Hoo’s Grillin’ Gillen Now?
by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 2, 2004
It's not often or maybe ever that a team loses 8 of it's first 10 conference games and then ends up playing for an at-large bid in the regular season finale. But that's exactly what has happened to Virginia this year. Tonight, for the 4th time in their last 5 games, they won on a last second shot. 3 of those wins have been against top 20 teams, and tonight it was against Wake Forest.
The same fans that have assailed coach Pete Gillen over the past 2 years have rushed the University Hall court in the last 3 home games. Sunday's UVa @ Maryland game in prime-time becomes a play-in game with the loser likely removed from at-large consideration.
Gonzaga not a #1
One of the oft-asked and often irrelevant questions about the NCAA field is regarding the number one seeds. Duke, Stanford, and Saint Joe's are all assumed to be guaranteed this honor, but who will get that final top seed?
It won't be Gonzaga. They have no wins against the RPI top 25. The last thing the committee ever wants to do is reward a team with a weak schedule - not that it's the 'Zags fault. Already, #1s are going out to the best teams in the 7th (A-10) and 8th (Pac-10) best conferences. They can't give one out to the champion of the 12th (WCC) best conference also.
That last #1 is probably going to go the winner of the SEC tourney, assuming it is Mississippi State or Kentucky. MSU is unbeaten on the road - only Stanford and Saint Joe's can share that claim. UK has 9 top…
Bubble Analysis
by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, February 29, 2004
Two weeks until the speculation can end. Conference tournaments will decide the fate of most teams that still have questions about their at-large status.
(One question mark means you're in, but shaky. Two question marks means you're out, but can get in with a strong finish.)
ACC (6 teams in) – Duke, North Carolina St., Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Maryland(?), Florida State(??).
Plenty of folks think 6-10 in ACC play is good enough to receive a bid. My rule of thumb is any team has to be within a game of .500 to earn an at-large bid.
This statement can be found in Michael Wilbon’s column in Sunday’s Washington Post. I love how he applies his own ‘rule of thumb’ to the selection process. How about this: let’s apply the committee’s rules and go from there? Here are the only two rules the committee is given when…
Rebounding 2’s vs. 3’s
by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, February 26, 2004
Here’s what I have come up for offensive rebounding percentages (OR%) for each type of missed shot. This is based on all games involving at least one D-1 team played between January 1 and February 21.
3 point shot: 21.0% (21% of missed 3 pointers are rebounded by the offense) 2 point shot: 41.1% Free throw: 20.3%
Keep in mind these are NCAA-wide averages. Individual teams will be better or worse than these percentages depending on their personnel and who they play against.
If you question the validity of the numbers (which you should), just watch a few games with this in mind and see if it’s believable.
I was going to post a bunch of statistical mumbo-jumbo on the meaning of this, but I will refrain for now.
The one thing I’ll point out is this: The results give the 3 point shot an interesting symmetry. They’re…
Bursting Day
by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, February 25, 2004
Kent State lost at Buffalo 82-68 tonight, a team that had no previous top 100 wins. There's no way to give Kent any benefit of the doubt here, they got waxed from start to finish by a bad ballclub. This effectively ends the Golden Flashes at-large chances, barring possibly a run to the MAC championship against Western Michigan.
Richmond got knocked off by Rhode Island, and now probably needs a win over St. Joe's in the A-10 tourney to get in.
Elsewhere, Florida State missed a golden opportunity to sew up a bid by losing at Wake Forest in overtime. They blew a 15 point lead with 10 minutes to play.
The one team the helped itself was DePaul, getting the road win at Louisville. CUSA has been a sharing conference this year, with good RPI teams Louisville and Cincinnati freely giving away games to the rest of the league.…
Maryland, My Maryland
by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, February 24, 2004
Big games tonight include Alabama @ Auburn, Oklahoma State @ Missouri, and Clemson @ Maryland. Alabama, Missouri, and Maryland all need wins in these games.
Maryland’s FG percentage in their last five games: 36, 40, 39, 32, 37. The good news for the Terps is that Clemson has not held anyone remotely close to those numbers in their ACC road games this year (47, 47, 45, 45, 49, 50).
Turning the Tables
BYU shoots 82% (14-17) in the 2nd half to pull away from Air Force. Meanwhile, UTEP hangs on to beat Hawaii.
Like Air Force, UTEP is trying to go from worst to first in its conference in an unlikely attempt to make the tournament. Last year, the Miners were 6-24 overall with an RPI rank of 301! UTEP leads the WAC by a half game over Rice, but has 3 road games to close out the season.
Bracket Buster Continued
by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, February 23, 2004
Air Force at BYU is getting ready to tip off. BYU has won all but one of its last 61 games at the Marriott Center. In their previous meeting, Air Force shot over 70% and ripped BYU from start to finish. This game is much more important to BYU, although Air Force is in no position to coast.
In WAC action, UTEP is comfortably ahead of Hawaii at the half in a very important game for the Miners.
Bubble Analysis
Bubble teams should be rooting against Alabama, Maryland, and Florida State...
(One question mark means you're in, but shaky. Two question marks means you're out, but can get in with a strong finish.)
ACC (7 teams in) – Duke, North Carolina St., Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Florida St., Maryland.
Right now Maryland is 13-10 with 8 losses to the top 15. They are 4-7 in conference with 4 games remaining, 3 at home, and 2 of those against the 8th and 9th place teams in the conference. If they get to 6-10, they’ll probably still need a win in the ACC tourney to get in. But the other home game is against Wake Forest, and that is somewhat winnable as well. For now I put them down as safe.
Florida St. faces some difficulty at 6-7 and with road games against Wake and Ga. Tech, and a…
Bracket Buster 2: The Wrath of Kann
by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, February 22, 2004
ESPN gave us much better Bracket Buster matchups this year, due to the wise decision to include more teams in the event. The best game was played in Kalamazoo, Michigan of all places. The Broncs' 'Zoo is where Western Michigan center Anthony Kann drained a 13 footer as the horn sounded to send the game to OT. Then the Broncos closed out a victory to keep their at-large hopes alive. The MAC also got good news from a win by Kent St. over Creighton. This nearly assures the conference of two teams in the dance if both win out in the regular season.
Other thoughts:
1) Alabama upset Mississippi State today. I have never considered Alabama a bubble team. They are not a lock either - they are really playing for their own automatic bid. They have the #1 strength of schedule and will hold that distinction on Selection Sunday.…