What follows is the master log5 for the 68-team field. At the risk of being lumped in with Rick Reilly, I will recycle the disclaimers from last year:
– The calculations below represent the chance of each team advancing to a specific round based on the log5 formula and each team’s pythagorean rating. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.
– This does not necessarily represent Ken Pomeroy’s opinion. There are subjective factors which this analysis does not include. Please use it responsibly.
– Don’t interpret these numbers as saying Ken Pomeroy’s computer is predicting Arizona will win the tournament. It’s saying there’s an 84% chance they won’t.
– If you doubt that seeding doesn’t matter (much) check out how similar the order of these teams is to the team’s ranking in my system. Louisville doesn’t suffer much as a four-seed. However, it’s a different story if you have to play extra game like Tennessee.
– No proximity bonus is included in any games here.
Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1W Arizona 95.8 70.8 55.5 40.2 24.9 15.9 6 1S Florida 95.7 71.6 51.2 35.7 22.6 12.9 8 4MW Louisville 87.3 71.5 44.3 31.5 19.7 12.3 8 1E Virginia 96.7 77.4 52.9 35.4 21.2 11.5 9 1MW Wichita St. 95.4 68.1 36.8 24.4 13.9 8.0 13 2E Villanova 92.3 62.3 41.3 21.0 10.8 5.0 20 3W Creighton 87.0 59.1 36.1 16.6 7.6 3.6 27 2S Kansas 88.2 58.1 34.5 16.1 8.0 3.5 29 3MW Duke 84.6 53.5 33.2 14.1 6.8 3.2 31 4E Michigan St. 84.3 51.4 22.9 12.5 5.9 2.4 41 2W Wisconsin 82.2 53.3 29.0 12.4 5.3 2.3 43 2MW Michigan 91.3 60.9 31.2 11.7 5.0 2.1 47 3S Syracuse 83.6 48.4 25.2 10.5 4.7 1.8 55 5S VCU 73.0 42.5 16.8 8.9 4.1 1.6 62 4S UCLA 73.4 39.7 15.0 7.6 3.3 1.3 79 6S Ohio St. 66.7 35.5 17.6 7.0 3.0 1.1 93 3E Iowa St. 73.2 41.2 18.6 7.4 3.0 1.0 96 4W San Diego St. 72.6 43.7 14.5 7.0 2.6 1.0 97 9S Pittsburgh 71.5 23.0 11.9 5.9 2.5 0.9 108 11MW Tennessee 40.9 20.8 11.9 4.5 2.0 0.9 117 8MW Kentucky 64.9 23.1 8.9 4.4 1.8 0.7 139 7E Connecticut 63.2 25.7 13.7 5.3 2.0 0.7 145 6E North Carolina 59.4 32.0 13.6 5.1 1.9 0.6 157 5E Cincinnati 56.3 26.8 9.9 4.6 1.8 0.6 162 8W Gonzaga 50.6 14.7 8.4 4.1 1.6 0.6 163 9W Oklahoma St. 49.4 14.1 8.0 3.9 1.4 0.6 178 7S New Mexico 56.9 24.0 11.1 3.8 1.4 0.5 222 5W Oklahoma 63.3 32.3 9.3 4.0 1.3 0.4 223 7W Oregon 60.0 27.2 11.8 3.9 1.3 0.4 233 6W Baylor 58.9 24.0 11.2 3.7 1.2 0.4 253 12E Harvard 43.7 18.3 5.8 2.4 0.8 0.2 438 11MW Iowa 26.2 11.3 5.6 1.7 0.6 0.2 451 5MW Saint Louis 57.1 14.4 4.3 1.7 0.5 0.2 638 7MW Texas 52.3 20.2 7.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 688 10S Stanford 43.1 15.5 6.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 690 11E Providence 40.6 18.1 6.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 729 10MW Arizona St. 47.7 17.5 5.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 1015 9E G. Washington 50.0 11.1 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.09 1062 8E Memphis 50.0 11.1 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.09 1070 11W Nebraska 41.1 13.7 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.09 1111 10W BYU 40.0 14.5 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.08 1255 10E Saint Joseph's 36.8 10.8 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.08 1325 11S Dayton 33.3 12.5 4.2 1.1 0.3 0.07 1494 9MW Kansas St. 35.1 8.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.06 1704 6MW Massachusetts 33.0 10.6 3.9 0.8 0.2 0.05 1834 12MW Xavier 27.2 6.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.05 2169 12W N. Dakota St. 36.7 14.0 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.04 2259 12S S.F. Austin 27.0 9.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.03 3397 8S Colorado 28.5 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.02 5169 13S Tulsa 26.6 8.3 1.6 0.43 0.1 0.02 5361 13W New Mexico St. 27.4 10.1 1.7 0.4 0.09 0.02 5845 14E N.C. Central 26.8 8.6 2.1 0.4 0.09 0.01 6848 13MW Manhattan 12.7 5.1 1.1 0.3 0.06 0.01 7639 12MW N.C. State 15.7 2.8 0.6 0.2 0.04 0.008 12948 15W American 17.8 5.1 1.1 0.2 0.02 0.004 26625 14MW Mercer 15.4 3.8 0.9 0.1 0.02 0.003 35657 13E Delaware 15.7 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.015 0.002 53891 14S Western Mich. 16.4 3.6 0.7 0.09 0.01 0.001 67027 14W La.-Lafayette 13.0 3.2 0.6 0.08 0.01 0.001 78951 15S E. Kentucky 11.8 2.4 0.4 0.05 0.006 0.0006 162840 15E Milwaukee 7.7 1.2 0.2 0.02 0.001 <.0001 992385 16W Weber St. 4.2 0.5 0.07 0.008 0.0006 <.0001 2104239 15MW Wofford 8.7 1.4 0.14 0.008 0.0006 <.0001 2248165 16MW Cal Poly 3.3 0.4 0.04 0.004 0.0003 <.0001 4225592 16S Albany 2.3 0.3 0.04 0.004 0.0003 <.0001 5124856 16S Mt. St. Mary's 2.0 0.2 0.03 0.002 0.0002 <.0001 8766968 16E Coastal Car. 3.3 0.4 0.03 0.002 0.0001 <.0001 20811710 16MW Texas Southern 1.3 0.1 0.006 0.0004 <.0001 <.0001 106501028 Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1E Virginia 96.7 77.4 52.9 35.4 21.2 11.5 9 2E Villanova 92.3 62.3 41.3 21.0 10.8 5.0 20 4E Michigan St. 84.3 51.4 22.9 12.5 5.9 2.4 41 3E Iowa St. 73.2 41.2 18.6 7.4 3.0 1.0 96 7E Connecticut 63.2 25.7 13.7 5.3 2.0 0.7 145 6E North Carolina 59.4 32.0 13.6 5.1 1.9 0.6 157 5E Cincinnati 56.3 26.8 9.9 4.6 1.8 0.6 162 12E Harvard 43.7 18.3 5.8 2.4 0.8 0.2 438 11E Providence 40.6 18.1 6.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 729 9E G. Washington 50.0 11.1 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.09 1062 8E Memphis 50.0 11.1 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.09 1070 10E Saint Joseph's 36.8 10.8 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.08 1325 14E N.C. Central 26.8 8.6 2.1 0.4 0.09 0.01 6848 13E Delaware 15.7 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.015 0.002 53891 15E Milwaukee 7.7 1.2 0.2 0.02 0.001 <.0001 992385 16E Coastal Car. 3.3 0.4 0.03 0.002 0.0001 <.0001 20811710 Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1S Florida 95.7 71.6 51.2 35.7 22.6 12.9 8 2S Kansas 88.2 58.1 34.5 16.1 8.0 3.5 29 3S Syracuse 83.6 48.4 25.2 10.5 4.7 1.8 55 5S VCU 73.0 42.5 16.8 8.9 4.1 1.6 62 4S UCLA 73.4 39.7 15.0 7.6 3.3 1.3 79 6S Ohio St. 66.7 35.5 17.6 7.0 3.0 1.1 93 9S Pittsburgh 71.5 23.0 11.9 5.9 2.5 0.9 108 7S New Mexico 56.9 24.0 11.1 3.8 1.4 0.5 222 10S Stanford 43.1 15.5 6.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 690 11S Dayton 33.3 12.5 4.2 1.1 0.3 0.07 1494 12S S.F. Austin 27.0 9.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.03 3397 8S Colorado 28.5 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.02 5169 13S Tulsa 26.6 8.3 1.6 0.43 0.1 0.02 5361 14S Western Mich. 16.4 3.6 0.7 0.09 0.01 0.001 67027 15S E. Kentucky 11.8 2.4 0.4 0.05 0.006 0.0006 162840 16S Albany 2.3 0.3 0.04 0.004 0.0003 <.0001 5124856 16S Mt. St. Mary's 2.0 0.2 0.03 0.002 0.0002 <.0001 8766968 Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 4MW Louisville 87.3 71.5 44.3 31.5 19.7 12.3 8 1MW Wichita St. 95.4 68.1 36.8 24.4 13.9 8.0 13 3MW Duke 84.6 53.5 33.2 14.1 6.8 3.2 31 2MW Michigan 91.3 60.9 31.2 11.7 5.0 2.1 47 11MW Tennessee 40.9 20.8 11.9 4.5 2.0 0.9 117 8MW Kentucky 64.9 23.1 8.9 4.4 1.8 0.7 139 11MW Iowa 26.2 11.3 5.6 1.7 0.6 0.2 451 5MW Saint Louis 57.1 14.4 4.3 1.7 0.5 0.2 638 7MW Texas 52.3 20.2 7.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 688 10MW Arizona St. 47.7 17.5 5.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 1015 9MW Kansas St. 35.1 8.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.06 1704 6MW Massachusetts 33.0 10.6 3.9 0.8 0.2 0.05 1834 12MW Xavier 27.2 6.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.05 2169 13MW Manhattan 12.7 5.1 1.1 0.3 0.06 0.01 7639 12MW N.C. State 15.7 2.8 0.6 0.2 0.04 0.008 12948 14MW Mercer 15.4 3.8 0.9 0.1 0.02 0.003 35657 15MW Wofford 8.7 1.4 0.14 0.008 0.0006 <.0001 2248165 16MW Cal Poly 3.3 0.4 0.04 0.004 0.0003 <.0001 4225592 16MW Texas Southern 1.3 0.1 0.006 0.0004 <.0001 <.0001 106501028 Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1W Arizona 95.8 70.8 55.5 40.2 24.9 15.9 6 3W Creighton 87.0 59.1 36.1 16.6 7.6 3.6 27 2W Wisconsin 82.2 53.3 29.0 12.4 5.3 2.3 43 4W San Diego St. 72.6 43.7 14.5 7.0 2.6 1.0 97 8W Gonzaga 50.6 14.7 8.4 4.1 1.6 0.6 163 9W Oklahoma St. 49.4 14.1 8.0 3.9 1.4 0.6 178 5W Oklahoma 63.3 32.3 9.3 4.0 1.3 0.4 223 7W Oregon 60.0 27.2 11.8 3.9 1.3 0.4 233 6W Baylor 58.9 24.0 11.2 3.7 1.2 0.4 253 11W Nebraska 41.1 13.7 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.09 1111 10W BYU 40.0 14.5 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.08 1255 12W N. Dakota St. 36.7 14.0 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.04 2259 13W New Mexico St. 27.4 10.1 1.7 0.4 0.09 0.02 5845 15W American 17.8 5.1 1.1 0.2 0.02 0.004 26625 14W La.-Lafayette 13.0 3.2 0.6 0.08 0.01 0.001 78951 16W Weber St. 4.2 0.5 0.07 0.008 0.0006 <.0001 2104239