Yearly Archives: 2017

In our last installment, we discussed the degree to which past home-scoring advantage predicts future home-scoring advantage. We can look at other stats and derive home advantages from them. For an example, let’s use home steals advantage. Like home-scoring advantage, this is the difference between a team’s home steal margin and road margin. In conference […]

Who has the largest home-court advantage in college basketball? How many points is it worth? Well, I have some bad news for you: It is really impossible to answer these questions with much precision. We can look at the box score of a game and see how many points a team won by or how […]

There is one final obligation to tend to before the books can be closed on the 2017 season and that is the revealing of the 2017 kenpom.com player of the year. This season’s honoree is Villanova’s Josh Hart who closed out a distinguished four-year run at Villanova in style. This season, Hart posted a 122 offensive […]

There were 1,930 games between Division-I teams in February and March. Here are the wildest things that happened during the months: Biggest Upsets [Tournament games only] March 2: #305 Campbell 81, #98 UNC Asheville 79 (OT) (11.7%) The biggest upset of single-elimination basketball was the seven-seed over the two-seed in Big South quarterfinal action. But the story of this […]

Hey coaches, my offer for scheduling help is back for a second season. I can provide you a spreadsheet with a first cut of expected ratings for every team next season which will include a list of all 351 D-I teams with overall ranking, and national rankings in offense, defense, and tempo. It will be updated […]

Some say it’s too early to do this. Others say it’s too late. Someday, people will produce living, breathing projections for the following season that update with every personnel move of the offseason and nobody will think anything of it. I am not doing that yet, at least not publicly. But for now it’s time to […]

The group of 16-seeds aren’t particularly strong this season, so it’s tough to get too excited about the possibility of a one-seed losing its first game. (The best chance for it will easily be NC Central against Kansas should it happen.) But if a 16-seed is really, truly serious about beating a one-seed, it should […]

Here are the chances each team makes it to each round based on my current ratings. Go Zags? Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1W Gonzaga 98.5 83.9 60.2 45.4 29.6 20.5 1E Villanova 96.8 70.2 43.4 28.3 16.0 10.0 1S North Carolina 98.0 78.6 57.3 33.3 19.9 9.9 2S Kentucky 95.6 56.2 36.1 21.0 […]

Ivy League (conference rank: 17th) March 11-12 All games at Penn. kPOY: Steven Cook, Princeton Regular season champ: Princeton (preseason #36 / 1st Ivy, current #61) Overachiever: Penn (preseason #231, current #163) Underachiever: Dartmouth (preseason #216, current #304) The Ivy League debuts a real tournament this season and as it turns out, the league’s braintrust picked the exact worst format […]

Western Athletic Conference (conference rank: 21st) March 9-11 All games at Las Vegas. kPOY: Dewayne Russell, Grand Canyon Regular season champ: Cal State Bakersfield (preseason #129 / 1st WAC, current #110) Overachiever: Utah Valley (preseason #321, current #196) Underachiever: Chicago State (preseason #339, current #339) It was just two seasons ago that the WAC was ranked 31st among conferences. But things […]