All For One
02.28.06
So Oklahoma pulled off an astounding fourth straight one-point victory last night. This hasn’t been done before in the limited data I have. Three straight one-point wins has only been done once since the ‘99 season - two years ago by High Point. If you have followed this streak, you have seen some examples of how luck is a large factor in determining the outcome of close games. As a further demonstration, I pulled every occurrence of a team playing two consecutive one-point games in the last eight seasons. Here were the results:
Record Times 2-0 43 1-1 84 0-2 33
This works out almost the way a coin flip situation should. You’d expect 25% in each of the first and last bins and 50% in the middle one. Take 3 each from the 2-0 and 1-1 and put them in the 0-2 and that’s exactly what you would have. I don’t know what this proves, as the outcome of one-point games is not totally determined by luck - you’d expect talent to have some impact. It would be more instructive to look at cases where there is a big talent gap and see how the favorite fared in these games.
Line o’ the Night
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Paul Millsap 35 8-13 0-0 4-5 7-18 2 3 1 2 0 20
Result: Win. Louisiana Tech 74, Idaho 49.
Lost in the hysteria over the scoring title is that Millsap is in a tough battle for his third consecutive rebounding crown with Hartford’s Kenny Adeleke. With this effort, it’s Millsap 13.069 rpg, Adeleke 13.037 rpg. Conference tournaments will decide this one.
Line o’ the Night: 1904 Style
02.08.06
Not much for today, since I have a column going up on espn.com later. A cool thing I came across when doing research for it was a database of boxscores for every game West Virginia has ever played. It’s an interesting page if you ever want to see the evolution of the box score. I know it seems far-fetched that there will ever be a possession count in the official box, but back in 1904, my great-grandpappy was looking forward to the day when field goal attempts would be tracked.
Line o’ the Night
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Curtis Jerrells 34 11-14 5-6 1-2 1-2 2 0 2 2 0 28
Result: Win. Baylor 90, Missouri 64.
In 1904, this would have looked like…
FG FT Pts Curtis Jerrells 11 1 23
Practice Makes Perfect…ly Bad
01.22.06
Some random notes from the weekend that was…
- Baylor is close to owning the triple crown of bad shooting. They currently rank dead last in the nation in free throw shooting and three-point shooting. There are only 17 teams worse than Baylor in the two point shooting department. This is a combination of Baylor being not very good and having to play the nation’s most difficult schedule. All of Baylor’s raw stats are going to look worse than they should this season. Well, except for the free throws.
- The mystique of Saint Louis’s bipolar record continued with a stunning upset against emotionally deflated Xavier last night. This is good news for Saint Joe’s. The Hawks are on the verge of A-10 irrelevance and badly need a win. Fortunately they have to go Saint Louis on Wednesday.
- If you want another interesting progression of a team this season, try Indiana State:
W W W W W W W W L L L L L L L L L
And they really don’t have an upcoming game that screams out for a W.
- For those of you whose life is ruled by the RPI, you are missing what Kansas is doing. With an RPI of 112, they are not showing up in anyone’s “season ended today” bracket projections. But that’s precisely why those projections are of little value two months before the season really ends. I dare say were it not for four bad minutes (the last three against Kansas State and the last one against Missouri), more than a few people would be thinking that KU could challenge Texas for the Big XII title. Their defense is among the best in the land, and though their offense is wildly inconsistent, when it’s on, it too is among the best. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say they’ll be a top five team next season if everyone stays.
- If you make predictions about the Pac-10, do so with many qualifiers. Washington State, like Arizona two weekends ago, lost to the Oregon teams. However, unlike Arizona, WSU did so at home and effectively ruined its tournament chances. The Cougs have a lot of close losses, and are better than their Pac-10 record, blah blah blah. All that makes them is a team with a poor record.
Thursday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Bobby Dixon 36 6-15 1-7 5-7 2-9 16 2 5 2 0 18
Result: Win. Troy 76, Western Kentucky 49.
Friday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
James Holmes 44 12-22 6-12 5-7 0-0 3 4 3 5 0 35
Result: Loss. Seton Hall 94, South Florida 89. (OT)
It’s good to see the national playing time leader was able to get a breather.
Saturday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Jevon Randolph 35 14-21 1-5 5-6 2-4 1 3 2 3 1 34
Result: Win. Savannah State 70, Longwood 69.
It was SSU’s first win against a D1 team in their last 47 tries.
Sunday
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Brion Rush 42 13-34 3-12 7-8 0-10 2 4 3 3 0 36
Result: Win. Grambling 77, Jackson State 73. (OT)
Mr. Rush almost makes Kobe seem unselfish.