the kenpom.com blog

A Crying Notre Shame

02.22.06

My savant skills tell me Notre Dame will be the best team left out of March Madness. In fact, there will probably be 5 to 10 at-large teams that are worse than the Irish. They have outscored conference opponents by 33 points, suggesting an 8-5 record would be more appropriate than the 4-9 one they own after last night’s loss to UConn.

The Irish have one of the best backcourts in the country, and their offense is smoking hot. Last night was a classic example of how raw FG% can mislead you about a team’s performance. ND shot 31 of 82, for 37.8%, yet was outstanding offensively. Any time you can put up a point per possession on UConn, you have done well. The reason they got there was 16 offensive boards and only 4 turnovers. Then throw in that 10 of the made field goals were threes, and you have an offensive recipe that gives you a chance to shock the Huskies at their place.

By the way, you want to know the reason why UConn appears to be a great offensive rebounding team (ranked 4th) and a not-as-great defensive rebounding team (48th)? I don’t know this for sure, but I’d guess it has to do with blocked shots being difficult to rebound defensively. Think about it - there’s really no boxing out going on in this situation. It’s closer to a regular loose ball play. In last night’s Big East record block performance, Notre Dame got offensive rebounds on 11 of the 19 UConn blocks. In Notre Dame’s 20 point/11 possession run that erased the Huskies’ 17 point lead midway through the second half, they had five of their shots blocked. But they rebounded four of them, thus their efficiency could still be through the roof.

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
Marcus Williams        42  6-16  3-5  3-4  3-10 13 0 1  1  1   18
Result: Win. Connecticut 75, Notre Dame 74. (OT)

Pitt ‘06 != BC ‘05

01.31.06

There have been a few comparisons made between this season’s Pitt squad and last season’s Boston College team. To refresh your memory, here are the similarites:

- Both are/were Big East teams.
- Both were expected to finish in the middle of the conference (Blue Ribbon had each forecasted for 6th).
- Both had a weak non-conference schedule.
- Both were among the last three unbeatens nationally.

BC went 5-5 after a 20-0 start, losing in the first round of the Big East Tournament and in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to a 12-seed. Ergo, it is implied Pitt may be headed for a similar fate, or at least you should be wary about projecting much success for them.

But I say, buy into Pitt. These teams are different. I wasn’t running the Pythagorean rankings last season, but I was curious where BC would have been at this time in 2005, when they were 18-0 and ranked #5 in the AP poll. Turns out they were 21st in Pythagorean. Pitt currently ranks 10th.

BC really played down to weaker competition a lot during the win streak. Pitt isn’t doing that. The Panthers will lose a few the rest of the way - the Big East will do that to everyone. But don’t slap the “overrated” label on them yet.

Line o’ the Night

                           FG    3pt  FT    Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A   O-T  A F S TO BLK Pts
Aaron Gray             33  7-10  0-0  9-10  4-12 3 4 0  3  2   23
Result: Loss. Connecticut 80, Pittsburgh 76.

Gray is the best overall rebounder in the country - 7th in OR% and 3rd in DR%. And if you can rebound against UConn, you can rebound against anyone.

Replacing Louisville

01.10.06

Polls are silly and there’s nothing more silly than Louisville being ranked #10 in the latest AP poll. Presumably, writers were impressed with that five point win at Providence on Saturday, because that is the best thing the Cards have done so far.

With that in mind, I offer a few suggestions for teams that writers can use to replace Louisville with in next Monday’s poll.

Arizona - If Washington is #13 (which is where they are in the latest AP poll), then Arizona sounds right at #10. Currently, the Wildcats are #24 which means a few folks have given Louisville a lofty ranking while leaving a solid Arizona club out entirely.

The rest of these teams are unranked:

Xavier - Granted, their schedule strength is not stellar. But the Muskies have looked better in their two losses (by a total of five points against Illinois in Chicago and at Creighton) than Louisville has.

Northern Iowa - At 14-2, has three wins better than anything Louisville has - at LSU, at Missouri St., and hosting Iowa. The MVC won’t get a ranked team this season because, among other reasons, the top half of the conference is too competitive. I’m not saying there’s much of a case for UNI to be #10, but the case is better than it is for Louisville.

Iowa - I have had a lot of requests to do efficiency margin rankings, but the pythagorean calculations are a better synthesis of offensive/defensive ratings. In most cases it doesn’t make much difference, but Iowa is the extreme case that provides an exception. Compare the teams at #14 and #15 in pythagorean winning percentage.

           AdjOE   AdjDE    EM    PythWin%
Ohio St.   118.3    91.2   27.1    .931 
Iowa        97.6    75.5   22.1    .929

Ohio State has a much better efficiency margin than Iowa, yet by pythagorean their play so far has been nearly equal. Why? Not to overly-nerdify things, but it has to do with standard deviation. It’s more difficult for an Iowa opponent which has a D-rating of 75 to post a D-rating of 100 than it is for a Buckeye opponent which averages around 90 to get to 115. I know that’s probably confusing. Read it a few times before you send me an angry e-mail. Anyway, Iowa’s offense is unworthy of top ten consideration, but their D deserves the publicity a top ten ranking would give it.

Winthrop - OK, if you’re going to throw away your vote, why not give it to a team that’s overachieving in total obscurity? Winthrop has lost to Auburn, Alabama, South Carolina, and Memphis on the road. But only the loss to South Carolina was lopsided. They also have a seven point win at Marquette. Winthrop will probably go 16-0 in the Big South and may get a weak Bracket Buster opponent since they have no shot at an at-large. Just remember that Craig Bradshaw & Co. will give a scare to a four-seed in the first round of the tourney, and may have a very lengthy winning streak on the line when they do. Then let the bidding war for Coach Gregg Marshall begin.