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    Big East log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, March 10, 2014


    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Big East Conference
    Location: New York (Madison Square Garden)
    Dates: March 12-15
    Chance of bid thief: 17%
    Current kPOY: Doug McDermott, Creighton

    Projections:

                  Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Villanova   100   85.8   60.1   37.6
     2 Creighton   100   78.4   58.7   32.8
     5 St. John's  100   64.7   25.9   12.4
     3 Xavier      100   57.0   19.0    6.4
     4 Providence  100   35.3    9.9    3.4
     6 Marquette   100   43.0   11.9    3.3
     7 Georgetown 82.4   20.4   10.1    3.1
     8 Seton Hall 51.3    7.4    2.2    0.5
     9 Butler     48.7    6.8    1.9    0.4
    10 DePaul     17.6    1.2    0.2    0.02
    

    Read more...

    American log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    American Athletic Conference
    Location: Memphis
    Dates: March 12-15
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Russ Smith, Louisville

    Projections:

                  Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     2 Louisville  100   95.4   73.9   53.9
     1 Cincinnati  100   88.4   47.9   17.5
     3 SMU         100   82.5   23.6   11.5
     5 Memphis     100   54.0   28.2    9.7
     4 UConn       100   46.0   22.4    7.0
     6 Houston     100   17.5    1.6    0.3
     8 Temple     54.5    6.8    1.0    0.09
     7 Rutgers    55.3    2.8    0.5    0.06
     9 UCF        45.5    4.8    0.6    0.04
    10 S. Florida 44.7    1.8    0.3    0.03
    

    Read more...

    SWAC log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Southwestern Athletic Conference
    Location: Houston (Toyota Center)
    Dates: March 11-15
    Chance of bid thief: Are you kidding?
    Current kPOY: Aaric Murray, Texas Southern

    Projections:

                     Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Southern       100   86.9   69.6   50.1
     2 Texas Southern 100   68.9   46.2   21.3
     3 Alabama St.    100   55.2   22.2    7.4
     5 Alabama A&M    100   52.0   13.8    5.6
     7 Jackson St.   79.9   28.6   15.2    5.1
     4 Ark-Pine Bluff 100   48.0   12.1    4.7
     6 Alcorn St.     100   44.8   15.9    4.6
     8 Prairie View  53.8    6.6    2.4    0.6
     9 Miss. Val. St 46.2    6.5    2.1    0.5
    10 Grambling St. 20.1    2.5    0.5    0.04
    
    

     

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    MAC log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, March 9, 2014


    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Mid-American Conference
    Location: First round at campus sites, remainder at Cleveland (Quicken Loans Arena)
    Dates: March 10, 12-15
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Javon McCrea, Buffalo

    Projections:

                      Rd1   Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     2 Toledo         100    100   100    50.4   28.9
     1 W. Michigan    100    100   100    51.3   21.9
     3 Buffalo        100    100   63.8   34.2   20.9
     4 Akron          100    100   52.6   25.7   10.7
     5 Ohio          92.7   64.1   35.1   18.8    8.6
     6 E. Michigan   91.1   64.3   27.9   13.1    7.2
     9 Kent St.      40.3   15.0    5.8    2.1    0.7
     7 N. Illinois   68.0   22.9    5.7    1.6    0.5
     8 Miami OH      59.7   19.1    6.2    2.0    0.5
    10 Bowling Green 32.0   10.1    2.3    0.6    0.2
    11 C. Michigan    8.9    2.8    0.3    0.05   0.009
    12 Ball St.       7.3    1.8    0.3    0.04   0.005
    

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    Conference USA log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Conference USA
    Location: UTEP
    Dates: March 11-15
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Shawn Jones, Middle Tennessee

    Projections:

                      Rd1   Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 La. Tech       100    100   80.9   43.6   29.2
     5 UTEP           100   90.7   52.7   29.6   20.0
     2 Tulsa          100    100   83.9   46.9   17.8
     3 Middle Tenn.   100    100   77.6   43.0   16.4
     4 Southern Miss  100    100   46.0   22.4   13.5
     8 UAB            100   57.8   12.2    2.9    1.1
     6 Old Dominion   100   60.8   15.4    4.8    0.9
    10 North Texas   75.0   49.5   10.4    2.8    0.4
     9 Charlotte      100   42.2    6.9    1.3    0.4
    11 Fla. Atlantic 50.9   20.2    3.7    0.9    0.1
    14 Marshall      49.1   19.0    3.3    0.8    0.09
     7 Tulane         100   40.6    4.9    0.8    0.07
    12 East Carolina 71.0    7.9    1.2    0.2    0.04
    15 Rice          25.0    9.9    0.8    0.09   0.006
    13 UTSA          29.0    1.4    0.09   0.007  0.0007
    
    

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    MEAC log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Saturday, March 8, 2014


    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
    Location: Norfolk, Va. (Norfolk Scope)
    Dates: March 10-15
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Jeremy Ingram, N.C. Central

    Projections:

                      Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 N.C. Central    100   94.3   76.4   57.9
     2 Hampton         100   80.9   54.5   20.1
     3 Morgan St.      100   75.9   32.6    9.1
     4 Norfolk St.    84.3   57.5   15.4    8.3
     5 Savannah St.   77.3   33.2    6.2    2.2
     7 Coppin St.     68.5   15.4    5.9    1.0
     6 Florida A&M    57.4   15.2    4.3    0.7
    11 Delaware St.   42.6    9.0    2.1    0.3
     8 Howard         51.9    3.1    0.7    0.1
     9 N.C. A&T       48.1    2.6    0.6    0.09
    10 Beth. Cookman  31.5    3.7    0.7    0.06
    13 UMES           15.7    4.8    0.4    0.06
    12 S. Carolina St 22.7    4.5    0.3    0.05
    

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    America East log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, March 7, 2014


    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    America East
    Location: Quarters and semis at Albany, final at higher seed
    Dates: March 8, 9, 15
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Clancy Rugg, Vermont

    Projections:

                   Semis  Final  Champ
    1 Vermont       95.6   72.3   64.0
    2 Stony Brook   89.2   63.4   19.9
    4 Albany        87.1   26.1    8.7
    3 Hartford      77.6   30.0    6.8
    6 Binghamton    22.4    3.9    0.2
    5 UMBC          12.9    1.0    0.1
    7 Maine         10.8    2.7    0.1
    8 New Hampshire  4.4    0.7    0.07
    

     

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    Summit League log5

    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Summit League
    Location: Sioux Falls, S.D. (Sioux Falls Arena)
    Dates: March 8-11
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Taylor Braun, North Dakota State

    Projections:

                       Semis  Final  Champ
    1 North Dakota St.  100    70.3   46.3
    3 South Dakota St. 83.7    58.1   27.5
    4 Denver           72.4    24.0   11.9
    2 IPFW             86.0    34.9   11.3
    5 South Dakota     27.6     5.7    2.0
    6 W. Illinois      16.3     5.4    0.8
    7 IUPUI            14.0     1.6    0.1
    

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    CAA log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, March 6, 2014


    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Colonial Athletic Association
    Location: Baltimore (Baltimore Arena)
    Dates: March 7-10
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: Jerrelle Benimon, Towson

    Projections:

                     Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
    2 Towson          100   83.4   60.4   33.5
    1 Delaware        100   82.0   49.8   30.2
    4 Drexel          100   68.1   34.7   17.8
    3 William & Mary  100   53.2   18.7    7.1
    6 Charleston      100   46.8   15.2    5.3
    5 Northeastern    100   31.9   10.9    3.7
    7 James Madison   100   16.6    5.7    1.4
    8 Hofstra        51.2    9.3    2.4    0.6
    9 UNC Wilmington 48.8    8.5    2.2    0.5
    

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    SoCon log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 5, 2014


    I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

    Southern Conference
    Location: Asheville, N.C. (U.S. Cellular Center)
    Dates: March 7-10
    Chance of bid thief: zero
    Current kPOY: De’Mon Brooks, Davidson

    Projections:

                      Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
     1 Davidson        100   89.4   63.1   47.0
     3 Wofford         100   78.7   53.0   21.3
     4 Elon            100   59.9   22.6   13.4
     2 Chattanooga     100   66.8   28.9    8.4
     5 W. Carolina     100   40.1   11.9    5.9
     7 Ga. Southern   67.5   25.7    8.4    1.7
     6 UNC Greensboro 72.4   18.2    7.6    1.5
     8 Samford        58.0    6.9    1.7    0.5
     9 Appalachian St 42.0    3.7    0.7    0.2
    10 Furman         32.5    7.4    1.5    0.2
    11 The Citadel    27.6    3.1    0.7    0.06
    
    

    Read more...

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