The Year of the Mid Major
02.17.05
You're starting to hear it more and more. Oh, how those power conferences have really fallen. Finally, the little guy will get his revenge. The Chinese recently celebrated the Year of the Rooster and college hoops observers are starting to hail the Year of the Catamounts, Salukis, and Monarchs.
These statements have been driven in large part by the RPI - an RPI that changed its formula this season. Hey look, Vermont is in the top 20! Pacific is in the top 25! Hoo-rah! The RPI now favors teams from outside the power conferences, that should be obvious. But measuring teams by a new formula is akin to someone measuring themselves in pounds one day and kilograms the next and concluding that their diet is really working.
In a sense, it doesn't matter whether the power conferences are really worse this year, they are going to be less represented in the NCAA Tournament. But the top six conferences aren't suddenly having their worst season in recent memory. Sure the SEC is down. But the Big East is equally better. The ACC is a little worse, but the Pac 10 has rebounded slightly.
To fairly compare activity over the last two seasons, use a formula that has been the same over that time. You can use whatever system you want and you'll find out there really is no change. Naturally, I will pimp my own system for this exercise. All data is through Tuesday's games.
Top 50 Teams (Pomeroy Ratings)
2005 2004
ACC 6 7
SEC 7 6
Big XII 6 6
Big Ten 6 4
Big East 6 8
Pac 10 3 2
Total 34 33
The non-conference records of the six conferences collectively (D1 opponents only):
2005: 593-187, .760 2004: 562-186, .751
No-Hitters
02.15.05
When you don't have anything to say, let the readers say it for you...
Ken,
Just saw your column commenting on Seth Davis saying Illinois "needed" a loss. Someone should ask Seth how teams with 1 loss have won since undefeated IU. Based on the teams I read about in the Final Four program in '97 and the fact that there have been none since then, I'd say not well. So I guess you need 2 losses.
Alan
This is so very true. Folks are obsessed with going unbeaten, but there hasn't been a one-loss champion since '76, either. There have been 17 teams to enter the dance with one loss from '77 to '04, and all of them came up short. Only three went so far as the Final Four, and only '99 Duke made it to the finals. So the evidence would seem to point against the utility of a late-season loss for the Illini.
Ken,
On Saturday the Dayton Flyers played the LaSalle Explorers and Dayton did not attempt a single foul shot. Despite not attempting a free throw, Dayton won the game. I can not remember a game where this has happened before and I remember you (I think) writing an article on how the importance of foul shots can be over emphasized.
So here are my questions.
How often does a game take place and one team does not attempt a single foul shot?
Thank you, I really enjoy your site.
Mike
College hoops version of the no-hitter doesn't happen very often. Over the past two seasons, there have been only four instances of a team not shooting any free throws (team with no free throws in bold).
12/04/03, Central Florida @ Florida, Result: Florida 58-38 2/28/04, Michigan State @ Penn State, Result: MSU 67-42 11/26/04, Charleston Southern @ Notre Dame, Result: ND 54-38 2/12/05, Dayton @ LaSalle, Result: Dayton 56-45
In what surely must be a coincidence, and not related to any type of shady referee compensation program, the road team is the one that didn't get to the line in all four cases.
Bubble Wrap
Begrudgingly, I submit my look at the at-large picture. In my patented piecemeal approach, I am adding bubble teams this week. This is probably more for my benefit than yours, so if you think I've missed something - maybe I have! Drop me a line to let me know.
I've had to ax three teams from the lock list I produced last week.
Texas - The reasons for the removal of Texas from this list were given last week in this space. Texas is still limping badly, evidenced by an overtime home win against Kansas State last Saturday, when the Longhorns went 11 for 20 from three. They are totally at the mercy of bombs and excellent defense from here on out.
Minnesota - Individually, a home loss to Northwestern or a road loss to Indiana are not back-breakers. But together they hurt a lot, especially since the Indiana loss was lopsided. I still think the Gophers will get a bid, but they need to do some work.
Stanford - Their profile looks great, but with the season-ending injury to leading scorer (and third-leading rebounder) Dan Grunfeld, who knows if the new version of the Cardinal will be at-large worthy? I'm guessing not. Jason Haas will move into the starting point guard role and Chris Hernandez will fill in for Grunfeld at the two. They lose a lot of size with that change, and Haas is not much of an offensive presence.
I've also had to turn the other cheek to keep Georgia Tech on this list. Ultimately, they will get enough done to get in.
The additions are Maryland, DePaul and Florida.
ACC - UNC, Wake, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland
Pac 10 - Washington, Arizona, UCLA
Big East - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, UConn, Villanova
Big XII - Kansas, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Big Ten - Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan St.
SEC - Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi St., Florida
WCC - Gonzaga
MVC - Southern Illinois, Wichita St.
CUSA - Louisville, Cincinnati, Charlotte, DePaul
MWC - Utah
And now for the rest of the teams with a legitimate chance to play their way into an at-large bid. The principle here is similar to the locks - I am not listing every team with a glimmer of hope of getting a bid. I'm listing the teams I feel have the ability to play their way in. So that means while Indiana has a shot if they go something like 5-1 down the stretch, I don't think they will, especially with Bracey Wright coming back.
(Speaking of Indiana, I'm starting to buy the whole "woe is me" act from Mike Davis. Have you seen what opponents are shooting from the free throw line against the Hoosiers? 75%!! That's the second best opponents FT% of any team in the nation.)
ACC - Miami
Pac 10 - Arizona St., Stanford
Big East - Notre Dame, Georgetown
Big XII - Texas, Iowa St.
Big Ten - Minnesota, Iowa
SEC - LSU
WCC - (none)
MVC - (none)
CUSA - Memphis, UAB, Marquette
MWC - (none)
Atlantic 10 - George Washington
MAC - Miami, Kent St.
America East - Vermont
WAC - Nevada
Big West - Pacific
CAA - Old Dominion
Exhibits A and B for why tourney projections are nearly pointless this far out are the Big East and Conference USA. It is really difficult to separate teams three through seven in the Big East. I just think UConn and Villanova are better teams than Notre Dame and Georgetown, but based on their resumes, any of them should get in with nine conference wins.
Of the CUSA bubble teams, Marquette is the team with the best chance now that Travis Diener is back. It's between him, Diogu, and Coppenrath, for the single most important player to any team in the nation.
There are 52 teams and 16 conferences listed. So 36 of these teams are vying for the 34 at-large bids, assuming no upsets in conference tournaments, and you can count on at least two of those. So at least two of the above teams will not get a bid. But this list will change quite a bit from week to week, as a few teams that I'm not giving any chance pull off surprises.
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