by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 16, 2005
Before I present a breakdown on Thursday's featured game, I'm going to throw a couple of links at you. Surely if you're a regular at this site, you know of Yoni's site. And you are probably already participating in his blogger's bracket. But if not, get over there and fill out a bracket. You can win money!
Additionally, the people over at Baseball Toaster allowed Big Ten Wonk and me to take over their site for a day. Check it out!
Now, a breakdown of Arizona/Utah State, set to tip at 7:20 EST on Thursday from Taco Bell Arena in Boise, Idaho. It's the game I am most looking forward to on day one of the tourney.
Thanks for providing just about the only statistical resource for college basketball on the Web. Without you, I'd have to calculate all the team efficiencies by hand like I…
by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, March 14, 2005
Some random thoughts on the brackets...
- One of the first games to be announced was Oklahoma State/SE Louisiana. My first reaction was "81-29." SE Louisiana is to Cajun Country what Washington State is to the Palouse. Billy Kennedy's team wins the same way Dick Bennett's does. Nine times this year the Lions have held their opponents to 20 points or less in the first half, including 13 on two occasions. You may remember that Oklahoma State and Washington State hooked up in one of the biggest mismatches of the season in December, with the Cowboys winning 81-29.
- After Northern Iowa made the field, was there anyone rooting for Indiana to show up in the field more than Rick Hartzell?
- New Mexico came in as a 12 seed. The last at-larges all got 11 seeds. So it's safe to assume that had UNM not won the MWC tourney,…
by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, March 13, 2005
It was a no-brainer that if Duke won the ACC tourney while beating likely number one seeds Wake Forest and UNC in the process, they would deserve the final number one. Duke won the ACC, but went through NC State and Georgia Tech in the process.
Washington deserves the final number one seed. Their resumes are almost identical, but Washington played 12 top 50 teams versus nine for Duke. When you break down their wins and losses, as I did below, I can't see why Duke would get the nod in an objective look at things.
The number one seed is largely a status symbol anyway, but would mean more to a program like Washington who deserves to be recognized for a great season.
Best Wins (by RPI rank and site, data as of Saturday)Washington: 9N, 9H, 16N, 17N, 24N, 38H, 42H, 42N Duke: 4H, 6H, 21H, 27N,…
Luke Winn has followed through on the RPI fiasco, and has an excellent summary of things here. ESPN is apparently going to pretend that this never happened. It's all pretty hilarious for the most part, and I'll have some more things to say on it later. In the meantime, must get some sleep.
by Ken Pomeroy on Saturday, March 12, 2005
Regarding the previous post on the RPI formula: I got some unexpected confirmation that indeed, the formula I am now posting is the one being used by the selection committee. Makes me glad I never charged for this stuff.
by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, March 10, 2005
Until Wednesday, the Pac-10 had been the country's No. 2-rated RPI league for months. Bowlsby himself thought the Pac-10 remained the No. 2 league, referring to that league as second behind the ACC, until Hancock informed him of the change.
The ACC remains No. 1. The Pac-10? It's now fourth. In between are the Big 12 (second) and the Big East (third), which had been third and fourth behind the Pac-10 until Wednesday.
In the computation you have been seeing on my page, the Pac-10 has remained number two all week, and comfortably so. But now I am fairly certain this computation is wrong based on the above the information.
Back in January, when the RPI changes…
Andy Katz has an article detailing the hopes of bubble teams after talking to some people close to the committee. (But I think it's hard to believe Notre Dame, with an RPI of 92, still has a bid after a stinker of a performance against Rutgers). Katz knew the field before CBS did last March, and if you want to know who is in and who is out before anyone else on Sunday, you would be advised to listen to your local ESPN affiliate as I am sure Andy will be dropping some hints Sunday afternoon.
Elsewhere, Luke Winn has a comprehensive look at the selection process. What caught my eye about this is the 'team sheet' example presented for Illinois. All of the data looks factual...except that it lists Illinois as having played two home games against Ohio State and two road games against Purdue.…
by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 9, 2005
UNC's Rashad McCants has missed the Tar Heels last four games due to a mysterious intestinal disorder. UNC has won all four games, but not surprisingly, they have not been as dominant without him. Most of the minutes vacated by McCants have been snapped up by the offensively-challenged and smaller Melvin Scott. How has McCants' absence affected his team? Let's look at how UNC performed in the four games without him, and against those same opponents earlier in the season when McCants played.With McCants Without McCants -Opponent- Tempo OE DE Tempo OE DE NC St. 67.9 140 105 62.9 129 113 Maryland 89.4 122 84 72.6 117 114 Florida St. 68.0 119 88 73.4 124 103 Duke 71.5 98 99 68.0 110 107 Average 74.2 120 94 69.2 120 109
If you have been reading this blog for a while then you're familiar…
by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 8, 2005
So I'm about to announce the at-large field for this year's tourney. The real committee can ignore Sunday's games, so why can't I ignore games starting on Tuesday?
Naturally, I'm sure I'll get a few wrong. But one thing I won't be wrong about is this - New Mexico has no shot at an at-large. Yeah, Ritchie McKay has told anyone that will listen that Danny Granger was out for three of their six losses, and this has been trumpeted religiously by various media outlets. But who have they beat with him? Utah and that's it. You can't really excuse a double digit loss at BYU, regardless of Granger being out - and the Lobos have only played four games against the top 100, losing three. This team needs to win the MWC tourney - and I have a funny feeling they will, costing one of the teams below an…
by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, March 7, 2005
Now that every school (except two Ivy Leaguers) has had a chance to honor their seniors, I thought I would recognize five seniors that made a difference during their career. This got me to thinking, why isn't there some award for the best seniors in the nation? With so many people wringing their hands over the recent increase in early departures, it only seems logical that someone produce an all-senior team.
Here's my list of top seniors - with some qualifications. First, I'm doing this to spotlight the career progression of each player, so I decided to eliminate transfers from consideration (sorry John Lucas, Lawrence Roberts, and Danny Granger). Second, I needed detailed player and team stats from all four years to do this analysis, and my lazy research department was unable to find them for Wayne Simien and Salim Stoudamire.
So the result is five players that may…