Hawaii is for Losers
11.21.05
Which of these events over the weekend should you put the least stock in…
a) Stanford loses at home to a UC Irvine team picked to finish sixth in the Big West.
b) Gonzaga struggles at home to an Idaho team picked to finish last in the WAC.
c) Michigan State gets pounded at Hawaii.
My answer is (c), mainly because weird things happen on the islands.
Over the summer, I did a crude study on home court advantage and concluded that home court advantage has as much to do with the hassles of traveling as the fervor of the fans. Going to Hawaii maximizes the non-crowd factors an opposing team deals with. The long flight and possible jet lag can have an impact, as can the distraction of a vacation-like atmosphere, and if those things don’t get you, the tropical climate will wear you out during the game.
Could it be a coincidence that Chaminade also seems to pull out a win against a D1 team in Maui about every other year? The biggest upset of all time was pulled by Chaminade. Hawaii has had their share of upsets also. Most recently Michigan State, but there was a shocker over #2 Kansas in ‘97. People were abuzz about Hawaii after that win - they ended up settling for an 8-6 WAC record and a trip to the NIT.
Yes, bizarre things happen for mainland teams when they visit Hawaii. That’s also revealed by comparing the Rainbows’ home and road records in conference play in recent years.
Difference between home and road record
(Conference games only, 1999-2005)
Team Home Road Diff in Win%
1 Bradley 46-17 13-50 .524
2 Hawaii 44-14 14-44 .517
3 Alabama 43-13 16-40 .482
4 New Mexico 36-13 13-36 .469
5 Iowa St. 42-14 16-40 .464
Among all Division I teams, only Bradley has a bigger difference between home and road conference winning percentage since the ‘98-‘99 season. If conference teams - presumably with coaches who have experience handling the Hawaii trip - can’t crack the mystery of the islands, don’t you have to believe that non-conference teams have an even more difficult time of it?
Lines o’ the Night
Friday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Sasha Kaun 28 9-15 0-0 7-11 5-16 1 1 0 0 2 25
Result: Win. Kansas 90, Idaho State 66.
Sasha Kaun, let me rock you. Let me rock you, Sasha Kaun. That’s all I wanna do.
Seriously, you could have put Sasha Kaun in Phog Allen Fieldhouse by himself for 28 minutes last season and he couldn’t have produced like he did against Idaho State. He was 10 of 30 from the line all of last season!
Saturday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
John Bryant 10 3-6 0-0 4-4 3-15 1 0 1 2 2 10
Result: Win. Santa Clara 97, Cal State Stanislaus 53.
I don’t normally feel comfortable spotlighting a guy who only played in garbage time against a D2 team, but 15 boards in 10 minutes? That should get the coach’s attention.
Sunday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Jamareo Davidson 21 8-9 0-0 4-4 4-11 0 1 0 0 2 20
Result: Win. Alabama 105, Alabama St. 68.
Personally, I was disappointed this game wasn’t moved into ESPN’s Rivalry Week.
Some More Sleepers
11.17.05
Before the season gets going in earnest - just about every school that has yet to play a game will play one Friday or Saturday - I have to get a couple of other sleepers on the record. Earlier in the week I mentioned Creighton and Xavier. Earlier in the off-season I gushed about Utah State. A couple more to watch: Vanderbilt and Georgetown.
Last season, Vandy was 43rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 31st defensively. That put them 29th in adjusted pythagorean winning percentage, the highest ranked team to miss the tournament. They do suffer some losses, with the departures of three of their top six in terms of minutes played last season. The Commodores still have a nice one-two offensive punch in point guard Mario Moore and wing Shan Foster. Virginia transfer Derrick Byars gives them a shooting threat at the two.
Georgetown has been getting a little press, but they really should spend more time in the top 25 than out of it this season. They have nearly everybody back and they were damn good last season (35th/70th adj. offense/defense). Their offense was the third most improved in the nation. What can John Thompson III do in year two now that the players know what to expect from him and vice versa? I’m guessing big things.
Line o’ the Night
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Jason Harris 40 5-22 1-3 4-4 3-7 2 2 2 6 3 15
Result: Win. Sacramento St. 67, Southern 64 (OT).
There were only three games last night and two were glorified exhibitions, so pickins for Line o’ the Night were slim. Yahoo! named Harris the top performer in Sacramento State’s victory in a consolation game of the Guardians Classic. He missed 17 shots and committed 6 turnovers, but who am I to argue with Yahoo!?
A Call for Cinderellas
11.11.05
It’s going to happen.
Last season, it was Villanova. In 2004 it was Georgia Tech. Those are extreme examples from the March Madness era, but every season a few teams overcome bland pre-preseason predictions and make the post-season party, occasionally making serious noise there.
This is my attempt to discover those teams before their seasons begin. Players and fans of the two teams below surely have a warm fuzzy going into the season, but nary a media member or coach voted for them in the respective polls.
Creighton
Creighton has a recent seven-year run that takes a back seat only to Gonzaga among high-mid-majors.
Season Record NCAA Seed 2005 23-11 9 2004 20-9 - 2003 29-5 6 2002 23-9 12 2001 24-8 10 2000 23-10 10 1999 22-9 10
But the fuss over the Jays is a tiny fraction of the ‘Zags because Creighton has only two tourney wins in those six appearances. With their year-to-year consistency, it’s surprising that they aren’t getting much attention nationally going into ‘05-‘06. There’s no deadlier guard combo in the nation from long range than Nate Funk and Johnny Mathies (a combined 110-of-243 on threes, 45.3%). Oh yeah, Jimmy Motz patrols one of the wings and checks in at 54 for 111 (48.6%) from behind the arc. The only other team in the nation with a comparable triple threat from long range last season was Alabama.
Creighton is weak on the frontline and they don’t rebound well. But it doesn’t matter too much on the offensive end, where their shooting and ball security propelled them to 19th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency last season. They play at such a slow pace (280th nationally) that their offense is underappreciated. With the key components returning, their efficiency should only get better.
Much of the MVC love is going to Northern Iowa right now. If Creighton can get a little better defensively (86th in adjusted efficiency), they’ll be the ones getting the love deep into March.
Xavier
Xavier brings everybody back from a team that went 17-12 in Sean Miller’s first season. The big question mark is point guard Dedrick Finn. His game took a step back in 2005. His eFG% dropped to 42.9% from 52.7% in 2004 with only a slight increase in offensive workload.
Was it because of the losses of Romain Sato and Anthony Myles? Perhaps, but the ‘05 (and ‘06) frontcourt of Justin Cage, Justin Doellman and Brian Thornton is not that far off from the ‘04 version. And don’t forget about Brandon Cole, who was injured last season but posted an OR%/DR% of 13.5/23.0 for the ‘04 team that scared Duke in the Elite Eight. If Finn supplies what he did for that team, the ‘06 Muskies also will be dangerous.
Line o’ the night
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Eric Williams 25 10-12 0-0 2-5 3-9 0 3 0 2 2 22
Result: Win. Wake Forest 78, Mississippi Valley St. 64
(Hey, it’s been three days and I’m still sticking with this thing! )
Come March, somebody from Duke is going to be ACC player of the year. But don’t be surprised if a legitimate case can be made for Eric Williams, Wake’s 6-9 power forward. I wouldn’t expect him to exceed his phenomenal 63% mark from the field last season, but he’s off to a good start, admittedly against less-than-stellar competition.