More Linework
11.23.04
So as a follow up to my unsubstantiated claim last Friday that a team's volume of free throw attempts is more important than their free throw percentage, I decided to run some tests on last season's data. I took the top 30 and bottom 30 teams in various categories and computed their total winning percentage. In this very un-scientific method, the greater the difference between the winning percentage of the good teams and bad teams, the more important the statistic is.
So here's what I found:
Top 30 Win% Bottom 30 Win%
FT% .615 .408 (Difference = .207)
FTA/FGA .552 .355 (Difference = .197)
opponents' FTA/FGA .622 .382 (Difference = .240)
FTA/FGA difference .638 .356 (Difference = .272)
FT% = Free Throw Percentage (FTM/FTA)
FTA/FGA = this is basically the ability of a team to get to the line. You could use total free throws, or free throws per game, but this best accounts for how often a team gets to the line relative to it's own ability to get shots off.
opponents' FTA/FGA = the same as above but for a team's opponents.
FTA/FGA difference = the difference in the previous two statistics.
So anyway, as you can probably see from the numbers, I overstated the benefits of getting to the line somewhat. Getting to the line or preventing your opponent from getting there is roughly equal to or maybe slightly more important than shooting well from the line when you get there. But a large free throw differential (the last line above) between you and your opponent is clearly more important than just your own free throw percentage.
Same Ol’ Song
11.22.04
For those who got tired of hearing about how good the ACC was last season, early indications are that you'll get more of the same this year. With Virginia's 78-60 rout of Arizona on Sunday, you had a team that isn't expected to finish in the top five of the ACC beat a team that a few predicted to be one of the five best in the nation.
The big performance came from the Cavaliers' freshman point guard Sean Singletary (15 pts, 8 assists, 6 steals), who's making an early case that he's a significant upgrade at the position from the Todd Billet/TJ Bannister combo of last season. But the big story was how badly Arizona failed at scoring points.
Arguably the nation's best offensive unit last season, the Wildcats were held to their lowest single game total since December 2001, and have been held to less than 40% shooting in two of their first three games. Maybe replacing Andre Iguodala is not going to be so easy. After all, he was the seventh college player chosen in the NBA draft.
An Egg at the Line
11.19.04
NC State, who led the nation in free throw shooting at around 80% last season, has started out this year 20 for 34 (59%) from the line in two games. If State kept up this pace they would be vying for national basement honors by March. But even if that did happen, it shouldn't be much of a story since free throw percentage is not all that important to winning. Yes, that's correct. In the short term, fans get bent out of shape over a poor free throw shooting performance by its team. But the consistent long-term success of a team is more dependent on how many times you get to the line.
Most teams average around a point per possession, and shoot at least 60% from the line. So in the long run, any trips to the line for two will be more productive than running the regular offense, even on those squads full of free throw bricklayers. Don't get me wrong, shooting well from the line is better than shooting poorly. But not getting to the line very often is a drain on the offense no matter how well you shoot free throws. Equally important to this concept is preventing your opponent from getting a lot of free oppotunities. And finally, if you can do both of those things well - have a large free throw difference with respect to your opponents - your chances of winning regularly go up even more. When I get a chance, I'll post how teams that led these various categories last season fared in the win/loss columns.
On a related note, I can only pity the person who claims to be in the know that states that free throw shooting is so much poorer today than it was in the good ol' days. According to the NCAA Basketball Record Book, national free throw percentage in the 2003 season was 69.4%, a number exceeded only by two other seasons, 1979, and 1980. So despite the increasing restrictions on practice time in recent years and an alleged trend towards more 'street ball', free throw shooting is better than it was at any time in the '50s and '60s.
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