The is the penultimate look at the 32 Monte Carlo simulations performed on each Division I conference regular season race. This will leave us with the six remaining conferences where the favorite has less than a 50/50 chance of winning its league. For those needing further explanation of what they are about to read, please consult Monday’s post, then follow up with Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s action. Please note, and I will remind you repeatedly below, that the following numbers were based on calculations that didn’t include last night’s games.
18. Missouri Valley (Wichita State, 58%)
I must admit an error in omitting the Valley from yesterday’s post. This tally doesn’t include the results from last night, but you can see why Missouri State’s upset at Creighton should make Shocker fans happy.
Wichita St. 5751 Creighton 2300 Northern Iowa 1343 Missouri St. 321 Indiana St. 175 Illinois St. 108 Drake 1 Bradley 0
12. Southland (Lamar, 53%)
Pat Knight’s done a fine job in his first season at Lamar, but he did inherit the most experienced team in the country. The Cardinals are one of the few teams that start five seniors.
Lamar 5259 Texas Arlington 2411 Texas San Antonio 2085 Stephen F. Austin 131 Northwestern St. 69 SE Louisiana 20 McNeese St. 15 Texas St. 7 Sam Houston St. 1 TAMU Corpus Christi 1
11. MEAC (Morgan State, 52%)
Coach Boze is at it again. Even with a 2-8 record, Morgan is a favorite over Norfolk State. What’s noteworthy here is that both teams are currently in the top 200. The MEAC hasn’t had multiple teams finish in the top 200 since I started tracking these kinds of things.
Morgan St. 5158 Norfolk St. 1903 NC Central 1068 Coppin St. 857 Savannah St. 597 Bethune Cookman 190 Hampton 169 Delaware St. 40 North Carolina A&T 11 Howard 8 South Carolina St. 0
10. Summit (Oral Roberts, 51%)
All three of the favorites here won in conference play last night, the Dakota brethren by a combined 63 points. So game on. These calculations do not include those results so it’s worth noting that North Dakota State’s win was over previously 2-0 Oakland.
Oral Roberts 5078 South Dakota St. 3150 North Dakota St. 1321 Oakland 431 IUPUI 11 Western Illinois 8 UMKC 1 Southern Utah 0
9. SWAC (Mississippi Valley St., 51%)
The Delta Devils have as many wins in regulation as national laughingstock Grambling (zero), and yet they are the favorite to win the SWAC. But when all the teams in the conference are taking repeated beatings from power conference teams on the road, it’s tough to put a lot of faith in these calculations.
Miss. Valley St. 5050 Jackson St. 1319 Texas Southern 949 Alabama A&M 791 Prairie View A&M 752 Ark. Pine Bluff 568 Alabama St. 356 Southern 148 Alcorn St. 67
8. Conference USA (Memphis, 50%)
Well, the doubters have been proven wrong: Memphis is better than last season. But not so much better than they are a lock to win CUSA. Marshall is a legitimate threat and Southern Miss’s chances are understated considering Darnell Dodson appears to be an impact addition after having been reinstated to the team two weeks ago.
Memphis 5012 Marshall 3094 Southern Miss 917 Tulane 361 Tulsa 223 UTEP 126 Central Florida 99 Rice 63 East Carolina 51 Houston 42 UAB 10 SMU 3
7. Horizon (Cleveland State, 50%)
No Norris Cole? No problem. Well, it’s been a slight problem because Cleveland State’s offense has been dreadful and that’s why, despite an 11-2 start that has included wins at Vanderbilt and Kent State, the Vikings are giving only a slightly better chance than Milwaukee of snagging the top seed in the Horizon.
Cleveland St. 4977 Milwaukee 3607 Butler 724 Valparaiso 413 Green Bay 185 Detroit 75 Youngstown St. 14 Loyola Chicago 3 Wright St. 2