Six Who Might
11.10.04
Anyone who followed my blog last year knows that I became obsessed with two teams, Georgia Tech and Air Force. You see, I am a college basketball refugee. The schools I attended, Wyoming and Virginia Tech, rarely receive bubble status by February. This year is no different - Wyoming barely beat the Colorado School of Mines last night. At least Virginia Tech is headed in the right direction, but any finish better than 9th in the ACC would be a total shock. So I have to look elsewhere for the teams that are fighting for the postseason.
The common bond of the Jackets and Falcons last season was that they were completely overlooked before the season and ended up getting at-large berths to the NCAA tournament. Georgia Tech was picked 7th out of 9 in the ACC preseason media poll last year and Air Force was picked dead last in the MWC, almost unanimously. These are the stories that make college basketball great.
So who are the teams that could come out of nowhere this year? The surprise teams last year, when you throw in Washington, UAB, and DePaul, all had head coaches that were in their 2nd, 3rd or 4th year with their school. With that in mind, here are six teams that didn't get a vote in the preseason polls, but have the potential to sneak into the limelight.
1) TCU. They were wildly inconsistent last year, with some impressively big losses. CUSA is wide-open once you get past Louisville, Memphis, and Charlotte. So even though TCU was picked 9th by the media, it's hard for me to believe they won't improve on last season's finish. Barometer game: 11/28 vs. Florida State.
2) Villanova. The Cats shot the ball pretty well last year and got to the free throw line a lot, indicating they were difficult to defend. They will only get better with everyone returning. I'm not sure why they're not getting more attention. Barometer game: not applicable. 'Nova has a pathetic - and short - schedule before Big East play begins. They should enter 2005 at 8-0.
3) New Mexico. I've talked about New Mexico before. They bring all of their key players back and have a superstar in Danny Granger. They didn't win a single game away from the Pit last year. The Lobos are picked 4th in the MWC, but the top 3 have new coaches and aren't invincible. Barometer game: 11/22 at Oregon.
4) UCLA. Ben Howland has never wasted any time building a winner. Even with Cedric Bozeman out for the year, there's an infusion of Howland recruits that will give the Bruins a chance to compete with anyone in the Pac-10. Barometer game: 12/18 vs. Michigan.
5) West Virginia. This is more in the spirit of what Georgia Tech and Air Force did last year. Coach John Beilein showed some integrity when he booted leading scorer Drew Schifino off the team in the middle last season. Speculation was this would send the team into a tailspin, but the Mountaineers held things together and eventually won a couple of games in the NIT. WVU is picked for 9th by the Big East media, but brings all of their key players back. Barometer game: 11/27 at LSU.
6) Saint Mary's. They went 9-5 in the WCC but played more like 11-3. The Gaels start four seniors and a junior. Gonzaga is still the best team in the conference, but the WCC could emerge as a legitimate two-bid league. Barometer game: 11/12 2nd round of Coaches vs. Cancer, probably at Cal.
Go Pro, Young Man
11.08.04
The biggest news from the weekend was that UCLA senior point guard Cedric Bozeman blew out his knee and is lost for the year. It's bad news for coach Ben Howland because he had brought in freshman Jordan Farmer to be an understudy to Bozeman this year, then taking over the reigns as a sophomore when the team would finally be ready to challenge for a piece of the national spotlight again. Now Farmar is left to fend for himself. Bozeman plans to come back next year, but he will have to fight for his playing time.
Bozeman's predicament brought to mind the unexpected departure to the NBA of former teammate Trevor Ariza in the offseason. What if Ariza had given into the pressure of the pundits to return to UCLA, only to suffer the fate that Bozeman did? OK, that's not really fair, because Ariza could have suffered the same fate on his journey to the NBA. But this gives me an excuse to talk about Ariza's decision which was widely criticized last April. So far Ariza's decision has worked out great - he currently has a full-time gig with the Knicks. But even if he was playing for the Fayetteville Patriots, it wouldn't have necessarily been the wrong decision.
There are many pros and cons for going pro early. The standard litmus test on the early-entry decision is whether a player is ready is ready for the NBA. To me, the real question should be whether the person has a chance at the NBA. If the answer is yes, and if the player in question has no interest in schoolwork, then declaring early is the right decision. Even if Ariza had to endure the D-League or Europe this year, he would have been playing against better competition than he saw in the Pac-10, and he would have been able to focus on hoops as much as wanted, all while getting paid a decent salary.
So when the next crop of Trevor Arizas declares for the NBA draft this spring, consider that for a lot of guys, playing the next 2 or 3 years in basketball's minor leagues is better training to be an NBA player than the college option.
Singin’ the Blues
11.04.04
I know it's November 3rd, and I know that Northern Kentucky regularly churns out one of the best D2 teams in the country, but can't we read something into the fact that NKU made it close against #9 Kentucky for 27 minutes tonight?
It's ridiculous to read anything into an exhibition game, but it's not ridiculous to point out that losing an experienced backcourt is a recipe for failing to meet high expectations. NKU challenges Cincinnati on Monday and Ohio State on Tuesday. It will be interesting to see how those contests turn out.
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