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Monday, March 19, 2007

Tracking the Doomsday Scenario

Here are the odds on our 16-team tourney courtesy of Mr. Picklesimer.

- The chance of all four #1’s making it to Atlanta (my Doomsday Scenario) is up to 9%. If that happens, I’m not sure how I would cope. It’s comforting to know it’s still a longshot.
- The “Cinderella’s Revenge” Final Four of UNLV, Southern Illinois, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee has a .0009% chance of happening.
- Thanks to the Xavier scare and the relative improvement of the other three teams in their region, Ohio State’s chance at the national title has actually decreased despite winning twice.
- Kansas has become the team with the best chance to win it all.
- The chance of Maarty hoisting the trophy is over 1% now, although that doesn’t account for fate which is clearly on Maarty’s side. 

                     elite8  final4  finals   champ 
Midwest
1 Florida             78.83   62.56   32.83   17.00 
5 Butler              21.17   10.82    2.63    0.61 
3 Oregon              61.41   18.29    4.87    1.24 
7 UNLV                38.59    8.33    1.58    0.28 
       
West
1 Kansas              84.20   58.85   39.08   22.71 
4 Southern Illinois   15.80    4.88    1.47    0.32 
3 Pittsburgh          37.32   11.05    4.45    1.37 
2 UCLA                62.68   25.23   13.10    5.53 
      
East
1 North Carolina      84.26   56.69   37.08   22.21 
5 USC                 15.74    4.71    1.26    0.30 
6 Vanderbilt          20.41    3.76    0.88    0.18 
2 Georgetown          79.59   34.83   18.66    8.97 
      
South
1 Ohio St.            77.89   42.95   19.69    9.57 
5 Tennessee           22.11    5.76    1.18    0.27 
3 Texas A&M           59.11   32.41   14.42    6.81 
2 Memphis             40.89   18.88    6.82    2.64

Posted on 03/19 at 04:00 AM
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Saturday, March 17, 2007

Charting Day 2

So, round 1 was a dud. But it makes us appreciate that none of this is staged, doesn’t it?

Virginia 84, Albany 57 [58 possessions]. In the first 7 vs. 15 game in history, the 7-seed wins easily. Considering what Connecticut went through last season, it’s an encouraging win for the Cavaliers.

UNLV 67, Georgia Tech 63 [59?]. Potential Final Four team goes down! For some reason I thought Will Bynum and BJ Elder were still around. Oh well, at least a couple others out publicly picked “Not Florida”, but yet made an intelligent selection. I’ll do better next year. How did this game end up so slow? I’ll tell you - crazy offensive rebounding on both ends. Both teams were able to grab over 50% of their own misses to cheat the shot clock and create multiple lengthy possessions. Useless trivia: Paul Hewitt’s substitutions equaled Georgia Tech’s possessions.

Memphis 73, North Texas 58 [71]. A couple of teams that have toned down their running act this season, and it showed in this game which barely cracked an average pace. Interesting game of unknowns on Sunday. Nevada just played its first Pomeroy top 50 team since December 9th, and Memphis hasn’t played one since December 20th.

Winthrop 74, Notre Dame 64 [74]. Harangody-mania will have to wait another year. Actually, Luke was awful, as a -20 in 16:46 will demonstrate. He sat for the Irish comeback as Mike Brey deployed the press, then returned for Winthrop’s final run.

Tennessee 121, Long Beach State 86 [76]. In the first 6 vs. 16 game in history, the 6-seed wins easily. Hey committee, can we just go back to conventional seeding next season? Now we get the first ever 6 vs. 7 game in the second round.

Wisconsin 76, Texas A&M CC 63 [68]. The Badgers gave the Islanders a 10-minute head start in this one. Now, we might be left with the impression that Wisconsin’s offense is struggling when they score 4 points in the first 10 minutes. But they did get their act together and salvage a mildly efficient game considering the opposition. This is the only dress rehearsal you get - time to start playing like a 2-seed.

Nevada 77, Creighton 71 (OT) [73]. If this game didn’t end up close, we should have just called off the whole thing.

Oregon 58, Miami 56 [52]. Ugh! The blackout game! It was entertaining! There was a half-court buzzer-beater at the end of the game! It didn’t matter! So the 2 and 3 in the Midwest looked rather weak and my supposedly undervalued 6 and 10 seeds bowed out. Things are looking nice for Florida, huh?

Virginia Tech 54, Illinois 52 [62]. Hokies score final 12 points, with Deron Washington scoring eight of those and personally preventing an Illinois/SIU game, where I’m convinced negative scoring would have been possible.

Kansas 107, Niagara 67 [86!]. It’s getting late, but I think it really was an 86-possession game. Someone check my math. If so, it was easily the fastest of the season for both teams.

Purdue 72, Arizona 63 [67]. And this is how Arizona’s season ends. Carl Landry was Carl Landry (21 and 13).

Texas 79, New Mexico St. 67 [69]. Yeah, Durant was awesome. 27 points and his shooting rate was only 27%, so it’s not like it was all on his shoulders. His 16 FTA’s might be masking that, however. Now we get to see how Tim Floyd deals with him. I’m mildly excited.

Kentucky 67, Villanova 58 [61]. Tubby Smith, fighting for his job, gives Dwight Perry his first career start. Perry had not played a full minute in the three games he had appeared in this season. Team is inspired to one of its most impressive W’s of the season. Tubby’s just crazy enough to do this against Kansas, also. He’s insane, insane like a fox.

Southern Illinois 61, Holy Cross 51 [66]. More free throw attempts than 2-point attempts in this one. All told, a grand total of 32 made field goals.

Florida 112, Jackson State 69 [74]. You wouldn’t know it by Florida’s OR% of 66.7 (5th best in a game between D-I’s this season), but this game was mildly suspenseful for about 12 minutes.

USC 77, Arkansas 60 [66]. Probably what the 3rd place team in the Pac 10 should do to the 3rd place team in the SEC West, but I was surprised it wasn’t closer.

Posted on 03/17 at 12:30 AM
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Friday, March 16, 2007

Charting Day 1

Possessions estimated unless HD data available.

Boston College 84, Texas Tech 75 [62 possessions]. The flex offense is right up there with the Princeton in terms of potency. But it just seems like the Eagles intentionally take off possessions defensively. I’d like to think this catches up with you eventually. Or, like, on Saturday, when you have to play a devastating offensive team.

Maryland 82, Davidson 70 [80!]. Maryland officially becomes “dangerous”. Their D hasn’t had a bad game in a long time, and their offense has the kind of balance that should scare any team not named the Hurricanes. Nice effort by Davidson, and we’ll hear more from Stephen Curry for sure.

Louisville 78, Stanford 58 [69]. Terrence Williams: 4 FGA’s and 4 assists. That’s a recipe for success. Folks that have Louisville in the Final Four, you have my admiration. Were they playing any other 3-seed in the second round, I’d be feeling good about your chances. Pitino is possibly the best tournament coach out there, but I have a feeling Gillispie will have a similar legacy within a decade. Louisville/Texas A&M should not be a second round game. Nor should it be in Lexington. This one is more of a toss-up than people realize.

Washington State 70, Oral Roberts 54 [58]. Six turnovers by the Cougars, but that’s what they do. Where’s a Marchello Vealy 3-point outbreak when you need it?

Butler 57, Old Dominion 46 [55]. Our one man efficiency-band Pete Campbell gets hot midway though the second half, hitting three 3’s in the span of 1:29. And in a game this low-scoring, that was huge.

Georgetown 80, Belmont 55 [62]. With Jeff Green on the floor, Georgetown outscored Belmont 35-30. With Roy Hibbert on the floor, the Hoyas had a 41-21 advantage. I wonder what the difference could have been: Hibbert’s 28.6 DR%, his 35.0 OR%, his 30.8 Assist%, his 21.4 Block%, or his zero turnovers? I know it was only Belmont, but it was as dominating of a game as you’ll see in the non-points stats in 21 minutes.

Texas A&M 68, Penn 52 [62]. A minor scare here for the Aggies who trailed with 13 minutes to go, but closed out the Quakers with a 31-13 spurt. Acie Law played all but 1:04 of this one. How long can he last against the Cardinal press? What A&M does with Donald Sloan running the point could be crucial. Worst case scenario relating to this situation was their game in the altitude against run-and-gun Colorado. Law played 26:40 and was +14, Sloan played 23:57 and was +13, so it’s not like Sloan is unreliable. This game will be slower paced than that one and not at altitude, so Law should be good for 35 minutes barring foul trouble, anyway.

Vanderbilt 77, George Washington 44 [65]. Has anybody ever figured out why CBS insists on the mid-afternoon blackout game? Just show us the damn game. We missed GW shooting 30.2% eFG.

Ohio State 78, Central Connecticut 57 [63]. Next.

VCU 79, Duke 77 [70]. So my Coach K love-fest nightmare has been avoided. Thank you, Eric Maynor. Talk during the game was how Duke was getting worn down, but VCU was not appreciably deeper that the Blue Devils. So shouldn’t we be questioning Duke’s stamina? Quite a few goofy questions in the post-game press conference, but none about this that I heard. Think we might hear some Anthony Grant coaching rumors next week? Or the week after. Maynor is going to give Pitt’s suspect perimeter D fits.

Michigan State 61, Marquette 49 [58]. Only saw about a minute of this one, which is fine since I’ve seen enough elbow dislocations for one season. Thought my box score parser was on the fritz seeing such few opportunities for assists by Marquette players. But they really only made 15 shots, with 29 of their 47 attempts coming from long range. Apparently, the Dunk Police dedicated this shift in Idong Ibok’s honor.

UCLA 70, Weber State 42 [61]. Next.

Xavier 79, BYU 77 [67]. The most entertaining game of the day. Both teams like to push and a partisan crowd always adds a little something. Not to mention one of only two games that were decided in the final minute.

Indiana 70, Gonzaga 57 [67]. Didn’t catch much of this one, but what little I saw involved the commentators obsessing over Abdullahi Kuso’s excellent defense on DJ White. If it was so great, why did Kuso only play 17 minutes? According to the HDBS, White must have been pretty dominant while Kuso was on the bench.

North Carolina 86, Eastern Kentucky 65 [72]. Eastern Kentucky went on a 29-9 run midway through the game. It would have been more interesting to start the game that way. Carolina had a TO% north of 30, but with an eFG% of 77.2 and an OR% of 52.4.

Pitt 79, Wright State 58 [70]. A fitting way to end the day.

Posted on 03/16 at 12:45 AM
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