these percentages depending on their personnel and who they play against.

    If you question the validity of the numbers (which you should), just watch a few games with this in mind and see if it’s believable.

    I was going to post a bunch of statistical mumbo-jumbo on the meaning of this, but I will refrain for now.

    The one thing I’ll point out is this: The results give the 3 point shot an interesting symmetry. They’re…


    Bursting Day

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, February 25, 2004

    Kent State lost at Buffalo 82-68 tonight, a team that had no previous top 100 wins. There's no way to give Kent any benefit of the doubt here, they got waxed from start to finish by a bad ballclub. This effectively ends the Golden Flashes at-large chances, barring possibly a run to the MAC championship against Western Michigan.

    Richmond got knocked off by Rhode Island, and now probably needs a win over St. Joe's in the A-10 tourney to get in.

    Elsewhere, Florida State missed a golden opportunity to sew up a bid by losing at Wake Forest in overtime. They blew a 15 point lead with 10 minutes to play.

    The one team the helped itself was DePaul, getting the road win at Louisville. CUSA has been a sharing conference this year, with good RPI teams Louisville and Cincinnati freely giving away games to the rest of the league.…


    Maryland, My Maryland

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, February 24, 2004

    Big games tonight include Alabama @ Auburn, Oklahoma State @ Missouri, and Clemson @ Maryland. Alabama, Missouri, and Maryland all need wins in these games.

    Maryland’s FG percentage in their last five games: 36, 40, 39, 32, 37. The good news for the Terps is that Clemson has not held anyone remotely close to those numbers in their ACC road games this year (47, 47, 45, 45, 49, 50).


    Turning the Tables

    BYU shoots 82% (14-17) in the 2nd half to pull away from Air Force. Meanwhile, UTEP hangs on to beat Hawaii.

    Like Air Force, UTEP is trying to go from worst to first in its conference in an unlikely attempt to make the tournament. Last year, the Miners were 6-24 overall with an RPI rank of 301! UTEP leads the WAC by a half game over Rice, but has 3 road games to close out the season.


    Bracket Buster Continued

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, February 23, 2004

    Air Force at BYU is getting ready to tip off. BYU has won all but one of its last 61 games at the Marriott Center. In their previous meeting, Air Force shot over 70% and ripped BYU from start to finish. This game is much more important to BYU, although Air Force is in no position to coast.

    In WAC action, UTEP is comfortably ahead of Hawaii at the half in a very important game for the Miners.


    Bubble Analysis

    Bubble teams should be rooting against Alabama, Maryland, and Florida State...

    (One question mark means you're in, but shaky. Two question marks means you're out, but can get in with a strong finish.)

    ACC (7 teams in) – Duke, North Carolina St., Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Florida St., Maryland.

    Right now Maryland is 13-10 with 8 losses to the top 15. They are 4-7 in conference with 4 games remaining, 3 at home, and 2 of those against the 8th and 9th place teams in the conference. If they get to 6-10, they’ll probably still need a win in the ACC tourney to get in. But the other home game is against Wake Forest, and that is somewhat winnable as well. For now I put them down as safe.

    Florida St. faces some difficulty at 6-7 and with road games against Wake and Ga. Tech, and a…


    Bracket Buster 2: The Wrath of Kann

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, February 22, 2004

    ESPN gave us much better Bracket Buster matchups this year, due to the wise decision to include more teams in the event. The best game was played in Kalamazoo, Michigan of all places. The Broncs' 'Zoo is where Western Michigan center Anthony Kann drained a 13 footer as the horn sounded to send the game to OT. Then the Broncos closed out a victory to keep their at-large hopes alive. The MAC also got good news from a win by Kent St. over Creighton. This nearly assures the conference of two teams in the dance if both win out in the regular season.

    Other thoughts:

    1) Alabama upset Mississippi State today. I have never considered Alabama a bubble team. They are not a lock either - they are really playing for their own automatic bid. They have the #1 strength of schedule and will hold that distinction on Selection Sunday.…


    George W Winning Votes

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, February 18, 2004

    George Washington beats Dayton tonight and further muddies the bubble situation from the Atlantic 10. Richmond, GW, and Xavier are all fighting for bids. It's possible two of them will get in. It's possible none of them will get in. But it's most likely that one and only one will get a bid. Whomever finishes 2nd in the A-10 West should get the bid. Here's how the conference standings look now:

    Team/Record (Remaining games)

    Dayton/10-2 (@#57 Xavier, vs. #154 LaSalle, vs. #93 Rhode Island, @ #179 Duquesne)

    GW/9-3 (@ #179 Duquesne, vs. #43 Richmond, @ #57 Xavier, @ #154 LaSalle)

    Richmond/7-5 (vs. #154 LaSalle, @#93 Rhode Island, @#62 GW, vs. #141 UMass)

    Xavier/6-5 (vs. #38 Dayton, @#187 St. Bonny, vs. #179 Duquesne, vs. #62 GW, @#79 Temple)

    The schedule favors Richmond a little, but they have two games to make up on GW. No doubt the February 28th game between…


    Perfect Record, Perfect Schedule

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, February 17, 2004

    There's a growing sentiment across the country that St. Joe's non-conference schedule does not deserve the lofty ranking it is getting from the RPI (or just about any other objective system out there).

    But consider this, of the Hawks 11 non-conference opponents, all of them have winning records entering Tuesday's play.

    They're the only team in Division 1 that can claim this. Four other teams have just one non-winning team on their non-conference schedule, but they are all (Belmont, Austin Peay, Delaware State, The Citadel) from far lesser conferences than the Atlantic 10.

    SJU non conference opponents and records

    Gonzaga 21-2
    Boston U. 19-4
    Old Dominion 15-8
    San Francisco 14-12
    Penn 12-8
    Boston College 17-8
    Drexel 15-8
    California 11-10
    Pacific 16-7
    Delaware 15-9
    Villanova 12-9


    Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 >