Monthly Archives: March 2015

The NRG effect

[Note: This post has been updated with the games from a 2002 regular-season triple-header played at Reliant Stadium where teams shot reasonably well. Thanks to @botskey for the tip. NRG still seems hostile to shooters, but per David Worlock’s information, I’m still open to the possibility of randomness.] [Update 2: The 2002 games apparently had […]

Jump ball data

In responding to a request from the New York Times’ Marc Tracy, I determined how each team fared in jump balls this season. Kentucky is the best, which is detailed in Marc’s article, but you might be curious where other teams stand. That data is provided below. Keep in mind I did this by looking […]

Sweet 16 log5

Here’s the log5 for the sweet sixteen using ratings as of Monday morning… Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… Pvs 1MW Kentucky 88.5 72.3 46.6 36.4 3 33.8 2W Arizona 83.8 53.5 27.5 19.7 5 13.9 1W Wisconsin 72.1 34.4 15.1 9.8 10 10.5 2S Gonzaga 76.8 37.8 24.9 8.4 12 5.4 1S Duke 54.4 […]

And if the betting markets for the first night of the NIT are any indication, scoring will go up by about 7%. Here’s a comparison of my predicted total score, which doesn’t account for the 30-second shot clock and larger restricted area being used, and those provided at Pinnacle for the seven NIT games tonight. […]

Below is the outcome of applying the log5 equation to my ratings. All values represent the percent chance of a team advancing to a particular round based on this humble model. No injuries or personnel issues are taken into account and the current rating is considered to be the true reflection of each team’s strength. […]

With conference tournament season wrapping up today, let’s look back at the five least-likely events over the past two weeks. This is based on the log5 analyses produced for each tournament so I’m not looking at any in-game scenarios. (So you won’t see Albany, whose championship game comeback overcame a 3.4% chance of winning.) 5. […]

Ivy League log5

During championship week, there’s lots of sympathy going around to teams that win their regular-season crown but fail to win the conference’s automatic bid. Some sympathy is deserved, but most of these teams are the big dog in their conference in terms of resources and tradition. Murray State and Iona will be back next season […]

WAC log5

Last season, the WAC tournament featured a two-seed in New Mexico State that had greater than a 60 percent chance of winning the event. The Aggies are clearly the best team in the league again, but this season their record reflects it. They finished 13-1, five games clear of their nearest challengers. New Mexico State […]

Big West log5

Perhaps the biggest surprise in all of college hoops has been UC Davis’s rise to the top of the Big West standings. Jim Les’s squad didn’t play the most challenging of non-conference schedules, but nonetheless has lost just five games all season, including a 16-2 record in conference play. (Although one sage observer predicted the […]

Big Sky log5

The Big Sky rewards its regular-season champ with hosting duties for the conference tourney. This season, the scramble for that very important distinction was pretty wild with four teams in the mix over the final two weeks. Montana improbably gave itself a shot at hosting by winning at Eastern Washington 77-76 on February 28. But […]