Basketball Lab
01.03.06
I love the massive laboratory that college hoops provides. A couple of experiments to follow through the conference season are Iowa and Washington State. Both have a tremendous defense to go with an uninspiring offense.
Based on the embarrassingly small data set of two seasons, both teams are overachieving defensively. No team in ‘04 or ‘05 was able to maintain an adjusted defensive efficiency in the 70s which is the territory where the Cougars (79.0) and Hawkeyes (76.5) currently reside.
Nonetheless, neither squad is a fluke. Washington State has the legacy of Dick Bennett behind them and is the defending defensive efficiency champ. Iowa has Greg Brunner and Erek Hansen effectively turning the paint into a “no scoring zone”. Both teams should finish in the top five defensively.
There’s room in both the Pac 10 and Big 10 for Washington State and Iowa to snag enough wins to get an at-large bid. Whether it’s possible to do that solely on the strength of smashmouth defense, that’s what they’ll be trying to prove.
Friday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Chris Wehye 40 6-16 2-7 2-2 6-16 4 3 4 5 0 16
Result: Loss. Connecticut 111, Quinnipiac 75.
Saturday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
JP Batista 34 12-13 0-0 8-10 7-15 2 1 1 3 1 32
Result: Win. Gonzaga 102, Saint Joseph's 94.
Sunday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Corey Belser 35 10-13 3-3 0-0 0-6 1 3 2 1 0 23
Result: Win. San Diego 97, Eastern Washington 78.
Monday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Yemi Nicholson 38 10-18 0-0 2-4 4-15 0 0 0 3 4 22
Result: Win. Denver 69, Wyoming 64.
Airing of Grievances
12.22.05
Dear Ken,
Love your blog. But, why is Gonzaga overrated? They’re doing quite well against a top-10 schedule while playing without key contributors. They’ve beaten good teams in MSU and Maryland. Their losses were entirely respectable. They lost to UConn by 1 after playing three overtimes the night before, and they lost to Washington by 4 after Derek Raivio got injured halfway through the first half (He played 11 minutes).
If Knight, Heytvelt, and Raivio were all healthy for all of this season, Gonzaga might very well be undefeated and probably ranked #2 behind Duke.
Memphis is a tough game because it’s at their place, and Gonzaga might lose. They might even lose by double digits. But, let’s not forget how understaffed they are because of injuries right now. You are right to point out that Gonzaga plays porous defense. Well, Knight and Heytvelt are two of the top 3 defenders on the team. Neither have played a game at full strength this year. Additionally, Heytvelt would have provided a consistent 4th scoring option, diversifying an offense that seems to be a bit too dependent on Morrison, Batista, and Raivio.
Tom
Saying Gonzaga is overrated is one of the great taboos in today’s society. Which is part of the reason why I like to say it. But the other part is that there’s a shred of truth in it. At times Gonzaga has looked like a legit top ten team - taking UConn to the wire is easily the best example. But their last two games have been shaky. They didn’t secure the lead for good against either Virginia or Eastern Washington until the 5 minute mark of the second half. The reality of how good the Zags are probably lies somewhere in between.
And yeah, there have been injuries. But Knight isn’t going to add much offensively. He’ll have to beg to get the ball from Raivio, because once Batista or Morrison gets it, it’s going up, as it should with those guys. Defensively, he’s an improvement, but he was a part of last season’s defensive disaster, so I’m not holding my breath for a big impact from Mr. Knight.
The bottom line is I just think some questions need to be asked about the Zags. It seems like most analysts are so hellbent on promoting them as a Final Four team, because that would be such a great story, that they lose all objectivity. I mean, when it comes to teams from mid-major conferences, the Gonzaga-to-Bucknell publicity ratio should be a little closer than it is. Obviously Morrison has something to do with that, and rightfully so.
In fact, one of the very people that put Gonzaga in the Final Four recently said that Memphis was undeserving of their current ranking. Guess we’ll get a good idea if that’s true or not on Tuesday. I’m prepared to chow down on some crow if necessary. But looking at what each team has done so far, Gonzaga would do well to keep it close.
Line o’ the Night
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Fats Cuyler 37 9-12 5-8 0-0 1-2 8 2 2 4 0 23
Result: Win. Middle Tennessee 90, Florida Atlantic 76.
Just for the name.
In Your Face Dis-Graceland
12.21.05
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Rodney Carney 30 14-25 5-10 4-4 6-10 2 0 4 2 0 37
Result: Win. Memphis 76, Louisiana Tech 58.
It’s occurred to me that I’ve been a little too focused on the overrated so far this season (Houston, hello!). So let’s promote a team that deserves a little more attention.
It’s no fun to be the last person on your block to know something. By this time next week, everyone, including your grandma, will be talking about how great Memphis is. They’ll be coming off a win over my favorite overrated team, Gonzaga. So talk the Tigers up before the weekend. Seriously, if Gonzaga pulls off a win in next Tuesday’s game, it will be the most impressive thing they’ve done since, well, maybe in the whole Mark Few era. I’d be impressed if they kept the margin within single digits.
Not only has Memphis won all but one contest comfortably, they are doing it against a top-ten schedule. They’ve undergone a metamorphosis with about a 15% increase in tempo from last season, giving themselves more chances to show their dominance in a game. Oddly, they’re concerned about defense, but that’s consistently been their strength. They forced 26 La. Tech turnovers last night. Given how soft their conference is, Memphis is the odds-on pick to have the fewest losses entering the tournament.
(And you should know that Carney’s six offensive boards were second-best in this game to a certain Mr. dORsey, who vaulted from 10th to 4th in the nation in OR%.)