What follows is the master log5 for the 68-team field. For the noobs, here’s the deal:

– The calculations below represent the chance of each team advancing to a specific round based on the log5 formula and each team’s pythagorean rating. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

– This does not represent Ken Pomeroy’s opinion. I don’t believe Florida has the best chance to win the tournament or that Pitt has the eighth-best chance, for instance.

– Don’t interpret these numbers as saying Ken Pomeroy’s computer is predicting Florida will win the tournament. It’s saying there’s a 79% chance they won’t.

– If you doubt that seeding doesn’t matter (much) check out how similar the order of these teams is to the team’s ranking in my system. Even Pitt doesn’t suffer much as an eight-seed.

Seed Team           Rd32  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in…
 3S  Florida        96.4   81.5   64.3   48.0   33.0   21.0    5
 1MW Louisville     98.7   79.9   65.3   47.7   33.0   20.2    5
 1E  Indiana        97.1   82.1   62.1   49.1   28.0   16.2    6
 1W  Gonzaga        96.1   61.1   42.5   27.9   14.7    7.5    13
 2W  Ohio St.       89.8   66.6   46.2   24.4   11.6    5.3    19
 2MW Duke           93.5   63.9   40.8   18.4    9.7    4.4    23
 1S  Kansas         95.1   69.1   42.9   18.1    9.3    4.2    24
 8W  Pitt           72.5   32.0   20.0   11.7    5.3    2.3    43
 5W  Wisconsin      70.7   51.1   22.7   12.8    5.5    2.3    44
 3MW Michigan St.   80.0   54.2   27.8   11.2    5.3    2.1    47
 4S  Michigan       86.6   57.1   29.6   11.1    5.1    2.1    49
 2E  Miami FL       87.5   59.8   40.4   15.5    5.6    2.0    49
 4E  Syracuse       90.7   63.1   23.1   14.3    5.4    2.0    49
 2S  Georgetown     89.6   60.7   20.0   10.2    4.6    1.8    55
 3W  New Mexico     83.3   47.7   20.6    7.7    2.6    0.8    123
 4MW St. Louis      78.0   44.5   12.3    5.3    2.0    0.6    155
 7MW Creighton      63.8   25.1   12.7    4.2    1.6    0.5    188
 3E  Marquette      65.8   42.4   20.6    6.3    1.8    0.5    202
 6W  Arizona        62.8   33.4   13.7    4.8    1.5    0.4    225
 5S  VCU            66.1   29.4   12.1    3.5    1.3    0.4    262
 5MW Oklahoma St.   61.6   33.0    8.4    3.4    1.2    0.4    275
 9MW Missouri       53.0   11.1    5.9    2.4    0.9    0.3    365
11S  Minnesota      60.7   12.1    5.6    2.2    0.8    0.2    445
 7S  San Diego St.  60.7   24.8    5.7    2.1    0.7    0.2    523
 8S  North Carolina 57.8   19.0    8.0    2.0    0.7    0.2    561
 8MW Colorado St.   47.0    9.0    4.5    1.7    0.6    0.2    599
 5E  UNLV           61.6   23.8    5.8    2.7    0.7    0.2    618
 8E  N.C. State     64.9   13.0    5.5    2.6    0.6    0.2    631
 7W  Notre Dame     52.5   16.7    7.7    2.3    0.6    0.2    651
 4W  Kansas St.     59.1   21.7    5.8    2.2    0.6    0.1    702
11MW St. Mary's     31.2   13.3    5.0    1.5    0.5    0.1    708
 7E  Illinois       52.6   20.1   10.2    2.5    0.6    0.1    809
10W  Iowa St.       47.5   14.2    6.2    1.7    0.4    0.1    1001
12W  Ole Miss       29.3   15.3    3.9    1.4    0.4    0.08   1180
 6MW Memphis        45.0   16.4    5.2    1.2    0.4    0.08   1215
10E  Colorado       47.4   17.1    8.2    1.9    0.4    0.08   1257
 6E  Butler         54.3   23.2    8.5    1.8    0.4    0.07   1488
11MW Middle Tenn.   23.7    9.1    3.1    0.8    0.2    0.06   1680
 9W  Wichita St.    27.5    6.6    2.7    1.0    0.2    0.06   1712
10MW Cincinnati     36.2   10.1    3.8    0.9    0.2    0.05   1917
11W  Belmont        37.2   15.4    4.6    1.1    0.2    0.05   1950
12MW Oregon         38.4   16.3    3.0    0.9    0.2    0.05   1990
 9S  Villanova      42.2   11.3    4.0    0.8    0.2    0.05   2155
 6S  UCLA           39.3    5.7    2.1    0.6    0.2    0.04   2825
14E  Davidson       34.2   16.7    5.6    1.1    0.2    0.03   3018
11E  Bucknell       45.7   17.7    5.8    1.1    0.2    0.03   3214
10S  Oklahoma       39.3   12.5    2.1    0.6    0.1    0.03   3433
12S  Akron          33.9   10.3    2.8    0.5    0.1    0.02   4420
12E  California     38.4   11.2    2.0    0.7    0.1    0.02   4859
13W  Boise St.      23.0    7.0    1.5    0.5    0.1    0.02   5011
 9E  Temple         35.1    4.5    1.3    0.4    0.07   0.01   9676
13W  La Salle       17.9    4.9    0.9    0.3    0.05   0.009  11332
14MW Valparaiso     20.0    6.9    1.5    0.2    0.05   0.007  13688
13MW New Mexico St. 22.0    6.1    0.6    0.1    0.02   0.002  43849
13S  S. Dakota St.  13.4    3.2    0.5    0.05   0.007  0.0007 147873
15W  Iona           10.2    2.5    0.5    0.06   0.007  0.0007 149621
14W  Harvard        16.7    3.6    0.5    0.06   0.006  0.0005 185251
15E  Pacific        12.5    3.0    0.7    0.07   0.005  0.0004 227653
15S  Fla Gulf Coast 10.4    2.1    0.1    0.02   0.002  0.0001 827389
13E  Montana         9.3    1.8    0.1    0.02   0.001  <.0001 1226993
14S  Northwestern St 3.6    0.6    0.08   0.009  0.0009 <.0001 1624189
15MW Albany          6.5    0.9    0.1    0.007  0.0005 <.0001 2970664
16S  W. Kentucky     4.9    0.6    0.05   0.002  0.0002 <.0001 14116410
16W  Southern        3.9    0.3    0.03   0.002  0.0001 <.0001 18436877
16E  James Madison   1.5    0.2    0.02   0.002  0.0001 <.0001 20050035
16E  LIU Brooklyn    1.4    0.2    0.02   0.002  0.0001 <.0001 21000589
16MW N.C. A&T        0.9    0.05   0.004  0.0002 <.0001 <.0001 577586835
16MW Liberty         0.5    0.02   0.001  <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 4164692791