Assist Percentage
02.04.05
After thinking "outside the box" for last week's stat, I'm going to keep it basic this week and go with assist percentage, which is the percentage of field goals that are assisted on.
A% = assists/field goals made
The results (see the stats page) are a little surprising, given that "sharing the basketball" is always viewed as a good thing. With UNC (3rd) and Illinois (12th) near the top of A%, it's easy to think that this stat is a key to success, and I've heard that a lot lately. But Duke (299th), Texas (295th), and Villanova (308th) are among the worst teams at assisting, and all three sport very efficient offenses.
For the most part it appears that increased assist percentage correlates to a more efficient offense. But as is the case in college basketball, the exceptions are what spice things up. So I'd love to hear any possible explanations as to why a team can be very successful without a lot of helpers.
You'll also notice that the Basketball ShrinkTM is available for your use. For those who missed this post from earlier in the week, Basketball ShrinkTM is an affordable way for you to assess a team's personality. By clicking on a team of your choice, you'll get a listing of the most similar teams with respect to the three basic characteristics - tempo, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency, in the adjusted form of each stat.
For instance, click on Princeton and you get Princeton offspring Air Force and Northwestern as the two teams most analogous to the Tigers, based on their play this season.
Changing of the Guard
02.03.05
Tonight, Saint Mary's visits Gonzaga where the Zags will be looking to avenge an early January loss to the Gaels in Moraga. If Gonzaga loses tonight, they fall two games behind Saint Mary's in the WCC race. Gonzaga is a solid favorite to win, and they have been steady in the new Kennel this season. But with a loss, Gonzaga would be in serious danger of not winning the conference's regular season title for the first time since 2000. Both of these teams are heavily imbalanced, with Gonzaga winning with offense and Saint Mary's (winners of 13 out of 14) successful with defense. The first matchup was played under Gonzaga rules, with both teams shooting over 50%.
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The big news from yesterday was at Iowa, where Steve Alford and Pierre Pierce parted ways. Headlines today are some derivative of "Iowa's leading scorer Pierce booted off team." Conventional wisdom says Iowa will suffer tremendously. But with a modicum of analysis, it becomes apparent that Iowa will not be hurt much, if at all. (With the thorough analysis at Hawkeye Hoops, you should be convinced.)
What if the headlines said "Iowa's leading turnoverer Pierce booted off team." Other than the use of the made-up word "turnoverer", the first impression of that headline is that Iowa will be better off. When Pierre Pierce was on the floor, he committed a third of his team's turnovers. So while Pierce did score a lot of points, those points came at a great cost. Pierce spent a lot of possessions averaging 18 points a game.
This reminds me of last season's suspension of Drew Schifino by West Virginia coach John Beilein. Schifino was far and away the leading scorer on the Mountaineers, so when Schifino quit 11 games into the season, it was widely believed that 7-4 WVU would tank the rest of the season. However, the Mountaineers showed little change in their performance and went on to win two games in the NIT. Schifino was not the turnover-maven that Pierce is, but he was an unbelievable gunner. Schifino shot a lot, and he shot worse from two, three, and the free throw line than the rest of his team. So it was pretty easy for his teammates to pick up the slack after his departure. Pierce's shooting numbers are similar (he's slightly better from two than his teammates, but worse from three and on FTs) but with more turnovers. So don't write Iowa off yet.
Basketball ShrinkTM
02.02.05
Perhaps no team in major college basketball has changed its personality from last season as much as the Arizona Wildcats. Last season they were an up-tempo offensive machine, but prone to giving up too many easy baskets. This season, with Ivan Radenovic eating up a lot of the minutes vacated by NBA early-entry Andre Iguodala, the Wildcats are more controlled and efficient defensively, but prone to stretches where they have difficulty scoring.
We can get an idea of a team's personality by comparing their major stats (in adjusted form) - tempo, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency - to every other team in college basketball. Sum the percentage difference in each category and the resulting number is the similarity between two teams. The lower the number, the more similar two teams are. It's a device I'll call the Basketball ShrinkTM.
For instance, the Shrink says the following five teams turn out to be most similar to Arizona in 2004 and 2005:
2004 2005
Washington Iowa
Wake Forest Mississippi State
Wisconsin Milwaukee Cincinnati
North Carolina Texas Tech
UNLV Arizona State
Last season, Arizona was similar to Washington and Wake Forest, and this season they resemble Iowa and Mississippi State. The results from the two seasons have been fairly similar, with Arizona mainly beating teams you would expect them to beat, but not able to pull off that big win that propels them into the national spotlight.
Let's get the Basketball ShrinkTM to give us a diagnosis on a few other interesting hoops characters. The biggest headcase in the game may be Maryland. Get smoked by NC State at home, then win at Cameron Indoor. Take care of Georgia Tech at home, then get trashed at Clemson. Who is Maryland most similar to?
Connecticut Iowa Texas Tech Mississippi State George Washington
Maryland keeps some of the same company as Arizona. The Terps and UConn share not only a penchant for up-tempo basketball, but they've both failed badly to meet pre-season expectations.
Now let's look at a team that is a mystery to everyone - Vermont. The Catamounts sport a lofty #19 ranking in the RPI thanks to a new formula that treats a road victory like a win over a top ten team. Shrink, what do you say?
Boston College Boston University Pittsburgh Notre Dame South Carolina
UVM is a small conference team that has a big conference personality. You like BC? Then you should like Vermont. Vermont is a team with only two top 100 RPI wins so far, so their margin for error in the at-large chase is slim. The Bracket Buster game with Nevada will have a lot riding on it. If they get blown out, then their at-large chances are probably shot. They will be considered a heavy favorite to win the America East Tournament. But with conference-mate Boston U. ranking #2 in similarity to Vermont, a win over BU in the AE championship shouldn't be taken for granted, even in Burlington.
On Friday, I plan to make Basketball ShrinkTM available on the stats page. Then you can schedule an appointment for your favorite team to get a check-up from the neck up.
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