Subscribe!
CourtIntelligence powered by kenpom.com

The good stuff


At other venues...
  • ESPN.com ($)
  • Deadspin
  • Slate

  • Strategy
  • Whether to foul up 3 late
  • The value of 2-for-1’s

  • Philosophy
  • All points are not created equal
  • Brady Heslip’s non-slump
  • The magic of negative motivation
  • A treatise on plus-minus
  • The preseason AP poll is great
  • The magic of negative motivation
  • The lack of information in close-game performance
  • Why I don’t believe in clutchness*

  • Fun stuff
  • The missing 1-point games
  • Which two teams last lost longest ago?
  • How many first-round picks will Kentucky have?
  • Prepare for the Kobe invasion
  • Predicting John Henson's free throw percentage
  • Can Derrick Williams set the three-point accuracy record?
  • Play-by-play Theater: earliest disqualification
  • Monthly Archives

  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • July 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • November 2010
  • October 2010
  • August 2010
  • July 2010
  • June 2010
  • May 2010
  • April 2010
  • March 2010
  • February 2010
  • January 2010
  • December 2009
  • November 2009
  • October 2009
  • July 2009
  • February 2009
  • January 2009
  • December 2008
  • November 2008
  • October 2007
  • September 2007
  • July 2007
  • June 2007
  • May 2007
  • April 2007
  • March 2007
  • February 2007
  • January 2007
  • December 2006
  • November 2006
  • October 2006
  • September 2006
  • August 2006
  • July 2006
  • June 2006
  • May 2006
  • April 2006
  • March 2006
  • February 2006
  • January 2006
  • December 2005
  • November 2005
  • October 2005
  • September 2005
  • August 2005
  • July 2005
  • June 2005
  • May 2005
  • April 2005
  • March 2005
  • February 2005
  • January 2005
  • December 2004
  • November 2004
  • October 2004
  • September 2004
  • August 2004
  • July 2004
  • June 2004
  • May 2004
  • April 2004
  • March 2004
  • February 2004
  • January 2004
  • December 2003
  • November 2003

  • RSS feed

    Big Sky log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 12, 2014


    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Big Sky Conference
    Location: Weber State
    Dates: March 13-15
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Davion Berry, Weber State

    Projections:

                   Semis  Final  Champ
    1 Weber St.      100   76.9   52.4
    4 Montana       61.3   31.3   13.7
    2 North Dakota  52.7   24.9    8.7
    6 N. Colorado   54.6   20.1    8.4
    3 N. Arizona    45.4   21.6    8.0
    5 Portland St.  38.7   15.7    5.5
    7 Sacramento St 47.3    9.6    3.3
    

    Read more...

    Big Ten log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Big Ten Conference
    Location: Indianapolis (Bankers Life Fieldhouse)
    Dates: March 13-16
    Chance of bid thief:
    Current kPOY: Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin

    Projections:

                    Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Michigan      100   72.6   45.1   25.4
     2 Wisconsin     100   73.7   40.4   22.1
     5 Ohio St.     82.2   55.2   28.9   15.1
     3 Michigan St.  100   55.9   29.3   15.0
     6 Iowa         86.2   42.3   21.8   10.9
     4 Nebraska      100   39.4   14.1    5.0
     8 Indiana      57.8   17.4    7.3    2.6
     7 Minnesota    58.9   17.1    5.7    1.9
     9 Illinois     42.2   10.1    3.5    1.0
    10 Penn St.     41.1    9.2    2.4    0.6
    12 Purdue       17.8    5.5    1.1    0.2
    11 Northwestern 13.8    1.8    0.3    0.05
    
    

    Read more...

    ACC log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 11, 2014


    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Atlantic Coast Conference
    Location: Greensboro, N.C. (Greensboro Coliseum)
    Dates: March 12-16
    Chance of bid thief: 6 percent
    Current kPOY: Jabari Parker, Duke

    Projections:

                      Rd1   Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Virginia       100    100   77.4   54.1   33.1
     3 Duke           100    100   80.2   49.5   26.9
     2 Syracuse       100    100   77.8   38.9   18.9
     4 North Carolina 100    100   55.3   20.7    8.6
     5 Pitt           100   78.2   39.8   15.2    6.5
     9 Florida St.    100   52.2   12.2    5.1    1.7
     6 Clemson        100   70.7   16.5    5.7    1.6
     8 Maryland       100   47.8   10.4    4.1    1.3
    10 Miami FL      80.0   43.7   10.8    2.8    0.7
     7 N.C. State     100   51.6   11.0    2.5    0.5
    13 Notre Dame    57.8   13.9    3.4    0.6    0.1
    11 Georgia Tech  56.0   17.6    2.2    0.4    0.07
    12 Wake Forest   42.2    7.9    1.5    0.2    0.03
    14 Boston Coll.  44.0   11.7    1.1    0.2    0.02
    15 Virginia Tech 20.0    4.6    0.4    0.03   0.002
    

    Read more...

    Big 12 log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Big 12 Conference
    Location: Kansas City (Sprint Center)
    Dates: March 12-15
    Chance of bid thief: 4 percent
    Current kPOY: Andrew Wiggins, Kansas

    Projections:

                  Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Kansas      100   74.2   56.3   43.0
     2 Oklahoma    100   56.7   34.6   13.2
     4 Iowa St.    100   58.1   18.8   10.2
     7 Baylor     91.3   42.7   24.7    8.7
     3 Texas       100   57.3   25.1    7.9
     8 Okla. St.  73.6   22.2   12.8    7.5
     5 Kansas St.  100   41.9   10.9    5.0
     6 W. Virginia 100   42.7   15.6    4.0
     9 Texas Tech 26.4    3.5    1.2    0.4
    10 TCU         8.7    0.7    0.08   0.004
    

    Read more...

    Mountain West log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Mountain West Conference
    Location: UNLV
    Dates: March 12-15
    Chance of bid thief: 29 percent
    Current kPOY: Xavier Thames, San Diego State

    Projections:

                    Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 San Diego St. 100   82.1   58.0   36.5
     2 New Mexico    100   81.4   62.1   34.6
     4 UNLV          100   73.7   29.9   14.6
     6 Boise St.    89.3   57.3   19.7    6.3
     3 Nevada        100   40.8    9.5    2.2
     7 Fresno St.   78.6   17.1    8.2    2.1
     5 Wyoming       100   26.3    6.6    2.1
     8 Utah St.     53.6   10.1    3.2    1.0
     9 Colorado St. 46.4    7.8    2.3    0.6
    10 Air Force    21.4    1.5    0.3    0.03
    11 San Jose St. 10.7    1.9    0.1    0.009
    

    Read more...

    Pac-12 log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Pac-12 Conference
    Location: Las Vegas (MGM Grand)
    Dates: March 12-15
    Chance of bid thief: 6 percent
    Current kPOY: Nick Johnson, Arizona

    Projections:

                  Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Arizona     100   81.0   69.9   54.4
     2 UCLA        100   54.5   30.5   10.7
     3 Arizona St. 100   58.2   27.2    8.7
     7 Oregon     76.5   39.7   23.0    8.4
     8 Utah       72.1   16.2   10.5    5.3
     6 Stanford   84.3   39.6   17.3    5.1
     4 California  100   52.5    9.5    3.4
     5 Colorado   76.2   41.1    8.4    3.3
     9 Washington 27.9    2.8    1.2    0.3
    10 Oregon St. 23.5    5.9    1.8    0.3
    12 USC        23.8    6.4    0.5    0.09
    11 Wash. St.  15.7    2.2    0.3    0.02
    
    

     

    Read more...

    Atlantic 10 log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, March 10, 2014


    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Atlantic 10 Conference
    Location: Brooklyn (Barclays Center)
    Dates: March 12-16
    Chance of bid thief: 6 percent
    Current kPOY: Treveon Graham, VCU

    Projections:

                     Rd1   Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     2 VCU           100    100   81.9   54.7   36.6
     1 Saint Louis   100    100   71.8   44.4   21.5
     3 Geo. Wash.    100    100   58.6   24.6   13.1
     4 St. Joseph's  100    100   52.9   23.5    8.7
     5 Dayton        100   76.7   40.8   19.4    7.7
     6 UMass         100   69.2   32.6   12.9    6.5
     9 St. Bona.     100   55.2   16.6    6.8    2.0
     7 Richmond      100   61.3   12.6    4.4    1.5
     8 La Salle      100   44.8   11.6    4.2    1.1
    11 Rhode Island  100   30.8    8.7    2.1    0.7
    10 Duquesne      100   38.7    5.5    1.4    0.4
    12 George Mason 66.7   18.1    5.4    1.4    0.3
    13 Fordham      33.3    5.2    0.9    0.1    0.02
    
    

    Read more...

    Southland log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Southland Conference
    Location: Katy, Texas (Merrell Center)
    Dates: March 12-15
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Jacob Parker, Stephen F. Austin

    Projections:

                     Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
    1 S.F. Austin     100   100    80.4   65.2
    2 TAMU CC         100   100    45.7   10.2
    4 Northwestern St 100   77.5   17.8   10.0
    6 Oral Roberts   79.5   43.5   25.3    7.1
    3 Sam Houston St. 100   51.7   27.7    6.9
    5 Nicholls St.   52.8   12.3    1.0    0.3
    8 SE Louisiana   47.2   10.1    0.8    0.2
    7 McNeese St.    20.5    4.8    1.3    0.1
    

    Read more...

    SEC log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Southeastern Conference
    Location: Atlanta (Georgia Dome)
    Dates: March 12-15
    Chance of bid thief: 13% (Assuming Tennessee and Arkansas get at-large bids)
    Current kPOY: Jordan McRae, Tennessee

    Projections:

                    Rd1   Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Florida      100    100   88.1   61.9   49.2
     4 Tennessee    100    100   75.9   30.0   20.3
     2 Kentucky     100    100   71.3   51.8   18.3
     3 Georgia      100    100   59.6   21.5    4.3
     5 Arkansas     100   71.7   20.3    4.5    2.1
     7 LSU          100   57.2   17.9    9.8    2.0
     6 Mississippi  100   59.3   25.4    7.6    1.2
     8 Missouri     100   66.5    9.3    2.8    1.1
    10 Alabama      100   42.8   10.9    5.2    0.9
    11 Vanderbilt  77.8   36.3   14.3    3.9    0.6
     9 Texas A&M    100   33.5    2.5    0.5    0.1
    12 Auburn      53.3   15.7    2.2    0.3    0.07
    13 S. Carolina 46.7   12.6    1.6    0.2    0.04
    14 Miss. St.   22.2    4.4    0.7    0.07   0.003
    
    

    Read more...

    Big East log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Big East Conference
    Location: New York (Madison Square Garden)
    Dates: March 12-15
    Chance of bid thief: 17%
    Current kPOY: Doug McDermott, Creighton

    Projections:

                  Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Villanova   100   85.8   60.1   37.6
     2 Creighton   100   78.4   58.7   32.8
     5 St. John's  100   64.7   25.9   12.4
     3 Xavier      100   57.0   19.0    6.4
     4 Providence  100   35.3    9.9    3.4
     6 Marquette   100   43.0   11.9    3.3
     7 Georgetown 82.4   20.4   10.1    3.1
     8 Seton Hall 51.3    7.4    2.2    0.5
     9 Butler     48.7    6.8    1.9    0.4
    10 DePaul     17.6    1.2    0.2    0.02
    

    Read more...

    Page 3 of 84 pages  < 1 2 3 4 5 >  Last ›