Monthly Archives: March 2014

San Diego State enters Thursday’s game with Arizona with what seems to be a remarkable streak. They’ve won 119 consecutive games when they have led with five minutes to go. The last time they blew a lead with five minutes left was on January 9, 2010. The Aztecs were up 14 with the ball with […]

I’ve tweeted about this a couple times, but it’s worth documenting in a more permanent location: This season, free throws were shot at a better rate than in any previous season in the history of college basketball. To date, my calculations indicate that D-I teams have made 69.82 percent of their attempts from the free […]

Sweet 16 log5

Here’s the log5 for the Sweet 16… Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in Pvs 1S Florida 70.8% 58.9% 38.5% 22.6% 4 12.9% 1W Arizona 72.6 50.7 30.2 18.0 6 15.9 4MW Louisville 69.8 46.6 27.9 16.6 6 12.3 1E Virginia 63.0 43.3 24.0 12.6 8 11.5 11MW Tennessee 54.4 22.4 10.1 4.6 22 0.9 2W […]

Draw trumps seeding

Given Wichita State’s challenging draw, I thought I’d calculate the chances of the Shockers winning the tournament if they were given other seeds in other regions. Keep in mind their current situation gives them an 8.0% chance to win the title*. Wichita State got the one-seed is in the Midwest region. What if the Shockers […]

What follows is the master log5 for the 68-team field. At the risk of being lumped in with Rick Reilly, I will recycle the disclaimers from last year: – The calculations below represent the chance of each team advancing to a specific round based on the log5 formula and each team’s pythagorean rating. Unfamiliar with […]

Big West log5

I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Big West Conference Location: Anaheim, Ca. (Honda Center) Dates: March 13-15 Chance of bid thief: zero Current kPOY: Alan Williams, UC Santa Barbara Projections: Semis Final Champ 1 UC […]

WAC log5

I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Western Athletic Conference Location: Las Vegas (Orleans Arena) Dates: March 13-15 Chance of bid thief: zero Current kPOY: Daniel Mullings, New Mexico State Projections: Semis Final Champ 2 New […]

Sun Belt log5

I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Sun Belt Conference Location: New Orleans (Lakefront Arena) Dates: March 13-16 Chance of bid thief: zero Current kPOY: Elfrid Payton, Louisiana-Lafayette Projections: Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Georgia St. […]

Big Sky log5

I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Big Sky Conference Location: Weber State Dates: March 13-15 Chance of bid thief: zero Current kPOY: Davion Berry, Weber State Projections: Semis Final Champ 1 Weber St. 100 76.9 […]

Big Ten log5

I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Big Ten Conference Location: Indianapolis (Bankers Life Fieldhouse) Dates: March 13-16 Chance of bid thief: 6 percent (presuming top six seeds are at-larges) Current kPOY: Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin Projections: […]