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    2014 NCAA tournament log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, March 17, 2014


    What follows is the master log5 for the 68-team field. At the risk of being lumped in with Rick Reilly, I will recycle the disclaimers from last year:

    - The calculations below represent the chance of each team advancing to a specific round based on the log5 formula and each team’s pythagorean rating. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

    - This does not necessarily represent Ken Pomeroy’s opinion. There are subjective factors which this analysis does not include. Please use it responsibly.

    - Don’t interpret these numbers as saying Ken Pomeroy’s computer is predicting Arizona will win the tournament. It’s saying there’s an 84% chance they won’t.

    - If you doubt that seeding doesn’t matter (much) check out how similar the order of these teams is to the team’s ranking in my system. Louisville doesn’t suffer much as a four-seed. However, it’s a different story if you have to play extra game like Tennessee.

    - No proximity bonus is included in any games here.

    Read more...

    Big West log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 12, 2014


    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Big West Conference
    Location: Anaheim, Ca. (Honda Center)
    Dates: March 13-15
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Alan Williams, UC Santa Barbara

    Projections:

                        Semis  Final  Champ
    1 UC Irvine          85.8   60.5   35.8
    2 UC Santa Barbara   80.8   56.8   32.9
    3 Long Beach St.     71.7   29.5   12.7
    4 Hawaii             69.3   27.9   12.3
    5 Cal St. Northridge 30.7    7.5    2.0
    7 Cal Poly           19.2    7.2    1.9
    6 Cal St. Fullerton  28.3    6.5    1.6
    8 UC Riverside       14.2    4.2    0.9
    
    

    Read more...

    WAC log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Western Athletic Conference
    Location: Las Vegas (Orleans Arena)
    Dates: March 13-15
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Daniel Mullings, New Mexico State

    Projections:

                     Semis  Final  Champ
    2 New Mexico St.  84.8   72.8   60.9
    1 Utah Valley     70.9   43.4   13.5
    6 CS Bakersfield  62.9   13.7    7.0
    5 Idaho           56.1   26.7    6.7
    4 UMKC            43.9   18.4    3.9
    7 Seattle         15.2    8.0    3.9
    3 Chicago St.     37.1    5.5    2.1
    8 UT Pan American 29.1   11.5    2.0
    

    Read more...

    Sun Belt log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Sun Belt Conference
    Location: New Orleans (Lakefront Arena)
    Dates: March 13-16
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Elfrid Payton, Louisiana-Lafayette

    Projections:

                   Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
    1 Georgia St.   100    100   77.0   56.5
    3 La. Lafayette 100   74.0   48.3   19.3
    2 W. Kentucky   100    100   41.1   11.1
    4 Arkansas St.  100   67.4   18.1    9.2
    6 UT Arlington 61.2   17.9    7.9    1.8
    8 Troy         51.0   16.8    2.6    0.9
    5 UALR         49.0   15.7    2.3    0.8
    7 La. Monroe   38.8    8.0    2.7    0.4
    

    Read more...

    Big Sky log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Big Sky Conference
    Location: Weber State
    Dates: March 13-15
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Davion Berry, Weber State

    Projections:

                   Semis  Final  Champ
    1 Weber St.      100   76.9   52.4
    4 Montana       61.3   31.3   13.7
    2 North Dakota  52.7   24.9    8.7
    6 N. Colorado   54.6   20.1    8.4
    3 N. Arizona    45.4   21.6    8.0
    5 Portland St.  38.7   15.7    5.5
    7 Sacramento St 47.3    9.6    3.3
    

    Read more...

    Big Ten log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Big Ten Conference
    Location: Indianapolis (Bankers Life Fieldhouse)
    Dates: March 13-16
    Chance of bid thief:
    Current kPOY: Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin

    Projections:

                    Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Michigan      100   72.6   45.1   25.4
     2 Wisconsin     100   73.7   40.4   22.1
     5 Ohio St.     82.2   55.2   28.9   15.1
     3 Michigan St.  100   55.9   29.3   15.0
     6 Iowa         86.2   42.3   21.8   10.9
     4 Nebraska      100   39.4   14.1    5.0
     8 Indiana      57.8   17.4    7.3    2.6
     7 Minnesota    58.9   17.1    5.7    1.9
     9 Illinois     42.2   10.1    3.5    1.0
    10 Penn St.     41.1    9.2    2.4    0.6
    12 Purdue       17.8    5.5    1.1    0.2
    11 Northwestern 13.8    1.8    0.3    0.05
    
    

    Read more...

    ACC log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 11, 2014


    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Atlantic Coast Conference
    Location: Greensboro, N.C. (Greensboro Coliseum)
    Dates: March 12-16
    Chance of bid thief: 6 percent
    Current kPOY: Jabari Parker, Duke

    Projections:

                      Rd1   Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Virginia       100    100   77.4   54.1   33.1
     3 Duke           100    100   80.2   49.5   26.9
     2 Syracuse       100    100   77.8   38.9   18.9
     4 North Carolina 100    100   55.3   20.7    8.6
     5 Pitt           100   78.2   39.8   15.2    6.5
     9 Florida St.    100   52.2   12.2    5.1    1.7
     6 Clemson        100   70.7   16.5    5.7    1.6
     8 Maryland       100   47.8   10.4    4.1    1.3
    10 Miami FL      80.0   43.7   10.8    2.8    0.7
     7 N.C. State     100   51.6   11.0    2.5    0.5
    13 Notre Dame    57.8   13.9    3.4    0.6    0.1
    11 Georgia Tech  56.0   17.6    2.2    0.4    0.07
    12 Wake Forest   42.2    7.9    1.5    0.2    0.03
    14 Boston Coll.  44.0   11.7    1.1    0.2    0.02
    15 Virginia Tech 20.0    4.6    0.4    0.03   0.002
    

    Read more...

    Big 12 log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Big 12 Conference
    Location: Kansas City (Sprint Center)
    Dates: March 12-15
    Chance of bid thief: 4 percent
    Current kPOY: Andrew Wiggins, Kansas

    Projections:

                  Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Kansas      100   74.2   56.3   43.0
     2 Oklahoma    100   56.7   34.6   13.2
     4 Iowa St.    100   58.1   18.8   10.2
     7 Baylor     91.3   42.7   24.7    8.7
     3 Texas       100   57.3   25.1    7.9
     8 Okla. St.  73.6   22.2   12.8    7.5
     5 Kansas St.  100   41.9   10.9    5.0
     6 W. Virginia 100   42.7   15.6    4.0
     9 Texas Tech 26.4    3.5    1.2    0.4
    10 TCU         8.7    0.7    0.08   0.004
    

    Read more...

    Mountain West log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Mountain West Conference
    Location: UNLV
    Dates: March 12-15
    Chance of bid thief: 29 percent
    Current kPOY: Xavier Thames, San Diego State

    Projections:

                    Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 San Diego St. 100   82.1   58.0   36.5
     2 New Mexico    100   81.4   62.1   34.6
     4 UNLV          100   73.7   29.9   14.6
     6 Boise St.    89.3   57.3   19.7    6.3
     3 Nevada        100   40.8    9.5    2.2
     7 Fresno St.   78.6   17.1    8.2    2.1
     5 Wyoming       100   26.3    6.6    2.1
     8 Utah St.     53.6   10.1    3.2    1.0
     9 Colorado St. 46.4    7.8    2.3    0.6
    10 Air Force    21.4    1.5    0.3    0.03
    11 San Jose St. 10.7    1.9    0.1    0.009
    

    Read more...

    Pac-12 log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Pac-12 Conference
    Location: Las Vegas (MGM Grand)
    Dates: March 12-15
    Chance of bid thief: 6 percent
    Current kPOY: Nick Johnson, Arizona

    Projections:

                  Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Arizona     100   81.0   69.9   54.4
     2 UCLA        100   54.5   30.5   10.7
     3 Arizona St. 100   58.2   27.2    8.7
     7 Oregon     76.5   39.7   23.0    8.4
     8 Utah       72.1   16.2   10.5    5.3
     6 Stanford   84.3   39.6   17.3    5.1
     4 California  100   52.5    9.5    3.4
     5 Colorado   76.2   41.1    8.4    3.3
     9 Washington 27.9    2.8    1.2    0.3
    10 Oregon St. 23.5    5.9    1.8    0.3
    12 USC        23.8    6.4    0.5    0.09
    11 Wash. St.  15.7    2.2    0.3    0.02
    
    

     

    Read more...

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