Shooting Percentage and Height
05.30.06
Apparently, the relationship between rebounding and height didn’t rock the foundation of the basketball community. The connection between shooting percentage and height isn’t going to create any waves, either.
As seen in the chart below, bigger players have a better two-point shooting percentage and shoot fewer 3’s than their smaller counterparts. We didn’t need to do statistical research to figure that out. But like the rebounding chart, this exercise is not without a couple of noteworthy findings. (Note: some additional background on how this chart was developed can be found in the previous post. Those unfamiliar with some of the terms used in these posts should refer to the Glossary of Terms.)
First, players that shoot fewer 3’s tend to have a better eFG%. This is a broad generalization and perhaps a slight mischaracterization of the chart, but take a look at it. As players get taller, they take fewer 3’s (as shown by the 2pt% and eFG% converging) and yet see a rise in their eFG%. Despite the fact that the percentage of field goals shot from behind the arc increased for the 20th consecutive season in 2006, there remains a place for an effective inside scorer man on the offensive end.
Second, taller players are worse free throw shooters. This shouldn’t be a surprise in itself, but at least now it’s quantified. If your big man is clanging more than his fair share of free throws, cut him a little slack. For me, the deeper issue pertains to why this is the case. Long-time readers of this space know that free throw shooting is a pet peeve of mine. Not the shooting itself, but the perception that modern players are especially poor at it compared to those of long ago.
This is false, and according to the NCAA, the 2006 season tied for the 7th best free throw shooting season since 1948. So if you’re looking for evidence that kids don’t practice the fundamentals, don’t use free throw shooting to help your case.
But if you watch enough games on TV next season, I’m sure you’ll hear an analyst bemoan the current state of free throw shooting. And why is that? I think a part of it is the belief that with enough practice, anyone can be a great free throw shooter. But free throw shooting is a skill like any other. Some have natural talent for it and some don’t, and most are somewhere in between. And yes, practice can produce some improvement. But Joey Dorsey will not become Steve Novak, no matter how hard he tries.
This graph speaks to that to some extent. Big players typically struggle from the line more than guards. Is that because guards practice free throws more? Probably not. You could say that the other things that guards practice lend themselves to better free throw shooting. Or you could say that smaller players generally have better touch than taller players. It’s probably a combination of those two things, and perhaps some other factors I haven’t thought of.
I’d like to focus on the touch aspect of this. Recently, I’ve been thinking that if you want to know what kind of mid-range game an interior player has, free throw shooting can be revealing, because free throw shooting relates to touch, or so I think. This concept relates to smaller players also, except that they usually have a big enough sample of 3-point attempts to give us a more accurate idea of how they shoot. But if this theory has any validity, then there should be relationship between free throw accuracy and 3-point accuracy.
It turns out there is a connection, admittedly weak, between free throw percentage and 3-point percentage. Moreover, in limited cases we can use free throw percentage to assess who may have had circumstances beyond his control in his favor (or against him), and thus is due for a correction in 3-point accuracy this season. More to come…
Rebounding and Height
05.11.06
It’s no secret that height is a factor in rebounding. We’d like to think it’s about desire and hustle, and to some extent it is, but being tall and having some springs is what matters most. What follows is a listing by height of the player that had the best rebounding percentage in the country in ‘06, with a playing time minimum of 40%.
One thing to remember is that schools provide the measurements, and they are under no obligation to give accurate ones. The seemingly abnormal amount of players listed at exactly 6 feet is the best example of height fudging. There are obviously a few 5-10 and 5-11 players being given the benefit of the doubt.
7-2 (1 qualifier):
Defensive: Roy Hibbert, Georgetown…22.0%
Offensive: Roy Hibbert, Georgetown…15.1%
7-1 (2 qualifiers):
Defensive: Luke Nevill, Utah…24.8
Offensive: Luke Nevill, Utah…11.8
7-0 (13 qualifiers):
Defensive: Aaron Gray, Pitt…27.0
Offensive: Aaron Gray, Pitt…15.7
6-11 (47 qualifiers):
Defensive: John Bryant, Santa Clara…26.6
Offensive: Boomer Herndon, Belmont…18.7
6-10 (75 qualifiers):
Defensive: Justin Williams, Wyoming…25.1
Offensive: Chaz Crawford, Drexel…15.5
6-9 (148 qualifiers):
Defensive: Tyrus Thomas, LSU…26.4
Offensive: Kenny Adeleke, Hartford…17.6
6-8 (179 qualifiers):
Defensive: Rashad Jones-Jennings, Ark. Little Rock…29.7
Offensive: Paul Millsap, La. Tech…18.1
6-7 (180 qualifiers):
Defensive: Randal Falker, Southern Illinois…23.9
(tie) Clarence Matthews, Tennessee St…23.9
Offensive: Diamon Simpson, Saint Mary’s…16.3
6-6 (212 qualifiers):
Defensive: Ivan Almonte, Florida International…27.9
Offensive: Leon Young, Loyola Chicago…14.7
6-5 (196 qualifiers):
Defensive: Courtney Bradley, Jacksonville St…22.3
Offensive: Jordan Nichols, American…14.9
6-4 (200 qualifiers):
Defensive: Obie Nwadike, Central Connecticut…24.1
Offensive: Obie Nwadike, Central Connecticut…14.1
6-3 (182 qualifiers):
Defensive: Earnest Daney, New Orleans…18.7
Offensive: Charron Fisher, Niagara…12.0
6-2 (206 qualifiers):
Defensive: Aubin Scott, Long Island…18.0
Offensive: Jayson Obazuaye, Colorado…8.6
6-1 (127 qualifiers):
Defensive: Rajon Rondo, Kentucky…18.7
Offensive: Kojo Mensah, Siena…9.8
6-0 (122 qualifiers):
Defensive: Temi Soyebo, UNCW…15.7
Offensive: Tony Lee, Robert Morris…10.7
5-11 (64 qualifiers):
Defensive: Paul Gause, Seton Hall..14.2
Offensive: Linas Lekavicius, American…8.8
5-10 (47 qualifiers):
Defensive: Bobby Dixon, Troy…13.4
Offensive: Jon Goode, Detroit…4.4
5-9 (26 qualifiers):
Defensive: Terrell Brown, Charleston Southern…10.4
Offensive: Darrin Shine, Delaware St…4.1
5-8 (10 qualifiers):
Defensive: Jay Greene, UMBC…10.4
Offensive: DJ Thompson, Appalachian St…3.8
5-7 (2 qualifiers):
Defensive: Catravia Givens, Jackson St…7.6
Offensive: Catravia Givens, Jackson St…1.9
5-6 (3 qualifiers):
Defensive: Alleo Frazier, Alcorn St…8.0
Offensive: Jeremiah Dominguez, Portland…5.0
Finally, I offer you a graph of average rebounding percentage by height. Often, role can have a significant influence on a player’s rebounding percentage, but this graph does indicate what a baseline level rebounding ability should be for taller players. If you’re in the 6-8 to 6-10 range and not a 3-point specialist, then you are doing your height a disservice if you are in the single digits in offensive rebounding.
A Correction
01.26.06
Ryan K. had a beef with my leniency on Marco Killingsworth yesterday. So I decided to do a little investigating. How does Killingsworth’s TORate compare with other high usage players around the country? There are 27 players that have used over 30% of their team’s possessions (minimum 40% minutes played).
Here are the most turnover prone of those 27.
Player TORate Robinson, Rhode Island 26.3 Gordon, Stetson 26.1 Owens, UT San Antonio 25.9 Farmar, UCLA 25.8 Killingsworth, Indiana 25.3 Smith, E. Tenn St. 24.5 Smith, Colorado St. 23.1 Singletary, UVa 22.8 Mensah, Siena 22.5 Guions, NC A&T 22.4
This makes me wonder why Jordan Farmar is occasionally celebrated. Sure he piles up assists, but he commits a lot of turnovers and is an ordinary shooter (47% eFG).
For your curiosity, here are the ultra-high usage players that commit the fewest turnovers.
Player TORate Tucker, Wisconsin 11.3 Morrison, Gonzaga 11.6 Polk, Butler 12.0 Powe, Cal 12.8 Johnson, Jackson St. 13.7 Clark, St. Peter's 15.1 Blair, Liberty 15.1 Booker, SE Missouri St. 15.3 Rush, Grambling 15.3 Brown, San Jose St. 15.6
I had doubts about whether someone who spends as much time in traffic as Killingsworth does could have a low TORate, but if you’ve seen Leon Powe play at all, you know he spends little time outside the paint.
The interesting thing for me is that ultra-high usage players have a slightly lower TORate as a group than your run-of-the-mill high usage players. Killingsworth has the 5th highest TORate out of 28 players with a usage above 30%. If we expand the sample to players with a usage greater than 25%, he ranks 35th out of 327, which based on the sample size is a little worse.
Needless to say, Indiana’s offense will be that much more efficient if Killingsworth’s teammates become more involved in the offense. It really could be the one thing that keeps them from a deep tournament run.
Line o’ the Night
FG 3pt FT Reb
Min M-A M-A M-A O-T A F S TO BLK Pts
Nik Caner-Medley 39 8-12 2-2 15-16 4-9 0 2 1 4 1 33
Result: Win. Maryland 86, Georgia Tech 74.
If this Nik Caner-Medley plays the rest of the season, Maryland won’t miss Chris McCray much.