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    The NRG effect

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, March 27, 2015


    [Note: This post has been updated with the games from a 2002 regular-season triple-header played at Reliant Stadium where teams shot reasonably well. Thanks to @botskey for the tip. NRG still seems hostile to shooters, but per David Worlock’s information, I’m still open to the possibility of randomness.]

    [Update 2: The 2002 games apparently had a more cozy configuration and may not be relevant to the shooting woes in more recent games.]

    After Friday’s action, there have been 15 college basketball games played in NRG neé Reliant Stadium since it opened in 2002. In those games, the 30 participating teams have made 178 of their 553 3-point attempts for a success rate of 32.2 percent. This could be the result of cataclysmic randomness, but if a team shot 32.2 percent over 30 games, you’d be pretty convinced they weren’t a very good shooting team. A team shooting like that this season would rank 260th in Division-I, and this includes six games using the shorter 3-point line.

    Read more...

    Jump ball data

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, March 26, 2015


    In responding to a request from the New York Times’ Marc Tracy, I determined how each team fared in jump balls this season. Kentucky is the best, which is detailed in Marc’s article, but you might be curious where other teams stand. That data is provided below.

    Keep in mind I did this by looking at which team had the first possession of the game or any overtime periods. Given the state of play-by-play, and the possibility that technical free throws precede the jump ball, the numbers may be slightly off in some cases.

    Read more...

    Sweet 16 log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, March 22, 2015


    Here’s the log5 for the sweet sixteen using ratings as of Monday morning…

    Read more...

    The 30-second shot clock is here

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 17, 2015


    And if the betting markets for the first night of the NIT are any indication, scoring will go up by about 7%. Here’s a comparison of my predicted total score, which doesn’t account for the 30-second shot clock and larger restricted area being used, and those provided at Pinnacle for the seven NIT games tonight.

    Read more...

    NCAA tournament log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, March 15, 2015


    Below is the outcome of applying the log5 equation to my ratings. All values represent the percent chance of a team advancing to a particular round based on this humble model. No injuries or personnel issues are taken into account and the current rating is considered to be the true reflection of each team’s strength. Each region is presented individually followed by the entire field. Let me know if you see any errors.

    Read more...

    Least likely conference tourney events

    With conference tournament season wrapping up today, let’s look back at the five least-likely events over the past two weeks. This is based on the log5 analyses produced for each tournament so I’m not looking at any in-game scenarios. (So you won’t see Albany, whose championship game comeback overcame a 3.4% chance of winning.)

    Read more...

    Ivy League log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, March 13, 2015


    During championship week, there’s lots of sympathy going around to teams that win their regular-season crown but fail to win the conference’s automatic bid. Some sympathy is deserved, but most of these teams are the big dog in their conference in terms of resources and tradition. Murray State and Iona will be back next season as their respective conference’s favorite and they’ll be in the mix to win the automatic bid. Sure, it sucks that this year’s seniors won’t be a part of that, but the fan base and the coaches will live to fight another day in the very near future.

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    WAC log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 11, 2015


    Last season, the WAC tournament featured a two-seed in New Mexico State that had greater than a 60 percent chance of winning the event. The Aggies are clearly the best team in the league again, but this season their record reflects it. They finished 13-1, five games clear of their nearest challengers.

    Read more...

    Big West log5

    Perhaps the biggest surprise in all of college hoops has been UC Davis’s rise to the top of the Big West standings. Jim Les’s squad didn’t play the most challenging of non-conference schedules, but nonetheless has lost just five games all season, including a 16-2 record in conference play. (Although one sage observer predicted the Aggies were “primed to improve considerably on a 9-22 mark”.)

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    Big Sky log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 10, 2015


    The Big Sky rewards its regular-season champ with hosting duties for the conference tourney. This season, the scramble for that very important distinction was pretty wild with four teams in the mix over the final two weeks. Montana improbably gave itself a shot at hosting by winning at Eastern Washington 77-76 on February 28. But they still needed Sacramento State to drop its final two games of the season, which is exactly what happened.

    Read more...

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