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Thursday, March 15, 2007

Florida Isn’t Going to the Final Four

You’ll recall last year at this time, I went a little postal on how many experts were forecasting a Duke/UConn final, when such a game was much more of a longshot than the pundits’ unanimity suggested.

The gutless wonders out there picking a Duke/UConn final make me laugh. I mean that could happen, but it’s not as likely as a lot of people are making it out to be.

Geez. Relax, man.

But looking at this years predictions, I can’t help but feel some deja vu. Here’s how the 22 experts on ESPN.com, SI.com, and CBS Sportsline picked the Final Four.

West: UCLA 11, Kansas 10, Virginia Tech 1
South: Texas A&M 11, Ohio St. 8, Memphis 2, Virginia 1
East: Georgetown 11, UNC 9, Texas 2
Midwest: Florida 22

88 Final Four teams picked and exactly six outside of the Trendy Seven. Look, it doesn’t take an expert to tell us that a member of the Trendy Seven is good, so can’t somebody pick a darkhorse or two? (No, not Virginia, Dennis Dodd. I mean a team that actually has a chance.) All we’ve been hearing about is how great the Pac-10 is, and yet not a single Pac-10 team in the mix, despite a couple of 3-seeds out there. How about Southern Illinois or Nevada, who finished in the AP Top 15? Heck, Wisconsin and Memphis got in as 2-seeds and have only 2 picks between them. A lot of people allegedly thought those teams were pretty good down the stretch.

But nothing burns me more than the fact that everybody picked Florida.

I can’t stress this enough, but chances are better that Florida isn’t going to Atlanta than is. Whether you believe log5 or the betting public. Or even if you believe Florida has been dogging it to this point, which they surely have to some extent.

Of course, we know the Gators are the best team in the region. We don’t need power ratings or experts to tell us that. That’s not exactly the point. The point is, it’s March Madness. And every team in the field needs at least some luck to get to the Final Four. Florida might need it less than anybody else, but they still need it.

Enjoy the games...Oh, and I’m picking Georgia Tech from the Midwest.

Yeah, crazy, I know. Sure, they could lose to UNLV. They will lose to UNLV if they play D like they did against Wake Forest. Heck, they’d lose to Nevada-Tonopah if they played D like that.

But you don’t need me to tell you that Georgia Tech isn’t the best team in the region. However, if they had UVa’s conference schedule and luck, the Jackets would be a 4-seed, and somebody might be picking them. Or maybe still just me. Whatever.

By the way, nice e-mail by Greg S. in the Wonk blog yesterday. Nobody, I mean nobody, is sticking up for Wisconsin, either. Yet the argument that their offensive slump is as much schedule-based as Butch-based is a legitimate one. Not one I necessarily buy, but legitimate. And their D should still be dominant without Butch given the team-based nature of the Ryan system. So if you want a “safer” non-Florida pick, Wisconsin isn’t bad. Neither is Maryland.

But please, fight the power. It’s more fun that way.

Finally, a parting e-mail from our log5 contributor, Mr. Picklesimer…

Hi Ken,

I just did these calculations for fun using the percentages chart I sent you...just thought I’d share.  I haven’t double-checked them, but they’d be easy enough to check again if you don’t believe any certain ones.  There certainly are some interesting ones in here:

A #1-seed has a 60.22% chance of winning it all
A #2-seed has a 22.21% chance
A #3-seed has a 8.55% chance
There’s a 93.87% chance the winner will be seeded 1-4

Teams seeded #13 or below have only a 0.171% chance of making the final four
Most likely of these teams to make final four: Davidson...by far

Winner from the East: 33.80%
From the Midwest: 19.64%
From the South: 19.49%
From the West: 27.06%

40.04% chance we’ll see all 4 #1’s in the Sweet 16
16.47% chance we’ll see all 4 #1’s in the Elite 8
3.12% chance we’ll see all 4 #1’s in the final four
6.21% chance we’ll see the top 2 overall in the finals (UF vs. UNC)

Champion by major conference:
ACC: 28.01% (7 teams)
Big 12: 27.46% (4 teams)
Big 10: 16.92% (6 teams)
Big East: 11.35% (6 teams)
SEC: 9.09% (5 teams)
Pac-10: 3.83% (6 teams)

Once again, I really can’t thank you enough for all the data you provide and maintain.

-Kevin

Posted on 03/15 at 12:05 AM
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Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Bracket Breakdown: South/East

I’ve been under the weather, so I’m not in the mood to write much. Fortunately, these two regions are not very complicated.

First, the South: 

                 2nd Rd Sweet16   Elite8   Final4   Finals  Champs
1   Ohio St.     98.62%  82.16%   68.80%   41.49%   21.00%  11.32%
3   Texas A&M    95.07%  70.87%   46.80%   27.35%   13.31%   6.91%
2   Memphis      98.03%  73.77%   34.47%   16.88%    6.59%   2.76%
6   Louisville   71.81%  23.52%   10.88%    4.33%    1.31%   0.43%
5   Tennessee    87.40%  51.42%   12.43%    3.29%    0.68%   0.15%
9   Xavier       61.50%  12.37%    6.84%    1.89%    0.41%   0.09%
10  Creighton    67.29%  20.26%    5.54%    1.68%    0.37%   0.09%
4   Virginia     89.61%  44.80%    9.40%    2.15%    0.38%   0.07%
8   BYU          38.50%   5.37%    2.36%    0.46%    0.07%   0.01%
11  Stanford     28.19%   4.89%    1.29%    0.29%    0.05%   0.01%
7   Nevada       32.71%   5.85%    0.94%    0.18%    0.02%   0.00%
12  LB St        12.60%   2.48%    0.12%    0.01%    0.00%   0.00%
14  Pennsylvania  4.93%   0.72%    0.08%    0.01%    0.00%   0.00%
13  Albany       10.39%   1.30%    0.04%    0.00%    0.00%   0.00%
16  C. Conn.      1.38%   0.09%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%   0.00%
15  North Texas   1.97%   0.12%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%   0.00%

This is the weakest region of the four, and just about every bracket will have Ohio State or Texas A&M. But Memphis and Louisville are legitimate darkhorse picks, especially considering Louisville’s semi-home court advantage in a 2nd round game against A&M, which isn’t accounted for here.

A while ago, I surmised that Ohio State could survive with Greg Oden on the bench better than the most pundits thought. But after doing the research, that was, um, wrong. Here’s Oden’s on/off plus/minus data for the ten most recent games that substitution data is available for. 

              On   Off    Min
Michigan St.  +10   -1   33:18  
Michigan      +17   -4   29:47  
Purdue        + 8   -1   21:08  
Penn St.      +11   -9   30:46  
Penn St.      +10   -2   22:47  
Wisconsin     + 7   -6   34:51  
Michigan      + 9   -5   32:38  
Michigan      +14   -4   27:30  
Purdue        +13   -2   32:28  
Wisconsin     +15   +2   23:01  

Sum          +114  -32   28:49

Oden On / 40    +15.8
Oden Off / 40   -11.5
Difference      +27.3

Wow. Statistically, Ohio State is the most likely of the #1’s to go down in the first round. If I’m Central Connecticut, I go right at Oden every possession and flop when gets the ball in the post. Oden might end up with 30 points and 15 blocks with this strategy, but he almost might pick up a couple early fouls, and getting him on the bench is the only chance a big underdog has to hang with the Buckeyes.

Which is another reason why Texas A&M is a smart pick. Not that A&M would be a big underdog, but they’re an underdog against Ohio State for sure. Joseph Jones and Antanas Kavaliauskas draw fouls as well as anybody. Of course, they also pick them up in large numbers, too.

First round tidbit: Look for the Long Beach State/Tennessee game to be the fastest paced contest of the whole tourney.

Here’s the East Region: 

                 2nd Rd Sweet16   Elite8   Final4   Finals  Champs
1   N. Carolina  99.26%  81.43%   67.94%   48.69%   32.61%  20.90%
2   Georgetown   96.59%  81.33%   67.30%   32.43%   17.66%   9.09%
4   Texas        88.43%  55.85%   14.54%    6.11%    2.14%   0.69%
9   Mich. St.    60.71%  12.72%    7.24%    3.09%    1.10%   0.36%
3   Wash. St.    81.51%  52.09%   14.57%    3.27%    0.83%   0.19%
12  Arkansas     55.18%  24.33%    4.61%    1.52%    0.40%   0.09%
7   Boston Coll. 64.90%  13.48%    7.16%    1.44%    0.33%   0.07%
8   Marquette    39.29%   5.82%    2.70%    0.91%    0.24%   0.06%
6   Vanderbilt   71.57%  34.34%    7.68%    1.35%    0.27%   0.05%
5   USC          44.82%  17.69%    2.86%    0.83%    0.19%   0.04%
10  Texas Tech   35.10%   4.62%    1.79%    0.22%    0.03%   0.00%
13  New Mex. St. 11.57%   2.13%    0.11%    0.01%    0.00%   0.00%
11  GW           28.43%   8.04%    0.90%    0.08%    0.01%   0.00%
14  Oral Roberts 18.49%   5.52%    0.52%    0.04%    0.00%   0.00%
15  Belmont       3.41%   0.57%    0.09%    0.00%    0.00%   0.00%
16  E. Kentucky   0.74%   0.03%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%   0.00%

This appears to be a two-team race but I think that Texas is undervalued in my system right now. UNC has quite the minefield to negotiate to get to the regional finals, with potentially scary games against Michigan State in the 2nd round and Texas in the 3rd round. Georgetown’s path is much easier with BC or Texas Tech and then likely Washington State or Vandy. However, the Tar Heels are still the most likely champion according to log5. Even so, there’s nearly an 80% chance they won’t be cutting down the nets.

First round tidbit: Arkansas was the most bizarre at-large selection, having a sub-.500 conference record in the embarrassingly weak SEC West. But the committee set themselves up to look good by pairing them with USC.

I’ll post some tourney-wide statistical miscellany tomorrow morning.

Posted on 03/14 at 04:00 AM
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Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Bracket Breakdown: Midwest/West

Welcome to the kenpom.com Bracket Breakdown, a Boeheim-free zone. Log5 analysis is treated as gospel here, but I acknowledge that it’s not the answer to all of your bracket issues.

First up the Midwest Region: 

                 2nd Rd Sweet16   Elite8   Final4   Finals  Champs
1   Florida      99.72%  78.61%   56.54%   37.69%   21.07%  10.85%
2   Wisconsin    95.91%  68.27%   48.17%   25.15%   12.31%   5.45%
4   Maryland     86.42%  62.76%   26.04%   13.59%    5.64%   2.07%
6   Notre Dame   80.30%  47.69%   18.95%    6.86%    2.29%   0.66%
10  Georgia Tech 69.95%  25.14%   13.87%    5.07%    1.72%   0.50%
3   Oregon       86.02%  44.35%   15.76%    5.08%    1.51%   0.38%
5   Butler       72.39%  27.39%    7.13%    2.48%    0.65%   0.14%
9   Purdue       50.52%  10.89%    4.67%    1.70%    0.47%   0.11%
8   Arizona      49.48%  10.50%    4.45%    1.61%    0.44%   0.10%
7   UNLV         30.05%   6.16%    2.17%    0.45%    0.09%   0.01%
12  Old Dominion 27.61%   5.63%    0.70%    0.12%    0.02%   0.00%
11  Winthrop     19.70%   5.66%    0.84%    0.11%    0.01%   0.00%
13  Davidson     13.58%   4.21%    0.47%    0.07%    0.01%   0.00%
14  Miami (OH)   13.98%   2.31%    0.21%    0.02%    0.00%   0.00%
15  TAMU - CC     4.09%   0.43%    0.04%    0.00%    0.00%   0.00%
16  Jackson State 0.28%   0.00%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%   0.00%

As we’ll come to see, this is the most wide open of the four regions, with six teams having at least a 5% chance to get to Atlanta, including an interesting oddball.

Florida’s path to a repeat is potentially quite a bit tougher than last season. Florida getting to the Final Four last season wasn’t a mammoth surprise. Last year at this time, I said:

Some would use Florida’s tournament history to disqualify them from a run to Indy. But don’t hold last season against them - they got the shaft by drawing a (then-)highly-underrated Villanova in the second round. With questions about the first and third picks in this region - the health of Villanova’s Allan Ray and the complete loss of shooting touch by Ohio State’s Je’Kel Foster - this is a good opportunity for Billy Donovan to restore his post-season image.

(Note: I actually said something like this about every team just to cover myself.)

Draw is so important, and the Gators were the second choice to get to the Final Four from their region according to log5. And once they got there, they had the good fortune to draw an 11-seed. A nice draw combined with great play is the formula for a national title.

The draw is not so bad this time around either, the 3- and 5-seeds are relatively weak and the 2-seed has a serious injury to deal with. You have to go to the 4-, 6-, and 10-seeds to find teams that could cause problems for the Gators. With that said, just based on numbers alone, they’re the least likely #1 seed to win it all.

Wisconsin has had major offensive problems since losing Brian Butch. But 2.93 of those 4.93 games have been against either Ohio State (10th best adjusted DE) or Illinois (3rd best AdjDE), so there’s reason for uncertainty about how much Brian Butch’s elbow has impacted the Badgers. Florida and Maryland have the best defenses in this region, and the Badgers would avoid them until the Elite 8.

Most folks know my feelings on Oregon. It started with the Maarty post, but for a while there have been signs that the defense is not top quality. The Ducks have a 1-in-20 shot of getting to the Final Four, and their defense has been better over the last four games, but one of those was against an Arizona team that is notorious for Pac-10 tournament flops.

Maryland gets a tough draw in the first round against Davidson. Davidson is 2nd in the nation in defensive rebounding and Maryland’s offense has been pretty dependent on offensive boards. If Davidson can take care of the ball against Maryland’s press, this game would get interesting.

While the selection committee has its principles, it seems to make arbitrary decisions more often lately. They gave more weight to what Butler did in November that February and March. But Butler has an explosive offense and was the victim of circumstance in its conference championship - a one-point loss on the road in which the opponent shot (eFG) 62.5% while attempting only four lay-ups. The Bulldogs had that luck returned by drawing ODU as a 12-seed, when they could have had to deal with Illinois or Arkansas. ODU is a poor three-point shooting team and they’ll be taking a lot of them against Butler.

As we get into the Cinderella seeds, two teams stand out - Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. Most folks would say it’s crazy to think one of them would make the Elite 8, and the odds are heavily against each doing so, but each is team is better than their seed would indicate. If they can get by serious first-round tests, watch out for these two. When you have Luke Harangody, anything is possible.

Now for the West: 

                 2nd Rd  Sweet16   Elite8   Final4   Finals   Champs
1   Kansas       99.19%   78.52%   66.68%   48.48%   32.32%   18.89%
2   UCLA         98.08%   67.22%   38.23%   16.59%    8.01%    3.18%
6   Duke         86.21%   51.88%   27.54%   11.37%    5.22%    1.95%
3   Pittsburgh   89.71%   43.85%   20.50%    7.35%    2.93%    0.93%
7   Indiana      71.17%   26.83%   11.68%    3.76%    1.34%    0.37%
8   Kentucky     50.09%   10.76%    6.46%    2.69%    0.97%    0.28%
9   Villanova    49.91%   10.69%    6.41%    2.67%    0.96%    0.27%
12  Illinois     50.70%   30.03%    6.59%    2.29%    0.68%    0.16%
5   Va. Tech     49.30%   28.88%    6.21%    2.12%    0.62%    0.14%
4   S. Illinois  82.89%   38.49%    7.52%    2.36%    0.63%    0.13%
10  Gonzaga      28.83%    5.86%    1.43%    0.25%    0.05%    0.01%
11  VCU          13.79%    3.05%    0.49%    0.06%    0.01%    0.00%
13  Holy Cross   17.11%    2.60%    0.13%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%
14  Wright St.   10.29%    1.22%    0.12%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%
15  Weber St.     1.92%    0.09%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%
16  Play-In       0.81%    0.02%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%

The first thing that jumps out at me is how much easier Kansas’ side of the bracket is. The 2nd round game is no picnic, but the Sweet 16 game should be an easier test by going against one of [Virginia Tech, Illinois, Southern Illinois], although it that game should be very ugly in the points department. Putting that second game in perspective, the Jayhawks have the worst chance of all the No. 1’s to get to the Sweet 16, but the 2nd best to win the championship.

On the other side, while UCLA has a mini-home court advantage, they have to try to fend off some combination of [Indiana, Gonzaga] and [Pitt, Duke] to get to a potential game with Kansas.

The rep for Pitt is that they win with D, but they’ve given up more than a point per possession in eight of their last nine. Getting Aaron Gray over the 30 minute mark will be a key to their effectiveness.

The chances for miracle runs by Southern Illinois and Virginia Tech are severely stunted by having to face Kansas in the second round.

Duke and Indiana are given a real chance to advance deep. Another case of “I don’t see it”, but do you ever see a 6+ seed getting to the Final Four?

Kentucky and Villanova are looked at as underachieving power conference teams. Villanova has been playing better over the past month, while Kentucky’s defense has continued to regress. But Kentucky’s schedule has been the toughest in the land. The health of Mike Nardi could be crucial in deciding this one.

Finally, keep an eye on Illinois...only if you’re wistful for Dick Bennett’s days in the Big Ten. A great defense (3rd in adjusted DE) and a brutal pace (300th in adjusted tempo) have meant that the loser of an Illinois game has scored less than 50 in 7 of their last 13 games. You’ll be lucky to see either team get out of the 50’s in a dream Illini/Saluki 2nd round game.

Posted on 03/13 at 04:00 AM
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