by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, March 22, 2015
Here’s the log5 for the sweet sixteen using ratings as of Monday morning…
by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 17, 2015
And if the betting markets for the first night of the NIT are any indication, scoring will go up by about 7%. Here’s a comparison of my predicted total score, which doesn’t account for the 30-second shot clock and larger restricted area being used, and those provided at Pinnacle for the seven NIT games tonight.
by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, March 15, 2015
Below is the outcome of applying the log5 equation to my ratings. All values represent the percent chance of a team advancing to a particular round based on this humble model. No injuries or personnel issues are taken into account and the current rating is considered to be the true reflection of each team’s strength. Each region is presented individually followed by the entire field. Let me know if you see any errors.
With conference tournament season wrapping up today, let’s look back at the five least-likely events over the past two weeks. This is based on the log5 analyses produced for each tournament so I’m not looking at any in-game scenarios. (So you won’t see Albany, whose championship game comeback overcame a 3.4% chance of winning.)
by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, March 13, 2015
During championship week, there’s lots of sympathy going around to teams that win their regular-season crown but fail to win the conference’s automatic bid. Some sympathy is deserved, but most of these teams are the big dog in their conference in terms of resources and tradition. Murray State and Iona will be back next season as their respective conference’s favorite and they’ll be in the mix to win the automatic bid. Sure, it sucks that this year’s seniors won’t be a part of that, but the fan base and the coaches will live to fight another day in the very near future.
by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Last season, the WAC tournament featured a two-seed in New Mexico State that had greater than a 60 percent chance of winning the event. The Aggies are clearly the best team in the league again, but this season their record reflects it. They finished 13-1, five games clear of their nearest challengers.
Perhaps the biggest surprise in all of college hoops has been UC Davis’s rise to the top of the Big West standings. Jim Les’s squad didn’t play the most challenging of non-conference schedules, but nonetheless has lost just five games all season, including a 16-2 record in conference play. (Although one sage observer predicted the Aggies were “primed to improve considerably on a 9-22 mark”.)
by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 10, 2015
The Big Sky rewards its regular-season champ with hosting duties for the conference tourney. This season, the scramble for that very important distinction was pretty wild with four teams in the mix over the final two weeks. Montana improbably gave itself a shot at hosting by winning at Eastern Washington 77-76 on February 28. But they still needed Sacramento State to drop its final two games of the season, which is exactly what happened.
SMU and Cincinnati are safely in the field, but Temple is teetering on the edge, perhaps needing an opening-game win over Memphis (or more) to feel safe. And Tulsa’s got some work to do. The Golden Hurricane finished second in the conference on the strength of an unlikely 10-0 start in AAC play. Among those wins was a close call on the road against lowly UCF and an overtime win at home against a USF team that has a 1-in-23,426 chance of winning this tournament.
The Sun Belt employs the double stepladder format which gives the top two seeds a bye to semifinals. The favorite here is Georgia State, who is led by their junior wing, R.J. Hunter. Georgia State was preseason #66 and there was some anticipation that the Panthers could have a special season with Hunter’s leadership. They currently sit at #71 and the won the Sun Belt regular season title, so it’s not like the season was a disappointment in any sense. But they haven’t put together a profile that makes you feel good about getting a win or two in the NCAA tournament.