Wacked Out Wednesday
02.24.05
I've had a love-hate relationship with West Virginia all season. More like a love-ignore relationship. I forecasted good things for them before the season. I founded the D'Or Fischer fan club after the 10-0 start. Then I sheepishly had to abandon the Mountaineers (and the game diary concept) after it became apparent they were a team that relied on the jump shot, but didn't have enough guys who could make one.
The Mountaineers came back from the dead on Wednesday - both in the game they played and for the season. They overcame a 14-point deficit with ten minutes left to win at #18 Pittsburgh. Simultaneously, nearly every other bubble team in action lost - and a few of them suffered crippling defeats that should forever take them out of the at-large discussion.
Miami of Ohio, Georgia Tech, Old Dominion, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, George Washington, Memphis, and Iowa - all teams with at-large aspirations Wednesday morning - were losers. Only the first two on that list have serious thoughts of an at-large bid now.
And now so does West Virginia, even with a loss to 5-19 Marshall blighting the tournament application. WVU, winners of five of their last six, finishes at home against Rutgers (a nine point winner over Arkansas Monticello last night) and at Seton Hall. They should be favored in both. If they win those two, a 9-7 Big East record with non-conference road wins over LSU and NC State should be enough.
With 6'11" marksman Kevin Pittsnogle on fire (interesting coincidence: Pittsnogle is Latin for "one who leads his team to victories over Pitt." He scored 49 points in the season sweep of the Panthers), maybe WVU can salvage a bid.
Coach of the Year…Again?
02.23.05
What do you do when the national coach of the year does a better coaching job the next season? Well, you don't make him coach of the year, that we know. It's just not possible. But there are certain honors one can receive that exceed what any group of sportswriters can bestow. One of those is being the recipient of a John Chaney temper tantrum.
After cruising to a 63-56 win at Temple's Liacouras Center, Saint Joseph's sports a lofty 12-1 record in conference play. The Hawks are in position to make a run at a dance bid by winning what could be a winner-take-all A-10 Tournament. Not bad for a team that started 3-6. (Memo to coaches who avoid scheduling challenging games in November and December to "build confidence": Apparently it is possible to suffer non-conference losses without killing one's confidence.)
So how has Martelli done it this season? Ask Temple coach John Chaney, and it's the mastery of illegal screens. Chaney lost his composure last night (story) over what he viewed as shady play by the Hawks. It wasn't quite to the level of threatening to kill his coaching counterpart as he did to John Calipari 11 years ago, but it was close.
The Temple coach inserted benchwarmer Nehemiah Ingram into the game in the second half to rough up some of the Hawks for their dirty tactics - Ingram fouled out in four minutes and nearly incited a riot. Later, Chaney berated the conference commissioner and requested to never see Final Four official Jim Burr again.
It's probably the best honor Martelli will get this season.
[Update...Chaney has suspended himself for the Owls next game against UMass]
Bubble Wrap
02.22.05
Half-heartedly, I provide another look at the bubble. I'm getting the impression that folks out there care as little as I do. Last week I left Saint Mary's off the bubble list and received no complaints, despite the fact that nearly every other projection has them in.
The Gaels have two top 100 wins to go with five losses outside the top 100, and there aren't any more good wins to be had before a possible date with Gonzaga in the WCC championship. It's an ugly portfolio, but I suppose being the second place team in the seventh best conference will count for something.
I've dropped one team from the lock list I produced last week:
Wichita State - suffered their third loss in a row by losing at Miami Ohio on Saturday. None of the three losses are horrible, but collectively they mean WSU must win this Saturday at Southern Illinois if they plan to make an early exit from Arch Madness.
Once again, Georgia Tech stays on this list against my better judgment. On Saturday, they needed a friendly call to win at Florida State.
The additions are Iowa State, Texas, LSU, Nevada, and Pacific. The Big XII and ACC contingents are booked.
ACC - UNC, Wake, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland
Pac 10 - Washington, Arizona, UCLA
Big East - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, UConn, Villanova
Big XII - Kansas, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Texas
Big Ten - Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan St.
SEC - Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi St., Florida, LSU
WCC - Gonzaga
MVC - Southern Illinois
CUSA - Louisville, Cincinnati, Charlotte, DePaul
MWC - Utah
WAC - Nevada
Big West - Pacific
And now for the rest of the teams with a legitimate chance to play their way into an at-large bid. The principle here is similar to the locks - I am not listing every team with a glimmer of hope of getting a bid. I'm listing the teams I feel have the ability to play their way in with a minimum degree of competence.
Teams dropped from last week - UAB (home loss to East Carolina, ugh!),
Pac 10
Stanford - on the cusp of lock-land. Win one on the Oregon/Oregon State trip this week and they'll get promoted.
Arizona State - needs a split on the UW/WSU trip this week and I'm not sure they have it in them.
Big East
Notre Dame - ready to promote them to a lock, but a four game losing streak to finish the season is not out of the question. Coupled with only one non-conference win in the top 130, and I have to continue a wait-and-see approach.
Georgetown - Not competitive in a loss at St. John's. Could be the quintessential bubble team this year. Can hang their hat on road wins against Pitt and Villanova, but probably need to win one of their last three and another one at MSG.
Big Ten
Minnesota - Three more wins and they should be safe. Can't take them for granted with this bunch, though.
Iowa - Awful 4-8 Big Ten record, but a bevy of quality non-conference wins keeps them in the hunt.
Indiana - Reluctantly, the Hoosiers have been added to the bubble list. A 3-1 finish would make them look very good. The committee would have to like their brutal non-conference schedule.
SEC
South Carolina, Vanderbilt - hot finish required by both to get in.
WCC
Saint Mary's - Last two regular-season games are at San Fran and San Diego. Win those and get to the WCC championship and they are probably get in.
MVC
Wichita State - with three remaining regular season games against top 100 teams, the Shockers control their own destiny.
CUSA
Memphis - we can get serious about Memphis (RPI 108) if they win at Charlotte on Wednesday.
Marquette - The game at Cincinnati on Thursday is huge. The Golden Eagles are probably out if they can't win at the Shoe.
Atlantic 10
George Washington - GW has won five in a row and has a couple of great non-conference wins over Michigan State and Maryland. But they are sitting two games behind 11-1 Saint Joe's in conference record, so they need to keep winning and must beat the Hawks on March 1 in DC.
MAC
Miami - I really wanted to bump them to a lock, but there are enough trap games left that I'll wait another week.
America East
Vermont - Also tempted to boost to a lock. Their RPI can't fall below 25 unless they lose again in the regular season and in the first round of the AE tournament.
CAA
Old Dominion - really hurt by Kent State's slide because that was previously their only top 50 win. Probably has to win CAA championship, but may get an at-large with a CAA championship loss and poor play from mid-level power conference teams.
If you do the math, counting automatic bids, at least four of the teams mentioned above will not get it.
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