the kenpom.com blog

This Just In…

03.05.06

Giving my own personal “Full Circle” coverage here…

- I haven’t heard anybody say it yet, so I will: Right now, UNC is the best team in the ACC. Even if you believe last night’s game was an abberation and Duke is still the best bet to go the farthest in the dance - which is perfectly reasonable - I think you’d have to admit the gap between these two is now very small. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Duke or UNC in the Final Four. I thought it was odd that near the end of the game, Brad Nessler noted that UNC was playing for a 2-seed in the ACC Tourney and would get the spoils of avoiding Duke until the title game. I mean, UNC had just won in Duke’s house. If there’s one team trying to avoid the other, I would suggest it’s the other way around.

- From a UNC perspective, the Tar Heels stuck to the John Chaney recipe of using their defensive currency on stifling Redick from three. Despite Lee Melchionni allegedly being dangerous if left open, he was a 33% three point shooter coming in. That’s nothing special. Sure, Melchionni can beat you if he’s left open. But you have to assume Redick will beat you if left open, despite his recent slump. Every three that Melchionni and Greg Paulus take is one less for Redick. Those two went 3 for 11, and just about every one was a good look.

- You want another reason why some people have a visceral hatred for the Dukies? The latest example is the idea that J.J. Redick is mentally drained. This going-for-the-ACC-record business was a tremendous burden, and we should all feel sorry for him. Coach K has been one of the leading proponents of this theory, like it was an inevitable byproduct of Redick being such a prolific scorer. Here’s one of the best scorers ever, but wait - it’s not all fun and games for him. Being that good carries a tremendous burden. Hey, how about this idea - at least in the case of Temple and UNC, the defense has been pretty solid on Redick. Duke’s first opponent in the ACC Tourney should feel his wrath.

- If you’re going to buy into the Redick fatigue idea, don’t let K off the hook. Through last Sunday’s games, Redick has played 91.9% of his team’s minutes (roughly 37 minutes per 40-minute game). That’s the most in the ACC and 19th in the nation, and for every one of those minutes he has been target #1 of the defense. If he’s fatigued - and I don’t think that he is - I’d propose that K’s overuse of Redick is the primary reason. In his last four games, Redick has averaged 39.5 mpg.

- And while I’m piling on Coach K, if he has any confidence in Sean Dockery running the point, he should give Greg Paulus some more bench time. His latest stats are 43.8% eFG and 33.6 TO%. I’ll confess that TO% is not the best way to measure a point guard’s ball handling ability, especially one that doesn’t shoot much, but there are only eight players in the country getting 80% of their team’s minutes with a TORate greater than 30. Paulus’ lack of scoring ability allows a team to run multiple players at Redick without penalty. I have to think that the Duke offense is more productive with a lineup of Dockery, Redick, Nelson, McRoberts, Williams.

- This game had a whopping 81 possessions, which had to make Roy Williams happy. Any of UNC’s players can and does bring the ball into the frontcourt. Even Hansbrough led a fast break once. I’m just saying it’s time to update your expectations. Enough talk about Roy being Coach of the Year and how crazy this all is. This isn’t January any more. This team is good enough to stand on its own now.

- Finally, through Possessograph^TM technology, we can witness that a pair of Duke droughts cost them against the steady scoring machine of UNC (scroll down a little):

Almost an Unlikely Trifecta

02.07.06

We almost saw the third of the 30+ game home winning streaks die last night, and it would have followed the precedent set by Southern Illinois and Illinois of it ending against a much inferior opponent. Gonzaga got by Saint Mary’s 62-61. It’s not often I feel confident enough to rip a coach’s decision, but SMC coach Randy Bennett made a blunder late in the game.

With 1:53 left, the Gaels had just made a bucket to take a five point lead. Adam Morrison was waiting at the scorer’s table to check in. Each team had two timeouts, and Bennett elected to use his after the made basket. But why? You know Mark Few has to get Morrison back in the game, so let him use it.

The result of the saved timeout for Gonzaga was that Few was able to make offense for defense substitutions for Morrison by using his two timeouts. Gonzaga scored on each of its three remaining possessions, and Saint Mary’s didn’t on its remaining two. Gonzaga may very well have won anyway, but you know the Gaels would have liked to see Ammo stay on the defensive end of the floor for at least one of their offensive possessions.

In other news, the inbox is filling up with people wanting me to prove/disprove whether officials working Duke games are required to be accredited by the American Express Coach K School for One-Sided Officiating. I would gladly do that, except it seems impossible. How do we distinguish the free throw advantage that Duke’s style of play naturally gives them from the free throw advantage Coach K-paid refs give them?

In other words, how do you tell the difference between Duke shooting 65% more free throws than its opponents and UConn shooting 67% more than its opponents? Both certainly get the benefit of the whistle based on having elite programs with intimidating coaches. Just like every dynasty-type team has had before them. It’s hard to tell from the stats if Duke is getting more than UConn. Both squads have a long way to go to match the ‘92 Duke team that had a whopping 79% more FTAs that its opposition.

I’ll lay out some more detailed stats on fouls and Duke later in the week, putting them into context nationally. Then I’ll let you draw your own conclusions. But I doubt your mind will change regardless of which side of the argument you defend now.

Line o’ the Night

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
P.J. Tucker            40  6-13  0-0  6-7  5-17  2 1 5  3  0   18
Result: Win. Texas 65, Texas Tech 44.

Larry Eustachy, Meet Joe Scott

12.15.05

Suddenly those awful offensive games by Southern Miss don’t appear to be so bad. Last night, Princeton tied the record for fewest points scored by a Division I team in the “modern era” (since the three-point line was introduced) in a 41-21 loss to Monmouth. Princeton, who regularly is among the best at passing the ball, recorded two assists on their nine made field goals for the game. The game’s 62 total points easily broke the modern-era record for combined offensive crappiness. The previous record was 67.

The Tigers went scoreless over a span of 14:52 in the second half. According to the NCAA Record Book, a school called Columbus owns this record by going scoreless for 15:33 in a 1984 game against UMass. Of course that was pre-shot clock, and Columbus wasn’t D1, so that record is somewhat tainted. Unlike some of the other records listed, the NCAA does not indicate what the longest scoreless streak has been since inception of the shot clock, but you have to think Princeton has a good chance of owning it.