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    More RPI

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, March 13, 2005


    Luke Winn has followed through on the RPI fiasco, and has an excellent summary of things here. ESPN is apparently going to pretend that this never happened. It's all pretty hilarious for the most part, and I'll have some more things to say on it later. In the meantime, must get some sleep.

    By the way, if anyone from inside the ESPN compound wants to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on exactly what has been going on behind the scenes over there in the last couple of days, your secrets are…

    Read more...

    Confirmed

    by Ken Pomeroy on Saturday, March 12, 2005


    Regarding the previous post on the RPI formula: I got some unexpected confirmation that indeed, the formula I am now posting is the one being used by the selection committee. Makes me glad I never charged for this stuff.


    Read more...

    Breaking RPI News

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, March 10, 2005


    After seeing the 'team sheet' that Luke Winn posted, the alarm bells sounded in my head (see previous post). But then I read Gregg Doyel's piece this morning, and noticed this...

    Until Wednesday, the Pac-10 had been the country's No. 2-rated RPI league for months. Bowlsby himself thought the Pac-10 remained the No. 2 league, referring to that league as second behind the ACC, until Hancock informed him of the change.

    The ACC remains No. 1. The Pac-10? It's now fourth. In between are the Big 12 (second) and the Big East (third), which had been third and fourth behind the Pac-10 until Wednesday.

    In the computation you have been seeing on my page, the Pac-10 has remained number two all week, and comfortably so. But now I am fairly certain this computation is wrong based on the above the information.

    Back in January, when the RPI changes…

    Read more...

    Tourney Talk

    Andy Katz has an article detailing the hopes of bubble teams after talking to some people close to the committee. (But I think it's hard to believe Notre Dame, with an RPI of 92, still has a bid after a stinker of a performance against Rutgers). Katz knew the field before CBS did last March, and if you want to know who is in and who is out before anyone else on Sunday, you would be advised to listen to your local ESPN affiliate as I am sure Andy will be dropping some hints Sunday afternoon.

    Elsewhere, Luke Winn has a comprehensive look at the selection process. What caught my eye about this is the 'team sheet' example presented for Illinois. All of the data looks factual...except that it lists Illinois as having played two home games against Ohio State and two road games against Purdue.…

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    Cants Win It All Without Rashad

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 9, 2005


    UNC's Rashad McCants has missed the Tar Heels last four games due to a mysterious intestinal disorder. UNC has won all four games, but not surprisingly, they have not been as dominant without him. Most of the minutes vacated by McCants have been snapped up by the offensively-challenged and smaller Melvin Scott. How has McCants' absence affected his team? Let's look at how UNC performed in the four games without him, and against those same opponents earlier in the season when McCants played.

      With McCants Without McCants -Opponent- Tempo OE DE Tempo OE DE  NC St. 67.9 140 105 62.9 129 113 Maryland 89.4 122 84 72.6 117 114 Florida St. 68.0 119 88 73.4 124 103 Duke 71.5 98 99 68.0 110 107 Average 74.2 120 94 69.2 120 109  

    If you have been reading this blog for a while then you're familiar…

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    The Field Revealed

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 8, 2005


    So I'm about to announce the at-large field for this year's tourney. The real committee can ignore Sunday's games, so why can't I ignore games starting on Tuesday?

    Naturally, I'm sure I'll get a few wrong. But one thing I won't be wrong about is this - New Mexico has no shot at an at-large. Yeah, Ritchie McKay has told anyone that will listen that Danny Granger was out for three of their six losses, and this has been trumpeted religiously by various media outlets. But who have they beat with him? Utah and that's it. You can't really excuse a double digit loss at BYU, regardless of Granger being out - and the Lobos have only played four games against the top 100, losing three. This team needs to win the MWC tourney - and I have a funny feeling they will, costing one of the teams below an…

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    Senior Day

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, March 7, 2005


    Now that every school (except two Ivy Leaguers) has had a chance to honor their seniors, I thought I would recognize five seniors that made a difference during their career. This got me to thinking, why isn't there some award for the best seniors in the nation? With so many people wringing their hands over the recent increase in early departures, it only seems logical that someone produce an all-senior team.

    Here's my list of top seniors - with some qualifications. First, I'm doing this to spotlight the career progression of each player, so I decided to eliminate transfers from consideration (sorry John Lucas, Lawrence Roberts, and Danny Granger). Second, I needed detailed player and team stats from all four years to do this analysis, and my lazy research department was unable to find them for Wayne Simien and Salim Stoudamire.

    So the result is five players that may…

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    Field Goal Percentage Difference

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, March 3, 2005


    Back in November, I played around with how the national leaders in various statistics accumulated wins and losses during the 2004 season. One of the statistics that correlated best with winning was field goal percentage difference. You shoot better than your opponents, you win games. It's not a revelation that will rock the foundation of basketball, but it's something worth investigating at the early part of March.

    All other things being equal - namely turnovers, offensive rebounds, and free throws -  the team that shoots better will usually win (the exceptions occuring when three point shooting mucks this up). And those things often are more equal in March than at other times of the year.

    So on the stats page, field goal % difference has been posted for all 330 D1 teams. The stat is simply offensive FG% minus defensive FG%.

    Some observations...

    The highest ranked losing team…

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    There’s Nothing To See Here

    Luke Winn has a piece at si.com about three teams that changed personalities this season without a coaching change. It's kind of an extension of the Basketball ShrinkTM I introduced a while back, with the respective coaches trying to explain the changes. This is especially nice because 1) We all get to read something by somebody who took more than just 'Technical Writing' in college, and 2) I can take a day off. It's a win-win, or a win-Winn. Yeah, whatever.

    Over at ESPN, Andy Katz takes a nice stab at some championship week hype. But the discriminating mid-major connoisseur will be over at the midmajority over the next couple of weeks as Kyle documents all the mid-major tournaments in digest form and attends 32 games on his own. Methinks Kyle shouldn't be surprised if at some point during that time the Official WifeTM

    Read more...

    Minutia

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 2, 2005


    Slowest paced games this season by possesions per 40 minutes (score in parentheses)...

     1 46, 2/4 Princeton(42) at Dartmouth(50) 2 47, 11/20 Princeton(46) at Temple(48) 3 47, 11/15 Air Force(60) vs. Mississippi(36) 4 48, 12/8 Rutgers(40) at Princeton(53) 5 49, 1/31 UNLV(48) at Air Force(64) 

    Fastest paced games this season by possesions per 40 minutes...

     1 93, 1/22 North Carolina A&T(86) at Florida A&M(93) 2 92, 11/23 Mercer(67) at Maryland (93) 3 92, 1/8 Maryland(75) at North Carolina(109) 4 91, 12/24 Houston(63) at Washington(110) 5 89, 12/30 Quinnipiac(71) at Connecticut(123) 

    Best shooting games by a single team this season...

     1 80.0%, 1/24 Air Force(51) at Utah(63) 2 77.8%, 11/27 UC Davis(55) at Utah State(81) 3 69.2%, 2/5 Utah State(80) at UC Santa Barbara(50) 3 69.2%, 1/15 New Mexico(62) at Air Force(64) 5 68.6%, 12/30 Indiana State(69) at Drake(74) 

    Best rebounding games by…

    Read more...

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