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  • Draw trumps seeding
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    This was the best year in history for free-throw shooting

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 25, 2014


    I’ve tweeted about this a couple times, but it’s worth documenting in a more permanent location: This season, free throws were shot at a better rate than in any previous season in the history of college basketball. To date, my calculations indicate that D-I teams have made 69.82 percent of their attempts from the free throw line. According to the NCAA record book, the previous best was the 69.7 percent made in the 1979 season.

    It’s an odd phenomenon, but analysts, journalists, and coaches appear to be programmed to bash fundamentals. That’s another subject deserving of its own article, but criticizing modern free-throw shooting has always been a dubious exercise within that realm. After all, that’s one fundamental we can measure, and free-throw percentage has essentially been constant for the last 50 years.

    But my perception is that most people in the game feel like free-throw shooting was better way back when. And if people can’t get that right, one should be skeptical when other fundamentals are criticized. Are players really worse at setting screens, or scoring with their off hand than they were 30 years ago?  I think it’s reasonable to wonder whether we’ve been lied to all along about those things as well.

    Read more...

    Sweet 16 log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, March 23, 2014


    Here’s the log5 for the Sweet 16…

                     Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in   Pvs
     1S  Florida      70.8%  58.9%  38.5%  22.6%   4   12.9%
     1W  Arizona      72.6   50.7   30.2   18.0    6   15.9
     4MW Louisville   69.8   46.6   27.9   16.6    6   12.3
     1E  Virginia     63.0   43.3   24.0   12.6    8   11.5
    11MW Tennessee    54.4   22.4   10.1    4.6   22    0.9
     2W  Wisconsin    58.3   23.0    9.8    4.2   24    2.3
     4E  Michigan St. 37.0   20.9    9.1    3.6   28    2.4
     4S  UCLA         29.2   19.5    8.7    3.3   31    1.3
     2MW Michigan     45.6   16.9    6.9    2.8   35    2.1
     3E  Iowa St.     50.1   17.9    6.8    2.3   43    1.0
     7E  UConn        49.9   17.9    6.8    2.3   44    0.7
     8MW Kentucky     30.2   14.1    5.7    2.3   44    0.7
     4W  San Diego St 27.4   12.9    4.7    1.7   57    1.0
     6W  Baylor       41.7   13.4    4.7    1.7   60    0.4
    10S  Stanford     56.1   13.1    4.0    1.0   99    0.1
    11S  Dayton       43.9    8.5    2.2    0.5  217    0.07
    

     

    Read more...

    Draw trumps seeding

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 19, 2014


    Given Wichita State’s challenging draw, I thought I’d calculate the chances of the Shockers winning the tournament if they were given other seeds in other regions. Keep in mind their current situation gives them an 8.0% chance to win the title*.

    Wichita State got the one-seed is in the Midwest region. What if the Shockers were seeded worse in the Midwest? Here are their log5-style chances of winning six games given a different location in the bracket:

    2-seed 9.0%
    3-seed 7.8%
    4-seed 8.1%

    Read more...

    2014 NCAA tournament log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, March 17, 2014


    What follows is the master log5 for the 68-team field. At the risk of being lumped in with Rick Reilly, I will recycle the disclaimers from last year:

    - The calculations below represent the chance of each team advancing to a specific round based on the log5 formula and each team’s pythagorean rating. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

    - This does not necessarily represent Ken Pomeroy’s opinion. There are subjective factors which this analysis does not include. Please use it responsibly.

    - Don’t interpret these numbers as saying Ken Pomeroy’s computer is predicting Arizona will win the tournament. It’s saying there’s an 84% chance they won’t.

    - If you doubt that seeding doesn’t matter (much) check out how similar the order of these teams is to the team’s ranking in my system. Louisville doesn’t suffer much as a four-seed. However, it’s a different story if you have to play extra game like Tennessee.

    - No proximity bonus is included in any games here.

    Read more...

    Big West log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 12, 2014


    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Big West Conference
    Location: Anaheim, Ca. (Honda Center)
    Dates: March 13-15
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Alan Williams, UC Santa Barbara

    Projections:

                        Semis  Final  Champ
    1 UC Irvine          85.8   60.5   35.8
    2 UC Santa Barbara   80.8   56.8   32.9
    3 Long Beach St.     71.7   29.5   12.7
    4 Hawaii             69.3   27.9   12.3
    5 Cal St. Northridge 30.7    7.5    2.0
    7 Cal Poly           19.2    7.2    1.9
    6 Cal St. Fullerton  28.3    6.5    1.6
    8 UC Riverside       14.2    4.2    0.9
    
    

    Read more...

    WAC log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Western Athletic Conference
    Location: Las Vegas (Orleans Arena)
    Dates: March 13-15
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Daniel Mullings, New Mexico State

    Projections:

                     Semis  Final  Champ
    2 New Mexico St.  84.8   72.8   60.9
    1 Utah Valley     70.9   43.4   13.5
    6 CS Bakersfield  62.9   13.7    7.0
    5 Idaho           56.1   26.7    6.7
    4 UMKC            43.9   18.4    3.9
    7 Seattle         15.2    8.0    3.9
    3 Chicago St.     37.1    5.5    2.1
    8 UT Pan American 29.1   11.5    2.0
    

    Read more...

    Sun Belt log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Sun Belt Conference
    Location: New Orleans (Lakefront Arena)
    Dates: March 13-16
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Elfrid Payton, Louisiana-Lafayette

    Projections:

                   Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
    1 Georgia St.   100    100   77.0   56.5
    3 La. Lafayette 100   74.0   48.3   19.3
    2 W. Kentucky   100    100   41.1   11.1
    4 Arkansas St.  100   67.4   18.1    9.2
    6 UT Arlington 61.2   17.9    7.9    1.8
    8 Troy         51.0   16.8    2.6    0.9
    5 UALR         49.0   15.7    2.3    0.8
    7 La. Monroe   38.8    8.0    2.7    0.4
    

    Read more...

    Big Sky log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Big Sky Conference
    Location: Weber State
    Dates: March 13-15
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Davion Berry, Weber State

    Projections:

                   Semis  Final  Champ
    1 Weber St.      100   76.9   52.4
    4 Montana       61.3   31.3   13.7
    2 North Dakota  52.7   24.9    8.7
    6 N. Colorado   54.6   20.1    8.4
    3 N. Arizona    45.4   21.6    8.0
    5 Portland St.  38.7   15.7    5.5
    7 Sacramento St 47.3    9.6    3.3
    

    Read more...

    Big Ten log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Big Ten Conference
    Location: Indianapolis (Bankers Life Fieldhouse)
    Dates: March 13-16
    Chance of bid thief:
    Current kPOY: Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin

    Projections:

                    Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Michigan      100   72.6   45.1   25.4
     2 Wisconsin     100   73.7   40.4   22.1
     5 Ohio St.     82.2   55.2   28.9   15.1
     3 Michigan St.  100   55.9   29.3   15.0
     6 Iowa         86.2   42.3   21.8   10.9
     4 Nebraska      100   39.4   14.1    5.0
     8 Indiana      57.8   17.4    7.3    2.6
     7 Minnesota    58.9   17.1    5.7    1.9
     9 Illinois     42.2   10.1    3.5    1.0
    10 Penn St.     41.1    9.2    2.4    0.6
    12 Purdue       17.8    5.5    1.1    0.2
    11 Northwestern 13.8    1.8    0.3    0.05
    
    

    Read more...

    ACC log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 11, 2014


    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Atlantic Coast Conference
    Location: Greensboro, N.C. (Greensboro Coliseum)
    Dates: March 12-16
    Chance of bid thief: 6 percent
    Current kPOY: Jabari Parker, Duke

    Projections:

                      Rd1   Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Virginia       100    100   77.4   54.1   33.1
     3 Duke           100    100   80.2   49.5   26.9
     2 Syracuse       100    100   77.8   38.9   18.9
     4 North Carolina 100    100   55.3   20.7    8.6
     5 Pitt           100   78.2   39.8   15.2    6.5
     9 Florida St.    100   52.2   12.2    5.1    1.7
     6 Clemson        100   70.7   16.5    5.7    1.6
     8 Maryland       100   47.8   10.4    4.1    1.3
    10 Miami FL      80.0   43.7   10.8    2.8    0.7
     7 N.C. State     100   51.6   11.0    2.5    0.5
    13 Notre Dame    57.8   13.9    3.4    0.6    0.1
    11 Georgia Tech  56.0   17.6    2.2    0.4    0.07
    12 Wake Forest   42.2    7.9    1.5    0.2    0.03
    14 Boston Coll.  44.0   11.7    1.1    0.2    0.02
    15 Virginia Tech 20.0    4.6    0.4    0.03   0.002
    

    Read more...

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