2012 conference previews, the last
12.30.11
This is the final installment of the Monte Carlo style conference previews. The following six conferences are the most up for grabs. I am writing this while listening to a live stream of the South Carolina State/Hawaii game which tipped at approximately 1:45 AM ET, which is to say I was barely conscious and that is reflected in the quality of this post. Games played on Thursday night are not included in the calculations, but I hope you enjoy them anyway. Sometime in February, I’ll do a review of the predictions and perhaps we’ll all share a hearty laugh.
6. NEC (Predicted champ: Robert Morris, 46%)
Oh, admit it, you thought you’d see Wagner as the favorite here. (Or just admit you haven’t given two thoughts about the NEC race.) Wagner is actually rated better than RMU but currently trails the Colonials by a game in the conference race. In addition, the teams only meet once in conference play which works against the Seahawks chance of overtaking Robert Morris.
Robert Morris 4576 Wagner 4392 Long Island 728 C. Connecticut 177 Quinnipiac 86 Sacred Heart 35 St. Francis NY 4 St. Francis PA 1
5. West Coast (BYU, 39%)
This doesn’t include the Gaels’ impressive statement last night in pummeling BYU. Saint Mary’s was expected to win, but the nature of the victory surely levels the odds of the top three teams, who combined have a 99.98% chance of winning the uber top-heavy WCC.
BYU 3931 Gonzaga 3275 St. Mary's 2792 San Francisco 2 Loyola Marymount 0
4. Big Sky (Weber State, 37%)
I’m surprised to see that UNC has a legit chance to take the Big Sky considering they’re one of the youngest teams in the country, and they lost to an NAIA school by 13. They have a slew of competitive losses to quality opponents, though.
Weber St. 3671 Montana 3059 E. Washington 2010 N. Colorado 1119 Portland St. 136 Sacramento St. 4 N. Arizona 0
3. America East (Vermont, 35%)
I’m rooting for Maine, just because I can. But also because they’ve never been to the NCAA tournament. That is true of Northwestern, of course, but you know about them, and they play on TV. Maine is never on national TV and basically nobody outside of Maine cares about them. They have one of the best freshmen in the country in Justin Edwards, and he’s so good he’ll probably transfer soon and eventually play in a Final Four like one-time Maine freshman Rick Carlisle did in the early ‘80s. But maybe Edwards can help the Black Bears end seven decades of frustration this year.
Vermont 3484 Stony Brook 2138 Maine 1663 Albany 1565 Boston U. 776 New Hampshire 374
2. Big 12 (Kansas, 33%)
Much like with the NEC, I don’t think too many people expected Kansas to be the favorite here, what with the loss to Davidson. But the Big 12 is clearly the conference race most up for grabs. Not only do you have the trio of conference power brokers, but Kansas State and Texas have reasonable possibilities here as well.
Kansas 3312 Missouri 3263 Baylor 2086 Texas 723 Kansas St. 567 Oklahoma 31 Oklahoma St. 11 Texas A&M 4 Iowa St. 3
1. WAC (New Mexico St., 32%)
New Mexico State’s humiliation at the hands of New Mexico on Wednesday continued a rough non-conference performance for the WAC. The benefit here is that the conference race is wide open.
New Mexico St. 3195 Utah St. 2881 Nevada 2195 Idaho 1466 Fresno St. 226 Hawaii 33 Louisiana Tech 4 San Jose St. 0
2012 conference previews, part 4
12.29.11
The is the penultimate look at the 32 Monte Carlo simulations performed on each Division I conference regular season race. This will leave us with the six remaining conferences where the favorite has less than a 50/50 chance of winning its league. For those needing further explanation of what they are about to read, please consult Monday’s post, then follow up with Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s action. Please note, and I will remind you repeatedly below, that the following numbers were based on calculations that didn’t include last night’s games.
18. Missouri Valley (Wichita State, 58%)
I must admit an error in omitting the Valley from yesterday’s post. This tally doesn’t include the results from last night, but you can see why Missouri State’s upset at Creighton should make Shocker fans happy.
Wichita St. 5751 Creighton 2300 Northern Iowa 1343 Missouri St. 321 Indiana St. 175 Illinois St. 108 Drake 1 Bradley 0
12. Southland (Lamar, 53%)
Pat Knight’s done a fine job in his first season at Lamar, but he did inherit the most experienced team in the country. The Cardinals are one of the few teams that start five seniors.
Lamar 5259 Texas Arlington 2411 Texas San Antonio 2085 Stephen F. Austin 131 Northwestern St. 69 SE Louisiana 20 McNeese St. 15 Texas St. 7 Sam Houston St. 1 TAMU Corpus Christi 1
11. MEAC (Morgan State, 52%)
Coach Boze is at it again. Even with a 2-8 record, Morgan is a favorite over Norfolk State. What’s noteworthy here is that both teams are currently in the top 200. The MEAC hasn’t had multiple teams finish in the top 200 since I started tracking these kinds of things.
Morgan St. 5158 Norfolk St. 1903 NC Central 1068 Coppin St. 857 Savannah St. 597 Bethune Cookman 190 Hampton 169 Delaware St. 40 North Carolina A&T 11 Howard 8 South Carolina St. 0
10. Summit (Oral Roberts, 51%)
All three of the favorites here won in conference play last night, the Dakota brethren by a combined 63 points. So game on. These calculations do not include those results so it’s worth noting that North Dakota State’s win was over previously 2-0 Oakland.
Oral Roberts 5078 South Dakota St. 3150 North Dakota St. 1321 Oakland 431 IUPUI 11 Western Illinois 8 UMKC 1 Southern Utah 0
9. SWAC (Mississippi Valley St., 51%)
The Delta Devils have as many wins in regulation as national laughingstock Grambling (zero), and yet they are the favorite to win the SWAC. But when all the teams in the conference are taking repeated beatings from power conference teams on the road, it’s tough to put a lot of faith in these calculations.
Miss. Valley St. 5050 Jackson St. 1319 Texas Southern 949 Alabama A&M 791 Prairie View A&M 752 Ark. Pine Bluff 568 Alabama St. 356 Southern 148 Alcorn St. 67
8. Conference USA (Memphis, 50%)
Well, the doubters have been proven wrong: Memphis is better than last season. But not so much better than they are a lock to win CUSA. Marshall is a legitimate threat and Southern Miss’s chances are understated considering Darnell Dodson appears to be an impact addition after having been reinstated to the team two weeks ago.
Memphis 5012 Marshall 3094 Southern Miss 917 Tulane 361 Tulsa 223 UTEP 126 Central Florida 99 Rice 63 East Carolina 51 Houston 42 UAB 10 SMU 3
7. Horizon (Cleveland State, 50%)
No Norris Cole? No problem. Well, it’s been a slight problem because Cleveland State’s offense has been dreadful and that’s why, despite an 11-2 start that has included wins at Vanderbilt and Kent State, the Vikings are giving only a slightly better chance than Milwaukee of snagging the top seed in the Horizon.
Cleveland St. 4977 Milwaukee 3607 Butler 724 Valparaiso 413 Green Bay 185 Detroit 75 Youngstown St. 14 Loyola Chicago 3 Wright St. 2
2012 conference previews, part 3
12.28.11
This is the third installment of the monte-carlo style conference previews where I simulate each conference’s schedule 10,000 times. If you’re unclear as to what’s happening, check out Monday’s post, then look back with fondness on yesterday’s effort. Today, we get into the territory where this analysis predicts that the favorite in each conference is barely better than a coin flip to win.
20. ACC (Predicted champ: North Carolina, 59%)
It’s no surprise that the Tar Heels are the favorite to win the ACC, but it’s a bit surprising that they are just the 13th-strongest favorite in the land. And there’s a 15% chance that the champ is not UNC or Duke. I guess that’s a lot.
North Carolina 5941 Duke 2691 Virginia 682 Florida St. 258 Virginia Tech 248 N.C. State 72 Georgia Tech 51 Miami FL 50 Clemson 7
19. CAA (VCU, 58%)
After struggling through the first two weeks of the season, the Rams are backing up their Final Four appearance quite well. The story of this list though is Georgia State, picked to finish next-to-last by the CAA media. (I, however, had them as only the fourth-worst team in the conference, thank you very much.) Take a bow, Ron Hunter. (And me!)
VCU 5812 Georgia St. 1656 George Mason 1005 Drexel 751 Old Dominion 435 James Madison 265 Delaware 66 Hofstra 4 NC Wilmington 3 Northeastern 3
18. Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee, 55%)
The Blue Radiers have away-from-home wins against UCLA and Ole Miss, and while neither win is terribly impressive in itself, both were by fairly convincing margins. Middle Tennessee is legit, but Joe Scott, whose teams have finished last or second-to-last in adjusted tempo every season since 2003, has resurrected his career in the land of Tebow. The Pioneers are a legit threat to win the Sun Belt this season.
Middle Tennessee 5545 Denver 3879 Florida Atlantic 422 La. Lafayette 67 Arkansas St. 38 South Alabama 37 North Texas 7 Troy 4 Western Kentucky 2 Ark. Little Rock 1
17. Mountain West (UNLV, 55%)
UNLV has gotten the bulk of the MW publicity, and rightfully so, but New Mexico has been quietly lurking, completely unknown on the national scene for some reason. One of the more unusual statistical flukes in the tempo-free era was Steve Alford leading Iowa to the adjusted defensive efficiency title in 2006. His teams haven’t finished better than 25th in any other season since 2003. But this year the Lobos are currently 10th.
UNLV 5529 New Mexico 3208 San Diego St. 990 Wyoming 173 Colorado St. 50 Boise St. 48 Air Force 2
16. Great West (Utah Valley, 55%)
The Great West is down to six teams, and when there are only ten games on the conference schedule, just about anything can happen. Unless you’re Chicago State. Fun fact: Utah Valley is the only program in the nation that doggedly refuses to reveal its players’ weights. What are you scared of, Wolverines?
Utah Valley 5488 North Dakota 2781 Texas Pan American 765 Houston Baptist 697 NJIT 265 Chicago St. 4
15. MAC (Ohio, 54%)
Move over Javon McCrea and Zeke Marshall, Ohio is good. However, there’s a strong enough mid-section to the MAC that the Bobcats are going to have to work to finish with the best conference record in the league.
Ohio 5361 Kent St. 1348 Buffalo 1296 Ball St. 795 Akron 653 Western Michigan 487 Bowling Green 28 Central Michigan 25 Miami OH 6 Toledo 0
14. Pac-12 (Cal, 53%)
Yes, the Pac-12 stinks by power conference standards, but don’t hold that against Cal or Stanford who are good enough to be at-large selections and have met or exceeded pre-season expectations.
California 5293 Stanford 2371 Arizona 1329 Oregon St. 372 Washington 368 Washington St. 195 UCLA 56 Oregon 12 USC 3 Arizona St. 1