the kenpom.com blog

Selection Sunday Is Here

03.12.06

Today we’ll get an honest assessment from the selection committee as to whether they feel the road-rage RPI really is better than the old version. If most of the bracketologists are correct, at least one of [Missouri State, Hofstra, George Mason] will not get a bid. All three are in the RPI top 30 and their omission would represent the first time in at least a while, and possibly since the RPI was first used in 1981, that a team ranked that high got snubbed. So that would speak volumes about the committee’s opinion of the current formula. Fans of those teams should not despair, however. Tony Mejia of CBS Sportsline, one of the few to nail the entire field last season, has the CAA getting three bids and the MVC getting five.

There is a hidden story here about the trouble the NCAA has had in getting correct data into the RPI. It’s very possible that the rankings you see on my page are different from what the NCAA is looking at. Every week since the NCAA began publishing the RPI, they have had an error in their games database. And seeing how it takes them at least 24 hours to post the RPI, I doubt they are looking at accurate information today.

The committee has probably already made the decision on who gets the #1 seeds, and it’s a close call between Memphis and Ohio State for the last one. As many people have pointed out, it matters little which one gets the top seed, as both will probably be placed in the same bracket. However, it’s not an irrelevant distinction as the 2-seed more than likely will get a tougher opponent in the sweet sixteen than the 1-seed. The strong finish by UAB - they’ve only had one non-Memphis loss since the middle of December - really helps the Tigers’ case for a 1.

Speaking of the Buckeyes, how about the slump Je’Kel Foster is going through? He’s made just one of his last 25 three point attempts and 7 of his last 52, yet still carries a respectable 41.4% accuracy on three pointers for the season. Ohio State may well be seeded as the toughest 2-seed, but without a productive Foster, they’ll be the first to lose.

Thursday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T  A F  S TO BLK Pts
Leon Powe              31  5-11  0-0 12-17 5-20 0 3  0  0  0   22
Result: Win. Cal 82, USC 67.

Friday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T  A F  S TO BLK Pts
Justin Williams        37  4-5   0-0  2-6  3-15 1 3  1  2 12   10
Result: Win. Wyoming 60, Utah 47.

Saturday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T  A F  S TO BLK Pts
Christian Maraker      40  9-11  3-5  2-4  1-11 3 1  2  3  2   23
Result: Win. Pacific 78, Long Beach State 70.

Loose Ends

03.02.06

- With UAB’s win over Memphis, Ohio State or Illinois has a realistic shot at a one-seed, and may well control their destiny. Illinois is more of a darkhorse in this regard, but they have six wins over the RPI top 25 with three of them away from home. If either wins out, they’ll have a great case.

- I received some nice feedback about the stuff on pre-tourney favorites yesterday. Here are some amendments: In 2002, Kansas had somewhere close to equal billing to Duke, and lost in the Final Four. And in ‘93, Kentucky and Michigan were as popular (if not moreso) a pick as UNC.

- I envy folks privileged enough to be at the Savvis Center today. Tourney implications galore today in four Arch Madness games. It could get wild today, but not any wilder than Indiana State scoring 10 points in the first half against Drake last night and then posting 62 in the second half.

- Nice job by Syracuse last night. With their tourney hopes still in limbo, they surrendered 108 points on 66 possessions against DePaul. Easily the worst defensive game in all the land this season. Morehead State did a better job containing UConn. And the Orange were 21st in adjDE entering the game.

Line o’ the Night

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
Maurice Latham         36  7-11  1-1  4-4  3-12  5 2 0  5  0   19
Result: Loss. Belmont 90, Campbell 76.

Let It Be March

03.01.06

It seems like the OK St game is killing [Texas]. The win one for Eddie S. thing bit them, but the treatment seems harsh. Is this team a legitimate No.1 seed with real Nat’l. Championship aspirations or this year really just a two team race? CK

This has been the week to anoint UConn as the lead dog in the college hoops scene. A win over Villanova coupled with losses by Duke and Texas have clarified things dramatically. At least for the moment.

And right now there is little doubt that UConn is the best team in basketball right now. There’s still some time for them to change my mind. To be honest, had UConn lost to Notre Dame, I don’t think you’d be seeing so much pro-UConn material.

But being the pre-tournament favorite is by no means a guarantee of winning it all. If you give me the choice, I’ll take the other 64 teams and you can have UConn. And just as a reminder, here’s how the pre-tournament favorite(s) fared in recent years. (Pre-tournament favorite(s) based on my memory and subject to error. Feel free to correct me on these.)

2005 - UNC/Illinois. UNC won.
2004 - Duke/UConn. UConn won.
2003 - Arizona/Kentucky. Neither made the Final Four.
2002 - Duke. Lost in sweet sixteen.
2001 - Duke. Won it all.
2000 - Can’t remember a clear favorite. Cincinnati would have been were it not for the late injury to Kenyon Martin.
1999 - Duke. Lost in the final.
1998 - Arizona. Lost in the elite eight.
1997 - Kansas. Lost in the sweet sixteen.
1996 - Kentucky. Won it all.
1995 - UCLA. Won it all.
1994 - Arkansas. Won it all.
1993 - UNC. Won it all.
1992 - Duke. Won it all.
1991 - UNLV. Lost in the Final Four.